In a season when college basketball is living almost hour-by-hour, the Arizona Wildcats may be evolving even faster.
Having played 13 of 27 allowable games so far — with no telling if they’ll be able to hit the maximum, given that eight of their games have already been moved or canceled for COVID-19 reasons — the Wildcats are probably about at their midpoint now.
At 10-3 overall and 4-3 in the Pac-12 since opening this odd pandemic-protocol-laden season on Nov. 27, the Wildcats have already moved from a veteran-oriented team that started two juniors, two sophomores and a freshman to one powered by two highly skilled freshmen who did not even start at the beginning of the season — big man Azuolas Tubelis and wing Bennedict Mathurin.
Junior point guard James Akinjo holds it all together while leading the Wildcats in shots taken (155), scoring (13.5 points per game) and assists (74), while additional veterans offer role support in other areas. Big men Jordan Brown (offensively) and Christian Koloko (defensively) bring particular skills inside when they avoid foul trouble.
Arizona lost leading shooter Jemarl Baker last week, but is getting rapidly improved production from Mathurin and Tubelis as their comfort level rises. And combo guard Kerr Kriisa could help upon becoming eligible in three weeks.
While the Wildcats still foul too much and aren’t quite a vintage defensive Sean Miller team — the coach complained notably after USC and UCLA drove inside and drew fouls almost at will a week ago — they have also developed into one of the nation’s most efficient offensive teams. Their rebounding and ballhandling continue to keep them in games.
“Our ability to take care of the ball is big,” Miller said after UA had just 10 turnovers in its 98-64 win at Oregon State on Thursday. “We’re gonna miss Jemarl a lot. One of his gifts as a player is he’s very bright. He makes good decisions and he takes care of the ball at very, very high level. We just have to make sure that we continue to take care of the ball without him.”
Chances are, they will. Grad transfer Terrell Brown just happens to have the best assist-to-turnover ratio in all of Division I (7.3-1) while Akinjo is approaching 3-1 with 74 assists and 29 turnovers, and freshman wing Dalen Terry is at 2-1.
The Wildcats’ ballhandling is one factor behind their highly rated offensive efficiency as calculated by Kenpom.com, which features advanced analytics that generally provide more context than a season stat sheet.
These 13 Kenpom.com numbers break down how the Wildcats look at the midpoint of their season:
Offensive efficiency
113.6
Arizona’s points per 100 possessions, making the Wildcats the 13th most offensively efficient team in college basketball. Among other things, the stat is a reflection of Arizona’s careful 3-point shooting, offensive rebounding and low turnovers.
So far, UA has an even higher ranking that the Deandre Ayton-led Wildcats had in 2017-18 when they were 15th. The Wildcats are dramatically better than the 153rd-ranked team of 2018-19 and better than the Nico Mannion-to-Josh Green-or-Zeke Nnaji team of last season (35).
In fact, they’re playing so efficiently on offense that it even took the sting off Arizona’s defensive lapses in home losses to USC and UCLA — at least somewhat.
“I was really pleased in many ways with how we played offense against UCLA and USC,” Miller said. “There’s always things you want to do better but for the most part, you look at the points we scored, the turnovers we had, the number of times we got to the free throw line: We did a lot of good things.
“There are a lot of games that we’ve won over the last 11 1/2 seasons with those offensive numbers.”
Arizona forward Jordan Brown (21) stacks up UCLA guard Jake Kyman (13), left, and forward Cody Riley (2) on his drive to the basket in the first half of their Pac 12 basketball game at McKale Center, Tucson, Ariz., January 9, 2021.
Offensive rebounding
37.1
Percent of Arizona’s missed shots that it rebounds, the 11th highest offensive rebounding percentage in Division I. The Wildcats lead the Pac-12 in rebounding margin (9.92) but the rebounding percentage offers even more context.
12.5
Tubelis’ offensive rebounding percentage, highest on the team and No. 91 overall. Tubelis is also among Kenpom.com leaders in defensive rebounding percentage (17.7%, 146th), block percentage (3.1%, 373rd) and fouls drawn per 40 minutes (6.0, 96th).
Two other UA players rank nationally in Kenpom.com’s offensive rebounding percentage: Jordan Brown (10.8) and Bennedict Mathurin (8.5).
Fouling
36.2
Ratio of opponents’ free throw attempts to field-goal attempts. This pace-independent measure of how often opponents are picking up fouls against the Wildcats is not surprisingly on the high side – UA ranks 246th overall in the measure.
In regular terms, the Wildcats are committing 20.1 fouls a game and have had seven players foul out while Jordan Brown has had four or more in five games.
6.0 Fouls drawn per 40 minutes by both Brown and Tubelis, ranking 96th nationally. Maybe that helps offset things on the other end a bit.
Ballhandling
16.4
Percent of the time Arizona possessions end in a turnover, ranking 48th overall. Miller typically strives for the Wildcats to keep turnovers in the single digits or not much over that per game, and they’re also good in this pace-independent measure.
7.1
Terrell Brown’s turnover percentage. Instead of assist-turnover ratio, Kenpom.com uses “turnover rate,” a percentage of times a player turns the ball over per possession when he’s on the floor — and Brown ranks 43rd nationally in that metric.
The Wildcats also have the 20th lowest mark in possessions that end in blocked shots (5.4) and the 50th lowest in possessions that end with a steal by the other team (7.4)
Shot-blocking
12.2
Percent of opponent shots that Arizona blocks, the 45th lowest rate nationally. (The Wildcats are even better at avoiding getting their own shots blocked, just 5.4% of the time, or the 20th best nationally).
8.7
Opponent shots that center Christian Koloko personally blocks when he’s on the floor. Koloko is averaging only 16 minutes a game, so his raw blocks average of 1.3 per game doesn’t tell the story of how effective he can be protecting the rim. But Koloko jumped back in the starting lineup on Thursday, with Miller saying how important his defensive presence is.
“Christian is very much in a developmental phase of being a scorer …(and) he’s one of our team’s leading offensive rebounders,” Miller said. “But his ability to guard low post players, protect the basket, play ball screen defense, being really just one of our overall smartest defensive players – if Christian could get us some more minutes, block shots, play without fouling, he makes our overall defense better.”
Assists
57.6
Percent of Arizona’s field goals arriving after an assist, an above average national ranking of 68.
29.9
Of Arizona’s field goals that arrive as a result of an assist from James Akinjo when he’s on the floor, an assist rate ranking No. 98 nationally. Terrell Brown (188) and Terry (493) also rank nationally in assist rate.
3-pointers
31.6
Ratio of 3-pointers taken to overall field goals taken. This is the 295th lowest rate in Division I and, combined with the Wildcats’ 36.3% 3-point shooting percentage (76th nationally), indicates they are careful if not prolific shooters.
However, Baker’s absence could change that calculus. He alone has taken 28% of UA’s 3-pointers, hitting them at a 46.3% rate before missing all 15 3s he took while playing injured against Washington State, USC and UCLA.
48.8
Mathurin’s 3-point shooting percentage. Nobody might better exemplify Arizona’s careful shooting from long range than Mathurin. His percentage would rank in the Top 20 nationally if he had made the minimum of 2.5 3s a game (he’s made 1.5) but Kenpom.com ranks him at No. 61 nationally.
That’s on top of Mathurin’s already obvious athleticism, the kind that draws fouls, gets to the basket and makes leap-from-behind dunks as he did at Oregon State.
“Those are the plays that we need to make, and quite frankly, those are some of the plays we needed to make last week” against USC and UCLA, Miller said. “You have to start somewhere and hopefully this game gives not only Benn more confidence in that area but our team as well.”
