Since eight teams are all within two losses of each other in the Pac-12 heading into the final weekend of the regular season, Arizona could still land anywhere between a No. 4 and a No. 10 seed in the conference tournament.
That means they aren't completely out of the hunt for a first-round Pac-12 Tournament bye, although getting the final bye would involve a long series of circumstances that would create a six-team tie for fourth at 9-9.
The key to that would be having Stanford and Oregon State involved in the tie, since UA owns two wins over each of them, and getting Oregon out of the picture, since the Ducks beat UA twice.
Here's one scenario where the Wildcats could finish with the No. 4 seed:
-- Oregon State would have to lose at Washington and WSU to finish 9-9.
-- UCLA would have to lose at Colorado and Utah to finish 9-9.
-- Colorado would need to beat UCLA and lose to USC to finish 9-9.
-- Oregon would need to lose at Washington and WSU to finish 8-10.
-- USC would need to beat Colorado and lose to Utah to finish 9-9.
-- UA would need to beat ASU to finish 9-9.
-- Stanford would need to beat Cal to finish 9-9.
The first way to break multiple-team ties is to compare their records within the tied group of teams.
By that measure:
-- UA would be 5-3, having beaten OSU twice, Stanford twice, splitting with CU and losing to UCLA and USC.
-- OSU, Colorado and Stanford would be 4-4.
-- UCLA and USC would be 4-5.
MORE: Hello, a good bye? Cats can still technically earn free pass on Pac-12 Tournament's first day
UA could get the No. 10 seed by losing to ASU and having Stanford beat Cal β if none of the 8-8 teams get swept this weekend β and there are of course a number of other scenarios in between.
The best scenarios for Arizona probably involve getting a No. 4 (first-round bye), No. 5 (Cal first game), No. 6 (WSU first game) or any seed that results in a first game with Stanford.
Since ASU has clinched the No. 2 seed, if UA gets a No. 7 or No. 10 seed and wins the 7-10 game on March 12, the Wildcats would face the Sun Devils on Thursday March 13.
Conversely, if UA lands in the 8/9 bracket, a first-round win would put it against Washington, on the other side of ASU's bracket.
Washington predictably fell out of the AP Top 25 poll after spending just a week there while losing to Cal, though the Huskies still received the 30th most votes.
ASU appears firmly on the bubble heading into the regular-season finale at McKale on Saturday.Β
The Sun Devils have a NET rating of 68, are 53 in Sagarin and 63 in Kenpom.
UA is 85 in NET, 60 in Sagarin and 84 in Kenpom.
A bunch of Pac-12 teams are on the NIT bubble. According to a Dratings.com projection, only Oregon and OSU would be in that field as of now.
