The last time a Pac-12 team claimed the national championship, Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd was playing for Whitman College in Walla Walla and UCLA coach Mick Cronin was handling video work for Cincinnati’s coaching staff.
It has been a quarter century — 26 years, to be exact — since the Wildcats made their stunning run through the 1997 NCAA Tournament as a No. 4 seed.
In the intervening decades, the conference has placed seven teams in the Final Four and two in the title game but has zero trophies.
Will either of the Pac-12’s heavyweights end the drought? The Wildcats and Bruins are No. 2 seeds; both open the NCAAs in Sacramento; and both carry 12-to-1 odds to win the championship.
Also, both have flaws — just not the same flaws.
Our questions about the Wildcats: Are they tough enough up and down the lineup? Are the guards good enough on both ends of the court? Will star forward Azuolas Tubelis respond when the pressure is most intense?
Not in the first round but perhaps in the second and assuredly in the Sweet 16, the Wildcats will face an opponent that turns the second half into a rock fight and makes every dribble, pass and shot difficult.
That does whatever it takes to secure possession of each loose ball.
That forces Tubelis out of his comfort zone.
That uses its quickness to turn Arizona’s size into a liability.
That makes Arizona’s survival the responsibility of a role player on the perimeter.
The Wildcats should escape the first weekend, but they won’t reach the big stage. They aren’t good enough to take down South region favorite Alabama.
Arizona forward Azuolas Tubelis, left, shoots while defended by UCLA forward Adem Bona during the first half of their game Saturday, March 4, 2023, in Los Angeles.
UCLA’s issue isn’t toughness. Nope. The Bruins are well suited for grinding affairs in which each possession is a steel-cage match unto itself.
And we’re assuming big man Adem Bona, an essential piece to the interior defense, is reasonably healthy after the shoulder injury he suffered in the Pac-12 Tournament.
For the Bruins, advancement through the West is all about offense: Will they avoid short-circuiting for long stretches of the second half?
Our hunch: Regional salvation depends on freshman Amari Bailey, one of the few Bruins with the athleticism to create his own shot in the final seconds of a difficult possession.
Mostly, our shiny outlook for UCLA is a contrarian move. Jaylen Clark’s injury (Achilles’) has justifiably soured projections for the Bruins, who won’t have the services of their No. 3 scorer and the best perimeter defender in the country.
On numerous levels, it doesn’t make sense to pick the Bruins to win the West. But in March, logic is often an early out.
To the picks …
SOUTH
First round: Alabama over SE Missouri State, West Virginia over Maryland, San Diego State over Charleston, Furman over Virginia, Creighton over NC State, Baylor over UCSB, Utah State over Missouri and Arizona over Princeton
Second round: Alabama over West Virginia, Furman over San Diego State, Creighton over Baylor and Arizona over Utah State
Sweet 16: Alabama over Furman and Arizona over Creighton
Elite Eight: Alabama over Arizona
Comment: The Crimson Tide have the best player in the region (forward Brandon Miller) and the easiest path to the Final Four of the No. 1 seeds, partly because of the tenuous No. 4 (Virginia). Arizona could face a rematch against Creighton in the Sweet 16. (The Wildcats beat the Bluejays by two points in the Maui Invitational title game.)
Potential sleeper: Furman
Of note: Alabama coach Nate Oats eliminated Arizona in the first round of the 2018 tournament during his tenure at Buffalo.
EAST
First round: Purdue over Texas Southern, Memphis over Florida Atlantic, Duke over Oral Roberts, Louisiana over Tennessee, Providence over Kentucky, Kansas State over Montana State, Michigan State over USC and Marquette over Vermont
Second round: Memphis over Purdue, Duke over Louisiana, Kansas State over Providence and Marquette over Michigan State
Sweet 16: Duke over Memphis and Marquette over Kansas State
Elite Eight: Duke over Marquette
Comment: Purdue’s 7-4 center Zach Edey is a dominant force, yet the Boilermakers are vulnerable against teams with athletic perimeter units. (Hello, Memphis!) Duke won the ACC Tournament and is loaded with young talent under first-year coach John Scheyer. USC must be ready to rumble against Michigan State and needs first-rate games from guards Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson in order to advance.
Potential sleeper: Oral Roberts
Of note: Marquette has won nine in a row and captured the Big East Tournament.
MIDWEST
First round: Houston over Northern Kentucky, Auburn over Iowa, Drake over Miami, Indiana over Kent State, Pitt over Iowa State, Xavier over Kennesaw State, Penn State over Texas A&M and Texas over Colgate
Second round: Houston over Auburn, Drake over Indiana, Xavier over Pitt and Texas over Penn State
Sweet 16: Houston over Drake and Texas over Xavier
Elite Eight: Houston over Texas
Comment: Don’t be fooled by Houston’s conference affiliation (the American); the Cougars deserved a No. 1 seed, possess NBA talent and are the pre-tournament betting favorite. Texas A&M’s seed (No. 7) was the source of much controversy, with many pundits believing the Aggies should have been higher.
Potential sleeper: Drake
Of note: Former Arizona coach Sean Miller resurfaced at Xavier — he was not penalized by the NCAA for rules violations — and has the Musketeers rolling at tournament time.
WEST
First round: Kansas over Howard, Arkansas over Illinois, VCU over Saint Mary’s, UConn over Iona, TCU over Arizona State, Gonzaga over Grand Canyon, Northwestern over Boise State and UCLA over UNC Asheville
Second round: Arkansas over Kansas, UConn over VCU, TCU over Gonzaga and UCLA over Northwestern
Sweet 16: Arkansas over UConn and UCLA over TCU
Elite Eight: UCLA over Arkansas
Comment: Kansas will have Coach Bill Self back on the bench after he was released from the hospital following an undisclosed issue. The Hotline seriously considered Arkansas for the Final Four based on an elite coach (Eric Musselman) and multiple lottery-pick-level talents (Nick Smith and Anthony Black). Don’t be surprised if Gonzaga struggles to dispatch Grand Canyon, which won the WAC title.
Potential sleeper: VCU
Of note: Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino is completing his third season at Iona. The Gaels haven’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 1980.
FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: Alabama over Duke and UCLA over Houston
Championship: Alabama over UCLA
Houston, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region, is on top of the odds boards to win the national championship, followed by the top overall seed Alabama.
