Not all 5-7 records are created equal.
The best-case scenario for the 2019 Arizona Wildcats is to finish with the same mark as the ’18 Cats — 5-7. To get there, Arizona would have to defeat favored Arizona State on Saturday, something last year’s team failed to do.
That season-ending defeat changed the perception of Kevin Sumlin’s first campaign as UA coach. Instead of beating their hated rivals and earning a bowl berth, the Wildcats concluded an up-and-down season in ignominious fashion. The fact that Arizona coughed up a 40-21 lead in the fourth quarter only made it worse.
Winning on Saturday wouldn’t erase everything that occurred on the preceding 11 Saturdays. But as longtime ASU reporter Doug Haller wrote for The Athletic this week, “This game has healing powers. A bad season doesn’t seem as bad if you win. A good season doesn’t seem as good if you lose.”
Neither of Sumlin’s first two seasons can be classified as “good.” Even if they had reclaimed the Territorial Cup and won a bowl game last year, the Wildcats would have finished with the same record, 7-6, as the previous season. That mark, by the way, tied for the second-worst under Rich Rodriguez during his six seasons at the helm.
The ASU game shouldn’t and probably won’t decide Sumlin’s fate. Despite rampant speculation that he could be fired, that scenario is considered unlikely. The expectation is that Sumlin will return for a third season.
What difference would a season-ending win make?
In the standings, not much. In the court of public opinion, a lot. Inside the locker room?
“If we win and we bring the Territorial Cup back home,” UA receiver Jamarye Joiner said, “we just get our self-esteem back.”
Last year’s ending felt deflating. Contrast that with the ending to 2016, a game contested under similar circumstances. Arizona had lost eight in a row entering the ’16 Territorial Cup — two more than the current team’s skid. The Wildcats won anyway, eliminating the Sun Devils from postseason play.
“It just goes to show you that record doesn’t really mean anything,” said senior defensive tackle Finton Connolly, a member of that team. “The difference was that we just came in there with nothing to lose, and they didn’t bring the best intensity. They thought they were going to walk through us.”
The impact of that result is impossible to quantify. Arizona clearly had a better season the following year — but was just 2-2 before Khalil Tate took off and led the Wildcats to four straight wins.
Put it this way: Winning the Territorial Cup, no matter what comes before or after it, beats the alternative.
Patience down, cost up
Looking for a silver lining heading into the 2020 season? Trevon Mason was a regular starter last season, but is on the second team this year.
One record does mean something: Sumlin’s.
A win Saturday would make him 10-14 in two seasons. A loss would make him 9-15. That isn’t what anyone anticipated when Sumlin took over in January 2018, inheriting a 7-6 team featuring a star quarterback in Tate.
Defensive tackle Trevon Mason wasn’t around then, but something he said this week about his first season as a Wildcat summarized the situation perfectly.
“It was good,” the junior college transfer said. “Not as good as I expected. I wanted to win some more games. I wanted to go to a bowl game. But not everything happens as you expect it.”
Sumlin had only one losing season in 10 years as a head coach before taking over the UA program. That happened in his third year at Houston, when multiple quarterbacks got hurt, including record-setting future pro Case Keenum.
Rodriguez’s record in his first two seasons at Arizona was 16-10. He took over a team that had gone 4-8 in 2011.
Mike Stoops posted a 6-16 record in his first two campaigns. The Wildcats went 2-10 the year before Stoops arrived in Tucson.
Stoops would coach another 5½ seasons at Arizona. It wasn’t until his fifth year that the Wildcats posted an above-.500 record.
The climate in college football has changed since then. Schools aren’t nearly as patient as they used to be. Florida State fired Willie Taggart in early November, less than two years into his tenure with the Seminoles.
Administrations have become less patient despite coaches’ buyouts skyrocketing. Taggart’s buyout has been reported to be north of $17 million.
If Sumlin were fired before Jan. 16, he’d be owed $10 million. Half of that would be due within 30 days; the other half would be due upon the original conclusion of his five-year contract — Jan. 15, 2023.
The buyout amount would drop to $7.5 million on Jan. 16. But if UA President Robert C. Robbins and athletic director Dave Heeke decided to move on from Sumlin — again, it’s not the expected sequence of events — they wouldn’t wait that long, no matter the cost.
Attempts to reach Heeke this week were unsuccessful.
‘Not an overnight thing’
Arizona wide receiver Jamarye Joiner, a former quarterback, flashed considerable upside — 34 catches for 552 yards and five touchdowns — in his first season as a pass catcher.
Players from different classes and different sides of the ball say they’ve seen signs of progress under Sumlin, even if it’s not reflected in on-field results.
“There’s a lot of stuff that’s going on that people from the outside don’t see,” said Joiner, who’s in his second season. “They don’t see what’s on the inside. We build every day. We’re getting better every day.
“And that’s not an overnight thing. It takes time and it takes patience and it takes a lot of effort and attitude.”
Connolly, who began his UA career under Rodriguez, said “things are definitely heading in the right direction” under Sumlin.
Connolly urged doubters to exercise the impulse that’s so often lacking these days.
“He’s only two years in, and I’ve already seen big improvements,” Connolly said. “It’s still fresh. I think people need to give it some time.”
Connolly said it takes time “for great change to happen.” UA fans would settle for noticeable improvement.
Arizona does have some promising building blocks at the skills positions, offensive and defensive tackle and cornerback. Whether that makes a difference Saturday remains to be seen. The oddsmakers certainly don’t think so; ASU is favored by almost two touchdowns.
Sumlin’s message to the team after last week’s loss to Utah at least appears to be resonating. Sumlin spoke about winning the Territorial Cup for the departing seniors. It has become the Wildcats’ rallying cry.
“They want the Cup. That’s the least I can do for the seniors that are leaving now,” Mason said. “That’s it really for this season. I’m gonna play my heart out.”
One of those seniors, Connolly, has visualized how it all might unfold. Arizona improbably pulls off the upset. The crowd goes silent while the Wildcats celebrate. The team giddily buses home to Tucson with the Territorial Cup in tow.
“It would mean everything,” Connolly said.
