Wildcats have displayed split personality at times; is that a trend or a coincidence?

Arizona has avenged two of its four losses already this season, and history suggests a third one happens Thursday.

Not just because the eighth-ranked Wildcats will be hosting Utah this time before a McKale Center crowd that Utes coach Craig Smith says can “impact the game in a big-time way.” And not just because the Wildcats figure to be a bit more focused this time, with their 81-66 loss at Utah on Dec. 1 coming after a head-swelling Maui Invitational championship run.

The Wildcats might beat the Utes this time simply because the game is on Thursday.

Although Arizona’s Dec. 1 loss actually came on a Thursday, it happened well before the Pac-12’s usual Thursday-Saturday grind, when the Wildcats had a full week without a game to soak up the Maui vibes. They went snorkeling, made the long flight home, took some time off and then journeyed unsuccessfully to the cold and high altitude of Salt Lake City.

“We got punched,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said. “We got punched by a good team that was playing at home and had a spirited effort. That’s what I remember.”

Since then, all the Wildcats’ losses have arrived on Saturday, just two days after a Thursday-night victory.

“Maybe that’s the theme,” Lloyd said. “I don’t know. It’s something we gotta figure out.”

Maybe that has something to do with Lloyd’s shrunken seven-man rotation tiring out a little on Saturdays. Or maybe it’s just because the Wildcats are sometimes playing better teams then.

Maybe it’s not a trend at all. But here’s a look at what the Wildcats are doing markedly better on Thursdays than Saturdays since New Year’s … and why that might or might not matter:

1. They defend better

The Wildcats have held Thursday-night opponents to just 39% shooting overall and 31.3% from 3-point range. But on Saturdays, those figures balloon to 43.8% and 35.7%.

Because 3-point percentage defense is subject to several variables, the decline in the Wildcats’ 2-point defense on Saturdays might be more directly attributed to fatigue or a lack of sharpness.

However, it is worth noting that Oregon ranks No. 1 in Pac-12 2-point percentage during conference games — and the Ducks shot 71.9% from 2 in their 87-68 win over Arizona on Jan. 14 in Eugene.

Stanford, meanwhile, is tied with UCLA and Oregon State in Pac-12 games in 3-point shooting (35.3) and hit 10 of 18 3s in its 88-79 win over Arizona last Saturday.

The Ducks and Cardinal had the potential to stretch the Wildcats’ defense any day of the week.

2. They shoot better

Does this sound too obvious so far? Then let’s pause here for Lloyd’s take on all this, and the danger of overanalysis.

“Always, when you lose … you’re probably not going to have rebounded as well, you’re probably not going to have shot as well,” Lloyd said. “Every team can look at those things in their wins and losses. I don’t think any team says `Man, when we win, we shoot it poorly and the other team shoots it great.’ “

Still the drops in Arizona’s shooting are pretty significant, suggesting again that the Wildcats might be just a little more fatigued or a little less motivated on Saturdays.

Arizona’s overall shooting drops from 47.6% on Thursdays to 42.3% on Saturdays, while its 3-point shooting sinks from 40.4% to 34.4%.

3. Perimeter players more efficient

Although UA guard Kerr Kriisa is actually scoring more in Saturday games (9.8) than on Thursdays (9.3), his Thursday 3-point rate of 35.6% drops to 30.2% on Saturdays.

Moreover, Kriisa averages 6.7 assists and a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio on Thursdays but just 3.7 assists and a 1.6 ratio on Saturdays.

Back to homepage

Subscriber Login

Keep reading with a digital access subscription.

Subscribe now

Then again, Kriisa, the assist leader in Pac-12 games (5.6), was bound to have a tougher time on Saturdays: He’s had to face two of the conference’s other top-five assist leaders only during the second game of a weekend — UCLA’s Tyger Campbell (5.4) and Stanford’s Harrison Ingram (4.0).

In Arizona’s 58-52 win over UCLA on Jan. 21, Campbell had seven assists and only two turnovers while Kriisa had two assists and four turnovers. Last Saturday, in Stanford’s 88-79 win over Arizona, Ingram had seven assists and three turnovers while Kriisa had one assist and two turnovers.

Meanwhile, in six Thursday games since New Year’s, UA junior Pelle Larsson is averaging 11.2 points and shooting 54.2%.

But Larsson, who is also known for the considerable energy he spends defensively guarding nearly every position on the floor, hasn’t been the same shooter on Saturdays. On those days, he averages 7.5 points and shoots just 10% from 3.

The 3-point shooting of two other wings dips from Thursday to Saturday but not as drastically: Senior Cedric Henderson drops from 47.4% to 29.4%, and freshman Kylan Boswell goes from 45.5% to 33.3%.

Maybe there’s something to all that, maybe not. But individual shooting is another one Lloyd isn’t wild about digging into.

“You know what? I’m expecting if Pelle’s open, the ball has a good chance to go in, and I want him shooting it that way,” Lloyd said. “I don’t want him thinking `Well, it’s a Saturday, I should probably turn this shot down. But Thursday, I’m gonna shoot it.’

“Now you’re overanalyzing things, and I don’t think that helps the players.”

4. Maybe Lloyd’s better on Thursdays, too

Asked jokingly if he’s a better coach on Thursdays, Lloyd smiled and said he didn’t know.

But for what it’s worth, also consider this: In the 13 times he’s coached the Wildcats during true two-game weekend pairings — which disregards Arizona’s loss at UCLA last season in a Tuesday COVID-makeup game — Lloyd is 13-0 on Thursdays.

He’s 9-4 on Saturdays.

That, again, might mean nothing. But Lloyd did say he felt responsible for the Wildcats’ loss at Stanford in part because of “overscouting” the Cardinal, prompting UA players to make too many decisions on the court because of a complicated game plan.

“I’m wearing this loss, too,” Lloyd said. “The players obviously have to hold up their end of the bargain, and we’ve all talked about that, but I didn’t feel like I was at my best on Saturday. That’s something that hits home to me.

“I always want to put our team in the best position possible to win. Saturday probably wasn’t my best effort, either.”

5. They rebound better

This might be as significant a difference as any between Arizona’s Thursday and Saturday games: Arizona has a rebound margin of plus-7.0 on Thursdays but only 1.4 on Saturdays.

You can guess where that trend starts: Forward Azuolas Tubelis averages 12.0 on Thursday but just 8.0 on Saturdays, while center Oumar Ballo drops from 9.5 to 7.2.

But … the two opponents Arizona has only played on Saturday are two of the Pac-12’s best rebounding teams: UCLA is first in offensive rebounding percentage (37.3) and second in defensive rebounding percentage (72.7), while Stanford is second in offensive rebounding percentage (33.3) and third on the defensive side (71.2).

The Bruins and Cardinal probably would have made things pretty tough on the glass no matter when the game was played.

“I know we’ve played really well on other Saturdays, so I’m not going to overthink it,” Lloyd said of all the Thursday-Saturday splits. “I think the theme is, when we play well and spirited and tough, we’re hard to beat. When we’re not, we’re beatable.”