Scouting report: No. 3 Arizona Wildcats vs. ASU Sun Devils

Probable starters

ARIZONA

G Kerr Kriisa (6-3 sophomore)

G Dalen Terry (6-6 sophomore)

F Bennedict Mathurin (6-6 sophomore)

F Azuolas Tubelis (6-11 sophomore)

C Christian Koloko (7-0 junior)

ASU

G Marreon Jackson (6-1 senior)

G DJ Horne (6-1 sophomore)

F Jay Heath (6-3 sophomore)

F Jalen Graham (6-9 junior)

C Enoch Boakye (6-10 freshman)

How they match up

The series: Arizona leads the Sun Devils 155-85 all time and is 9-3 against ASU since coach Bobby Hurley took over the Sun Devils in 2015-16. The Wildcats have won two straight against ASU at McKale Center after losing 72-64 on March 9, 2019.

Last season, the Wildcats won both games, winning 84-82 in Tempe on Jan. 21, 2201, when Azuolas Tubelis scooped up and put back a missed shot from James Akinjo just before the buzzer (Akinjo said it was a pass, despite scorekeepers saying otherwise). Four days later, the Wildcats beat the Sun Devils 80-67 at McKale Center, when Tubelis had 16 points and 12 rebounds — and UA made 32 of 43 free throws.

ASU overview: After putting together three straight 20-win seasons through 2019-20, the Sun Devils have struggled so far in the COVID-19 era. They went 11-14 in 2020-21, then lost Josh Christopher to the NBA, Alonzo Verge to Nebraska and Remy Martin to Kansas after the season. So far this year, ASU lost six of its first eight games, then beat Oregon as part of a three-game winning streak, and later took a COVID pause that resulted in its Jan. 8 game with Arizona being postponed.

Things unraveled in a different way on Monday, when ASU lost 78-56 at No. 15 USC while having only seven scholarship players available and Hurley out because of a suspension. Both Hurley and guard Jay Heath were suspended for one game for their actions during their foul-plagued loss at Stanford on Jan. 22; Hurley for a verbal confrontation with an official and Heath after being accused of making contact with an official.

The biggest difference with ASU this season is that the Sun Devils have more size inside, with 240-pound Canadian freshman Enoch Boakye and 6-9 juco transfer Alonzo Gaffney, who has become the Pac-12’s second-leading shot-blocker (1.69) behind Arizona’s Christian Koloko. The Sun Devils also have 6-8 super senior Kimani Lawrence and 6-9 sophomore Jalen Graham up front. Lawrence is ASU’s second-leading scorer (10.6) and its leading rebounder (7.1), though he did not play Monday at USC with a non-COVID illness.

On the perimeter, ASU replaced Martin and Verge with Toledo transfer Marreon Jackson and Illinois State transfer DJ Horne. Jackson leads the Sun Devils in assists (3.53) and has posted a 2-1 assist-turnover ratio but is shooting just 22.2% from 3-point range while taking more than five per game. Horne is shooting 39.8% from beyond the arc, where he takes 59.4% of his shots.

Overall the Sun Devils aren’t a good shooting team (27.7% from 3 and 46.3% from two) or a good rebounding team (the worst in the Pac-12 in offensive rebounding percentage and the fourth-worst in defensive rebounding percentage). But their defense had held opponents to just 45.3% shooting from two-point range to keep them in some games.

He said it: “They lost five of their last six but they had injuries, they had COVID, they could have easily won at Stanford and at USC they didn’t have their coach or two of their best players. So they're definitely a better team than then people think and they have results speaking for it.

“They’re not a bad defensive team. They have length and athleticism in their bigs. Some of them are young they’re still a very good team. Graham has been playing a lot better in the last few weeks. I think he’s really finding himself.

"(On the perimeter) Jackson and Heath are capable of putting pressure on you. Horne is a very good shooter and Heath is a good guard overall. They’re physical, they're athletic and they can create their own shots.

"(Defensively) they're mostly man but they have played some 2-3 (zone). They try to be aggressive on the ball. They have guards with good hands so that’s part of their strength defensively. — UA assistant coach Riccardo “Ricky” Fois, who scouted the Sun Devils.

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Key players

ASU — DJ Horne

A prolific 3-point shooter who hit 41.4% from beyond the arc over two seasons at Illinois State, Horne is proving just as effective at ASU. In the Pac-12 this season, he’s first in 3-pointers made per game (2.65) and 10th in 3-point percentage (39.8).

ARIZONA — Azuolas Tubelis

If technology can’t help Tubelis get back to 100% on his sprained ankle Saturday, maybe some good memories will. The Lithuanian power forward had two of his better games against ASU last season, with a game-winner at Tempe and a double-double at McKale.

Sidelines

Kriisa’s green light

There’s little doubt point guard Kerr Kriisa has been an emotional force for the Wildcats, in good and bad times. Tuesday was one of those rough times: Kriisa was 0 for 12 from the field on Tuesday at UCLA, throwing up nine shots from 3-point range in UA's 75-59 loss.

Kriisa's contributions tend to go beyond the box score. In UA's big road games at Illinois, Tennessee and UCLA, Kriisa has been a combined 5 for 27 from 3 while committing 14 turnovers. But UA coach Tommy Lloyd said he wasn’t telling Kriisa to stop shooting at any point, even in the second half at UCLA.

“I don't think you can do that,” Lloyd said. “If you look at how we've played this year, at Illinois, who played really well in the second half to kind of bring us back? At Tennessee, who kind of sparked our run? Kerr has that ability and I'm going to trust that ability. I've seen him do it and I believe in him and with him I always feel like the next one's going in.

Lloyd also said Kriisa is a “bounce-back type of guy” who simply had a tough game, in which UCLA’s defense may have played a role.

“There's a law of averages in this whole deal, right,” Lloyd said. “Sometimes you get in these tough games and you don't shoot it well and it might be the quality of shots that you’re getting. Then you’re like `Yeah, we had these open shots and you just didn't make any of them.' Well, you're not going to make every open shot. You’re gonna miss open threes too, and it just gets a little bit exasperated sometimes. So it's a blip on the radar in my mind.”

Glue, quantified

Evidence that Kriisa and Dalen Terry are helping the Wildcats more than their individual stats might indicate arrived Friday courtesy the website EvanMiya.com.

The analytics-based website ranks Terry the No. 18 “glue guy” in the country and Kriisa No. 64.

Evan Miyakawa, a doctorate candidate in statistics at Baylor who runs the analytics-based site, said the "glue" rankings use a formula that takes the difference between players’ individual stats and their actual “Bayesian performance rating” that accounts for overall team success while they are on the floor.

Terry said he saw the ranking earlier Friday but didn’t make a big deal of it.

“But it was actually something cool,” Terry said. “ I mean, it is what it is. I just play the game you know, and I fall where I fall.”

ASU ‘fan’ club

Since both Hurley and Heath were suspended for the Sun Devils’ game at USC on Monday for their actions with a referee two days earlier at Stanford, Hurley invited Heath to join him in watching the game from his Los Angeles hotel.

ASU forward Kimani Lawrence, who was coming off a non-COVID illness, joined, along with Hurley’s family.

They did not bring popcorn.

“The was definitely a lot of anxiety,” Lawrence told the Star. “Every shot was a big shot. We were hoping every shot goes in, we were yelling at the TV as if they could hear us. It was definitely a weird experience.”

However, Lawrence said it was a good chance to hang out with Hurley and get a different perspective at learning the game.

“It was a chance to bond with coach and watch with his family,” Lawrence said. “We were rooting for the guys and asking him questions about what he thought about the game, different schemes and different things that we could be doing better. I think it was a chance to grow and help us become a better team.”

Numbers game

9 — ASU’s overall strength of schedule, as measured by Kenpom.

339 — The Sun Devils' national ranking in 3-point shooting percentage (27.7)

347 — ASU’s national ranking in ability to get to the free-throw line, as measured by free throw ranking (a 21.7% ratio of free throws attempted to field goals attempted, the 14th worst in the country).