Pac-12 Hotline: 3 Pac-12 teams — maybe 4 — a likely bet to advance through first weekend of NCAA women's tourney

Twice, the Pac-12 has sent five teams to the Sweet 16.

For that to happen in the 2023 NCAA Tournament would require some second-round upsets that seem unlikely, even for a league with the Pac-12’s depth.

But all seven participants are favored by seed in the first round, with three of them playing at home. So the pertinent question is whether the Pac-12 can match its 2017 feat and send seven teams through to the second round.

Going 7-for-7 on Friday and Saturday feels like a stretch to the Hotline, especially with a No. 8-No. 9 game and the dreaded 5-vs.-12 matchup in the lineup — not to mention No. 7 seed Arizona going into the postseason on a three-game losing streak.

A total of six wins in the first round seems more likely, and it could take some nail-biting to win that many. (A 5-2 mark would be our second choice.)

As for the second-round games scheduled for Sunday and Monday, anything less than three Sweet Sixteen teams would be a letdown for the Pac-12, although a UCLA-Oklahoma matchup would be a genuine toss-up.

Perhaps Washington State, which won the Pac-12 tournament, could upset Villanova in the second round for a fourth Pac-12 team in the Sweet Sixteen, joining Stanford, Utah and UCLA.

The Hotline doesn’t see Virginia Tech, Maryland or Duke losing at home to USC, Arizona or Colorado.

Overall, the Pac-12 has had 14 teams in the Final Four since 2008, including two in 2016 and two finalists in 2021.

Since 2016, the Pac-12 leads all conferences in Final Four appearances (seven), NCAA wins (76) and NCAA winning percentage (68.5).

Here are Hotline predictions for the Pac-12’s first-round games.

Friday

No. 7 Arizona vs. No. 10 West Virginia: Can Arizona shake its rough ending (losses to Oregon, Oregon State and, in the Pac-12 tournament, UCLA) and play with the effort and efficiency that coach Adia Barnes expects? We think so, given that the Wildcats had two weeks off to get it right and Esmery Martinez has extra motivation in facing her former team. Martinez in top form, along with all-conference selections Cate Reese and Shaina Pellington, should be enough leadership to ensure a win in College Park, Maryland. Pick: Arizona

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No. 1 Stanford vs. No. 16 Southern/Sacred Heart: The winner in a First Four game Wednesday between Southern and Sacred Heart earns a second appearance at Maples Pavilion that will be much less enjoyable. Stanford lost two of its last three games, including in a Pac-12 tournament semifinal to UCLA, and will be in no mood to coast on the 13th No. 1 seed in school history. The Cardinal is in pursuit of a third consecutive Final Four and second national title during that stretch and features two of the tournament’s elite players in Cameron Brink and Haley Jones. Pick: Stanford

No. 2 Utah vs. No. 15 Gardner-Webb: The Pac-12’s regular-season co-champions also should be refreshed following their loss on March 2 in the conference tournament quarterfinals to Washington State. That particularly applies to Pac-12 Player of the Year Alissa Pili, since she recently was playing through an ankle injury, and to Issy Palmer (leg), who was out during the Pac-12 tournament. Utah, hosting a sub-regional for the first time since 2001, is No. 4 nationally in scoring (83.5 points per game). Gardner-Webb, which is on a 21-game winning streak, averages 77 per game. The scoreboard will be whirling. Pick: Utah

No. 8 USC vs. No. 9 South Dakota State: If USC needs a reminder of what it’s up against in Blacksburg, Virginia, the Trojans need only be reminded that South Dakota State went 2-0 against UCLA last season, including a WNIT semifinal win on the way to winning that title. The Bruins and Washington State beat SDSU early this season, but the Jackrabbits now are on a 21-game winning streak. USC lost in the first round of the Pac-12 tournament (to Oregon State) and will have its hands full defending a team that averages 79.4 points (No. 12 nationally). Pick: South Dakota State

Saturday

No. 5 Washington State vs. No. 12 Florida Gulf Coast: Washington State lost in the first round of the NCAAs in 2021 (to South Florida) and 2022 (to Kansas State). Now, with veterans playing at their peak, the Cougars are due to advance to at least the second round, which would be another first for WSU in a season full of them. Florida Gulf Coast is making its ninth NCAA appearance since 2012 and upset No. 5 seed Virginia Tech in the 2022 first round. This game is being played in Philadelphia. Pick: Washington State

No. 6 Colorado vs. No. 11 Middle Tennessee: Middle Tennessee, like South Dakota State, is another very dangerous mid-major with similar metrics to Colorado. The Lady Raiders are making their 20th NCAA appearance. The Buffaloes, who lost in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals, have plenty of good wins (Utah, for example) and lost in double overtime to Stanford. They fell to Creighton in the NCAA first round last year and need Quay Miller to break out of a recent scoring slump (10 points in the last three games) in order to advance in Durham, North Carolina. Pick: Colorado

No. 4 UCLA vs. No. 13 Sacramento State: Sacramento State has some notable individual statistics including from Kahlaijah Dean (21.1 ppg) and Isnelle Natabou (13 double-doubles). But the Hornets are making their NCAA Tournament debut and winning in Pauley Pavilion is a major ask. The Bruins fell just short against Washington State in the Pac-12 tournament final (65-61) after knocking off Stanford (69-65) in the semifinals. Pick: UCLA

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