Arizona already has played more than half its games, but a bye after Week 7 has divided the season into two distinct parts.
The Wildcats have five regular-season games left. At 3-4, they would need to win at least three to qualify for a bowl berth. They face an uphill climb.
Arizona’s next three opponents are ranked in the top 15 in the AP poll: No. 10 USC (6-1), No. 14 Utah (5-2) and No. 12 UCLA (6-1). The games against the Utes and Bruins are on the road.
The Wildcats will have to play better than they have lately — especially on defense — to pull off an upset before closing the season at home against Washington State and Arizona State.
In this week’s “Cats Stats,” we’ll take a look at five areas where Arizona can improve over the final five games. Some of these will sound familiar.
Sacks/TFLs
The Wildcats haven’t been playing on the opponent’s side of the line of scrimmage nearly enough.
In the three games in which they’ve allowed 49 points — Cal, Oregon and Washington — the Cats did not register a sack. Those two facts are not mutually exclusive.
Arizona didn’t have a tackle for loss of any kind against Oregon, the first time the Wildcats failed to register a TFL in a game in over a decade.
To generate more negative plays, defensive linemen will have to win more on-on-one battles up front; or coordinator Johnny Nansen will have to blitz more, leaving fewer players in coverage.
USC’s Caleb Williams is the third-most pressured quarterback in the Pac-12, so it’s possible to disrupt him. His completion rate plummets from 70.7% to 45.3% when pressured, according to Pro Football Focus; it’s 10 points lower (56.1% vs. 66.1%) when he’s blitzed.
Takeaways
The good news: Arizona has forced seven turnovers through seven games, one more than its total from last season.
The bad: The Wildcats have only one takeaway in four Pac-12 games. Meanwhile, they’ve turned the ball over six times (three apiece vs. Cal and Oregon) for a minus-5 margin in conference action.
The first stat we listed — sacks/TFLs — typically impacts this one. But Arizona will face an atypical quarterback this week.
Despite being pressured 96 times, Williams has turned the ball over only once. His interception against ASU is USC’s only giveaway this season.
The Trojans have thrived on takeaways, forcing a league-high 16 turnovers. Their plus-15 turnover margin is the best in the nation.
Arizona is tied for 87th at minus-2 — a huge upgrade from last season (minus-17, worst in the country) but still not where Jedd Fisch wants that number to be.
Third-down defense
The Wildcats haven’t been terrible in this area. Opponents have converted at a 42% clip against them. Five Pac-12 teams are worse, including UCLA, Washington and Oregon.
(Interestingly, four of the seven worst teams in the nation in third-down defense are from the Pac-12. It’s really, really hard to stop the offenses in this league this year.)
But a couple of trends are worth noting.
The first is that Arizona has been noticeably worse in Pac-12 play. Non-conference opponents converted just 33.3% of their third downs. Conference opponents have converted 48.7%.
The other is that the Wildcats have faced the fewest third — 69 — of any team in the country. San Jose State, which has played only six games, is second at 77.
What does that stat signify? It means Arizona isn’t forcing opponents into third-down situations. They’re gouging the Wildcats on first and second downs. That isn’t a formula for success.
Red-zone defense
Improvement here could be a real difference-maker down the stretch – even if it means limiting opponents to field goals once they penetrate the 20-yard line.
That hasn’t happened on a regular basis — or any basis — since the opener vs. San Diego State. The Aztecs entered the red zone four times. They scored one touchdown, kicked two field goals and lost a fumble.
Since then, opponents have scored touchdowns on 22 of 27 trips into the red zone — a rate of 81.5%. Arizona’s overall mark of 74.2% ranks 123rd in the country.
The Wildcats managed only three red-zone stops of any sort in the five games after the opener. In a possibly encouraging sign, they notched two in Week 7 against Washington. Both were fourth-down stops.
Even if the Huskies had kicked field goals in those situations, those would have counted as “wins” for the UA defense. The Wildcats will need more of those to win more games.
Rushing efficiency
We’ll end with a stat pertaining to offense.
As Arizona’s personnel has changed and as this season has evolved, it has become clear that the Wildcats are a pass-first team. That isn’t going to change. If you’re still holding out hope that Arizona will move toward a slower-paced, grind-it-out offense to protect its defense, you’re wasting your energy.
That doesn’t mean the Wildcats can’t become more efficient when they do run the ball.
Arizona is averaging 4.3 yards per carry, a figure that ranks sixth in the Pac-12. Four of the league’s five most productive rushing teams average 5.0 yards or more — and Oregon State is right on the cusp at 4.9.
If you take out sacks, the Wildcats slide a little further down. Their sack-adjusted rushing average of 5.2 yards per attempt ranks ninth in the conference. USC is first at 6.4 yards.
As running backs Michael Wiley, DJ Williams and Jonah Coleman all rank in the top 12 in the league in yards after contact per attempt (see chart), this is mainly an offensive-line issue. Per PFF, Arizona’s run-blocking grade of 51.5 is tied for 113th in the nation. Its rushing grade of 87.9 ranks 18th.
The Wildcats probably won’t run the ball more over the final five weeks. But they can get more out of those plays when they do.
Arizona defensive end Hunter Echols reflected on his career at USC, and how much he's matured since transferring to the UA for his final college football season.
