Even before it was announced that Cal would be without multiple players because of COVID-19 protocols, the game against the Golden Bears was one Arizona fans and media circled on their calendars.
It’s a thing that we do. We eyeball the schedule and pick out potential wins and losses. It’s a frivolous but fun exercise. And Cal sure looked like a win for the still-winless Wildcats.
UA coach Jedd Fisch — like every coach across the land — urges a different approach. Every game is its own entity. Each demands the staff and players’ utmost attention.
When asked this week whether anyone on his team is feeling a greater sense of urgency to end Arizona’s losing streak because time is running out on the 2021 season, Fisch said:
“Nope. Our guys play the same way every week, practice the same way every week. We don’t really talk about getting a win. We talked about going 1-0 this week.”
The odds of that happening certainly seem to have improved in the wake of Cal’s announcement. It was unclear as of Friday afternoon how many Bears would be unavailable. At the very least, the absence of multiple players will hurt Cal’s depth on what’s expected to be a 90-degree afternoon in Tucson.
So is this it then? Is this the end of the 20-game skid, which has lasted since October 2019?
Let’s put it up for debate.
Point: Cal could be missing several key players, so this thing is a lock.
Counterpoint: Are you familiar with the 2021 Wildcats?
Remember, Arizona lost this season to NAU. Arizona lost at home to a Mountain West school (albeit a very good one) by 24 points. Arizona lost 34-0 at Colorado, which has no other wins against FBS opponents.
It’s dangerous to assume anything. If the Bears have Chase Garbers — one of the most experienced quarterbacks and most underrated players in the Pac-12 — then they will be a legitimate threat.
As of this writing, the consensus point spread had moved from Cal minus-12 to Cal minus-9. That’s a significant shift, to be sure. But the Golden Bears are still favored by more than a touchdown, which probably says more about how Vegas feels about the Wildcats.
Point: Even if the COVID-19 issue hadn’t cropped up, Cal isn’t that good. The Golden Bears are just 3-5.
Counterpoint: They’re way better than their record suggests.
You think Arizona has caught some bad breaks this season? Cal easily could be 7-1 right now.
Four of the Golden Bears’ losses were by seven or fewer points. They were all excruciating:
Cal lost to Nevada 22-17 in Week 1. After cutting the deficit to five points in the fourth quarter, Cal advanced to the Nevada 9-yard line. A sack led to a missed field goal. The Bears never threatened again.
The following week, Cal visited TCU. Leading 19-7 at one point, the Bears faced an eight-point deficit in the fourth quarter. They scored to make it 34-32 with 4:09 left. Their 2-point conversion attempt failed. They never got the ball back.
In its Pac-12 opener, Cal visited Washington. The Bears rallied to tie the score with 2:51 remaining. They had a 55-yard field-goal attempt to win the game at the buzzer that was no good. Down 31-24 in overtime, they lost a fumble at the UW 1-yard line.
On Oct. 25 at Oregon, Cal trailed 24-17 with 4:50 remaining. The Bears drove inside the Ducks’ 10. Cal ran eight plays from the 8-yard line and in but couldn’t score.
“Those things can go the other way,” Fisch said. “Their record can flip very quickly. They’re a good football team. We know that we’ve got our work cut out for us. They’ve won two in a row. And they beat some pretty good teams.”
Cal defeated Colorado 26-3 and Oregon State 39-25. The Beavers were 5-2 and favored by two points in Berkeley.
Point: If the COVID-19 issues have infiltrated Cal’s lines, the Bears are in big trouble.
Counterpoint: Arizona has line issues of its own.
UA defensive linemen Kyon Barrs and Paris Shand will be game-time decisions, Fisch said. Defensive end Mo Diallo might be as well.
Barrs, a defensive tackle, is Arizona’s highest-graded defender, per Pro Football Focus. If Diallo and Shand are out, Arizona would be down to its fourth-string “Anchor.” JB Brown began the season as the starter at that spot. He’s no longer playing in games for the team.
Arizona also could be without starting left guard Donovan Laie, who got banged up during last week’s game at USC.
The Wildcats would like to impose their will Saturday. Can they?
“We want to be as physical as humanly possible,” Fisch said. “It’ll be a good challenge for us to go against a team that has a similar belief system in that regard.”
And might — or might not — have similar personnel issues.
Point: OK, let’s say Arizona does win against a depleted Cal squad. Is that anything to celebrate?
Counterpoint: You’re kidding, right?
The Wildcats and their fans have been suffering for over two years. Arizona has lost in every conceivable manner to opponents as respected as No. 3 Oregon to as overlooked as FCS representative NAU.
The Golden Bears’ issues aren’t the Wildcats’ problem. If Cal and the Pac-12 have determined that the Bears have enough players to field a viable squad, then the game is valid. As is the result, whatever it might be.
The Cats haven’t sung the fight song in their locker room after a game since Oct. 5, 2019. If they prevail — no matter the state of the opponent — they should sing it loudly and proudly.
