The Pac-12 dissolved 14 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams.
A forgettable weekend turned worse for Oregon as the results rolled in Saturday afternoon, then went next-level bad when the Associated Press Top-25 poll was released Sunday morning.
It wasnβt enough that the Ducks were beaten soundly on their home field by Indiana. They are now hurtling toward the worst possible scenario for anyone who bleeds green and yellow:
Rooting for Washington.
And USC.
That blood-curdling future is rooted not in the Big Ten championship race but, rather, the College Football Playoff selection process.
Hereβs why:
The Ducks (5-1) will easily advance to the CFP if they win out. But a second regular-season loss would create a curious situation if Oregon finishes in third or fourth place β perhaps alone, perhaps in a tie β and is a candidate for the at-large pool.
That could be a slightly precarious position if the Ducks have a glaring hole in their rΓ©sumΓ©: No wins over teams in the CFP selection committeeβs final rankings.
The CFP rankings, which begin their weekly rollout in November, arenβt identical to the AP Top 25 poll, but they are typically close enough to offer a reasonable proxy for this discussion.
As anyone who has followed the selection process over the years knows, victories over ranked opponents are an important metric for the committee.
None of Oregonβs wins to date have come against teams currently appearing in the AP poll β the victory at Penn State has lost all value β and only one of the six remaining opponents is currently ranked (No. 20 USC).
Oregon defensive back Brandon Finney (4) celebrates after his pick six during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Indiana, Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, in Eugene, Ore.
If the Ducks finish 10-2 with no wins over ranked opponents, there are zero guarantees, especially if other teams in the two-loss cluster possess that which Oregon lacks.
Yes, Indiana made the CFP last year without beating a ranked team, but the Hoosiers were 11-1, not 10-2.
In fact, only two teams finished 10-2, did not reach their conference championship and still qualified for the CFP through the at-large field: Ohio State and Tennessee.
The Buckeyes had two wins over ranked teams (Penn State and Indiana), and the Volunteers had one (Alabama).
If the Ducks finish 10-2 and get boxed out of the Big Ten championship, they might need at least one victory over a ranked opponent to win a resume showdown against a two-loss SEC team.
Their upcoming schedule features Rutgers (3-3), Wisconsin (2-4), Iowa (4-2), Minnesota (4-2), USC (5-1) and Washington (5-1).
Only the Trojans and Huskies have a reasonable path to the selection committeeβs final Top 25, but they need to keep winning.
The process of rooting for the enemy begins in earnest this weekend, when Washington visits Michigan and USC heads to Notre Dame.
Repeat after me, Duck fans: βGo Huskies!β
How hard was that?
To the bowl projections ...
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The sweetest of CFP spots is the second tier, the No. 5-8 seeds, which donβt have the three-and-a-half week break and host an opening-round game. The worst spot? The No. 9-12 seeds, which are on the road in the opening round.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: We canβt discount the possibility, however remote, that USC (5-1) emerges as a playoff contender. The Trojans would have to navigate a schedule that includes trips to Notre Dame, Nebraska and Oregon with no more than one loss.
Washington wide receiver Dezmen Roebuck, left, celebrates his touchdown against Maryland with cornerback Tacario Davis (8) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025, in College Park, Md.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: The Hotline has officially set UWβs regular-season win total at 8.5, based on the Huskiesβ current record (5-1) and the upcoming schedule. Whether they finish 9-3 or 8-4 should not, however, have a significant impact on their bowl tier.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: Quick reminder for the Utes (5-1) and every team listed here: Bowl officials will select teams based on overall record, not conference record. Additionally, bowls have the option to use the one-win-down rule, in which they can pass over Team X in favor of Team Y if there is no more than a one-game difference in record.
Sun Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: How teams perform relative to expectations can impact selections, because bowls view disappointing seasons as indications that ticket sales and hotel bookings will be light. If the Sun Devils (4-2) finish with three or four losses, they could slide.
LA Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The key game for the Cougars (3-3) isnβt this week, when they visit Virginia. Itβs next week, when they host Toledo. Lose to the Rockets, and the path to six wins narrows substantially.
ESPN bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: Brent Brennan was spot on about the double-edged nature of the loss to BYU: The Wildcats (4-2) are good enough to push one of the best teams in the conference to overtime but not good enough to make the handful of plays necessary to beat one of the best.
ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The likely destinations within the ESPN pool of games are the Armed Forces, First Responders and Gasparilla Bowls. We arenβt sure any of those would satisfy Calβs administration, which is on-the-record indicating six or seven wins isnβt good enough.
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita (1) celebrates with wide receiver Chris Hunter after scoring a touchdown against Kansas State on Sept. 12, 2025, at Arizona Stadium.
Non-qualifiers
Colorado: Despite the victory over Iowa State β a modest upset, for sure β the Buffaloes (3-4) have too few wins, and too many difficult games remaining, for the Hotline to declare a bowl bid the most likely outcome.
Oregon State: Donβt be surprised if the Beavers (0-7) experience a short-term bounce following the dismissal of Trent Bray. Too little too late is better than nothing at all.
Stanford: Not on our ACC bingo card for 2025: The Cardinal (2-4) would have a one-game lead over Florida State in the standings when the Seminoles make their mid-October visit.
UCLA: The Bruins (2-4) can beat anyone on their remaining schedule or lose to anyone on their remaining schedule. Nothing would surprise us. But we wonβt attempt to predict how the final six weeks will play out.
