Is Arizona the most disrespected, downtrodden Power Five program in America?
That’s probably not the question you want to be asking entering Year 3 of the Kevin Sumlin regime. But the perception outside the walls of the Lowell-Stevens Football Facility isn’t pretty.
After the Pac-12 Conference released the first version of its all-conference schedule on July 31, The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel — a respected, longtime chronicler of college football — predicted the Wildcats to go 0-10. Mandel even had Arizona losing at home to Colorado, which had to change coaches in mid-February, didn’t practice a single time in spring, lost its quarterback and top receiver and has lost three in a row against the Cats. Mandel’s conclusion: “The best-case scenario for Kevin Sumlin’s third season is that it gets canceled altogether.”
After version 3.0 of the schedule came out in early October, The San Jose Mercury News’ Jon Wilner — the premier reporter on all things Pac-12 — also picked Arizona to go winless. Wilner’s program trajectory for the UA? “Downward with a chance of collapse.”
Coaches and players often say they’re unaware of such predictions. Sumlin scoffed at the annual Pac-12 media poll, which had his team finishing last in the South Division.
“I do not pay attention to it,” Sumlin said, “because the people who create that ranking will not play or coach.”
But at least one of his players — his most prominent and important one — certainly seemed to know what others were thinking. He also seemed rankled by it.
“Saying we’re not gonna have any wins is almost a joke to me,” sophomore quarterback Grant Gunnell said. “I feel like we’re going to shock some people.”
Does Arizona have the means to do it? The Wildcats went 9-15 in Sumlin’s first two seasons. They lost their last seven games last season. They also lost three projected starters to transfer from a defense that couldn’t afford to lose anyone.
247Sports.com released its “Team Talent Composite” in mid-October. The website measures a team’s overall talent by totaling the recruiting rankings among players on the current roster. Arizona ranked last in the Pac-12 and 69th overall. Only two Power Five programs were lower: Kansas State (70th) and Kansas (71st).
Truth be told, the Jayhawks are in a worse place than the Wildcats. Kansas hasn’t won more than three games in a season since 2009. Arizona was one play away from earning a bowl berth in Sumlin’s first season. It would have been the Wildcats’ sixth in seven years.
But respect is earned, not given, and one of the wisest Wildcats seems to grasp that.
“I don’t think we get the respect that we deserve,” senior tight end Bryce Wolma said. “But, on the other hand, we’ve got to go out and prove it. So I think this is a big year for us.
“It seems like the last three years everyone’s going into the season doubting, picking us … last in the Pac-12. Guys have taken that personally … to get rid of that (stigma) around our program. We’re definitely looking to change that up this year, and it’s gonna take everybody. But I know that we’ve got the guys to do it.”
Unhappy pairing
Sumlin arrived in January 2018 with great expectations. Sure, things had soured for him at Texas A&M. After 11-2 and 9-4 seasons, the Aggies plateaued at 8-5. They were 7-5 when Sumlin was dismissed in late 2017.
But Sumlin had won 66.2% of his games at A&M and 67.3% at Houston, and how could Arizona possibly do better than that? He inherited a team that finished 7-6 under Rich Rodriguez and had a dynamic, talented quarterback in Khalil Tate. It appeared to be the perfect marriage.
The honeymoon didn’t last long. Arizona lost the ’18 opener to BYU. Tate, who had rushed for more than 1,400 yards the previous season, barely ran at all. Questions immediately surfaced about Tate’s fit in coordinator Noel Mazzone’s offense.
Tate got hurt the following week in a blowout loss at Houston, spraining his ankle, and didn’t look quite right until late in the season. A November rally put the Wildcats in position to earn a bowl berth, and Arizona was 15 minutes away from pulling it off. But the UA squandered a 19-point fourth-quarter lead against Arizona State. There would be no postseason in Year 1 under Sumlin.
Kevin Sumlin talks with UA president Robert C. Robbins before an Oct. 21 practice. Robbins followed the coach’s career when both were in Texas.
“Now you’ve put yourself on alert,” said former Colorado, Washington and UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, now a college football analyst for CBS Sports. “You’ve put a little pressure on 2019. You get out of the box 4-1, then all of a sudden you don’t win a game. Now it looks like, from the outside, that there’s something from a structural standpoint that’s broken.”
Arizona ended the ’19 season on a seven-game losing streak. After a promising start, Tate struggled and lost the full-time starting job. His eligibility expired, and the one-time Heisman Trophy candidate is currently out of football.
It’s unfair to pin all the blame for the Wildcats’ struggles the past two seasons on the quarterback and his coaches. But the way the situation unfolded only did further damage to Sumlin’s reputation as a QB developer after five-star recruits Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray transferred out of Texas A&M.
Some UA fans faulted Mazzone, although, as with all aspects of Tate’s career here, it’s not that simple. No matter: Arizona is now being led by Gunnell — Sumlin and Mazzone’s handpicked quarterback. Gunnell initially committed to them at A&M. When the coaches came to Tucson, Gunnell followed.
While not specifically referring to Tate or anything that happened the previous two seasons, Mazzone agreed with the notion that the Wildcats seem to be rowing in the same direction now. That wasn’t always the case in 2018 and ’19 on either side of the ball.
“Like in anything — any team, any business — everybody has to have the same vision and be on the same mission,” Mazzone said. “In any kind of organization, … you’ve got to have a captain of the ship, or nobody knows which way to oar. And I really have seen that in guys like Grant, guys like (center) Josh McCauley, guys like (receiver) Boobie Curry.
“I see a bunch of guys out there that see us as a team and not a bunch of individuals.”
Finances and fairness
After last year’s Territorial Cup, a 24-14 defeat in Tempe, UA athletic director Dave Heeke held an impromptu media scrum. The news: Sumlin would be back for Year 3.
“This is not where we wanted to be at this point,” Heeke said. “But we’re committed … to the process, moving this thing forward.”
Heeke made no mention of the financial impact of letting Sumlin go. If it had happened before mid-January 2019, he would have been owed $10 million in two payments. The buyout was hard to justify then. It’s almost impossible to fathom now, amid the coronavirus pandemic, even at a 25% or 50% reduction.
“Economics are a real factor in athletic departments today,” Neuheisel said. “The hit they’ve taken during the pandemic has been excruciating. You can ease some of that tension by calling this season a write-off. Financially, it makes sense. You can make a case that it’s the fair thing to do.
“The problem is, if you struggle again this season, what does it do to your fan base in terms of motivation to come back and participate in the program going forward? That is an economic question as well.”
If Sumlin were fired shortly after the Dec. 19 season finale, he’d be owed $7.5 million. If it happened in mid-January, he would be owed $5 million. Either way, it’s a sunk cost. And if you wait to save $2.5 million, you fall further behind in the hiring and recruiting cycles.
A strong argument can be made, as Neuheisel mentioned, that 2020 ought to be a write-off. The pandemic threw everything into upheaval. It led to the transfers of veteran linebackers Tony Fields II and Colin Schooler, plus receiver Brenden Schooler, Colin’s older brother.
If the season had started when it was supposed to, all three of those players would be wearing UA colors — and the Wildcats’ outlook would be brighter. It isn’t Sumlin’s fault that they left.
The question is whether the program’s critics, or even its supporters, will acknowledge those nuances — especially with that seven-game losing streak looming over the program.
“I give him (a pass for the transfers), because I don’t think that happens but for the pandemic and the decisions the Pac-12 made,” Neuheisel said. “But … no one’s going to give a dang about that. He’s got to find a way to do it with the kids he has, find a way to right the ship. Because at day’s end, Arizona needs to be relevant again, and it needs to be relevant again soon.”
‘Win the day’
One big upset could change everything. No one knows that better than Sumlin.
His first season at A&M was going well. The Aggies were 7-2 when they visited No. 1 Alabama. The program went supernova when Johnny Manziel led them to a 29-24 victory over the Crimson Tide.
“Here’s a guy who understands exactly what that means. He lived it,” Neuheisel said of Sumlin. “He saw his star go through the roof with that kind of outcome.”
A through line can be drawn from that game to Sumlin’s hiring at Arizona. UA president Robert C. Robbins, who grew up in SEC country, worked in Houston while Sumlin soared in College Station.
“When you go into Tuscaloosa and knock off Alabama and Nick Saban, that gets people’s attention,” Robbins told the Star in July 2018. “I had known about him, of course, from Houston. He won there. He won at A&M. And he’s going to win at the University of Arizona.”
The early portion of the revised schedule is formidable — but rife with opportunities. Arizona is a two-touchdown underdog for Saturday’s opener at Utah. USC and Washington should be heavily favored as well.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Wildcats have a plan to upend perceptions and change their narrative.
The so-called experts say 0-7. The Cats say 1-0. That’s their mantra, instilled by strength coach Brian Johnson and prescribed to daily.
“We don’t really care or worry about what they’re saying about us,” defensive lineman Mykee Irving said. “At the end of the day, it’s about us. Every day, we just want to win the day.”
It’s a prudent approach. The first two years under Sumlin were rough. The future is uncertain. Respect is hard to come by. But it’s attainable.
“Sometimes you hit some rocks when you’re trying to dig a foundation to build a program,” Mazzone said. “But … I think a lot of pieces are starting to fall in place.
“Now, obviously, like any job, you’ve got to go out and put a good product on the field and win football games. But I love where we’re at right now. I love where the mindset of this football team is and what Coach has developed here, and I’m excited to watch these guys play.”
