Arizona’s record last season was no fluke. The Wildcats very much deserved to go 1-11.
No one could question their effort or determination. They played with a ton of heart.
But the 2021 Cats struggled in far too many areas to win much more than did.
Coaches and players aren’t dwelling on the past, instead emphasizing this new and — at least on paper — improved version of UA football. We won’t spend much time looking back either.
But here at “Cats Stats,” we’re all about the numbers. With Arizona yet to play a game in 2022 — the season opener is Saturday at San Diego State — the only hard numbers available are from 2021.
Here are 10 statistics from last season that the Wildcats must improve to nudge themselves toward bowl eligibility:
Red-zone offense
You might have heard a thing or two about this. Arizona had the worst red-zone touchdown rate in the nation last season at 30.8%. The next worst was New Mexico at 38.5%. Every other team in the country was at 40% or higher. The next-worst Pac-12 team was USC at 54.9%.
The 2022 Wildcats are banking on a new quarterback (Jayden de Laura), new skill-position players (including some really tall ones) and improved offensive line play to turn this stat around. Jedd Fisch would be thrilled if he never had to talk about it again.
Red-zone defense
The ‘21 Cats just weren’t a very good team once the ball penetrated the 20-yard line. Arizona ranked 128th (out of 130) in red-zone touchdown rate against (76.3%). Opponents scored TDs on 29 of 38 opportunities. Only UAB (77.5%) and Kansas (81%) were worse.
This year’s team has a new defensive coordinator (Johnny Nansen) and a new scheme. A veteran secondary is the strength of the unit. But can the Wildcats stop the run when they know it’s coming?
Turnovers gained
Taking the ball away more would help. A lot.
Arizona forced only six turnovers last season, tying Syracuse for fewest in the nation. Excluding 2020, a shortened season for many because of the pandemic, that was the lowest total for an FBS school since Rice had only six takeaways in 2017. Those Owls also went 1-11.
Nansen talks about turnovers daily. He isn’t unique in that regard. It’s worth noting, though, that UCLA forced 21 turnovers last season, when Nansen and his right-hand man, Jason Kaufusi, were coaching the Bruins’ defensive front.
Interceptions thrown
Arizona quarterbacks threw 18 picks last season, tying Florida for most in the nation. (New Arizona State QB Emory Jones, a Gator last season, threw 13 interceptions, tied for most in the SEC.) Even screen passes weren’t safe from harm.
The Wildcats have a new QB depth chart this season. The only holdover in the top three is Jordan McCloud, whose five-pick outing at Oregon last season seems like a statistical anomaly. He had 35 pass attempts that night. He had 37 additional attempts for Arizona with no picks. At South Florida, he had 10 interceptions in 418 attempts.
New starter De Laura lowered his interception rate from 3.1% in 2020 (four in 129 attempts) to 2.5% last year (nine in 359). He also improved in that regard over the course of training camp.
Deep-ball efficiency
De Laura is willing to take shots downfield — and was significantly better at it last year than any UA passer.
According to our colleagues at Pro Football Focus — whose data we’ll be utilizing all season — de Laura posted the following stat line on passes thrown 20 or more yards last year at Washington State: 26 of 63, 890 yards, nine touchdowns, four interceptions. He had a 41.3% completion rate on those throws and averaged 14.3 yards per attempt.
Meanwhile, four Wildcats combined to complete only 11 of 49 downfield passes for 344 yards with two touchdowns and six picks. The only passer with a positive TD-INT ratio (1-0) was Jamarye Joiner — who wasn’t even a quarterback!
Contested-catch rate
This is another stat from our friends at PFF — and another way for Arizona to improve its offensive efficiency, especially in the red zone.
The Wildcats had a contested-catch rate of 39.2% last season. Pac-12 champion Utah was at 50.7%. De Laura’s WSU squad came in at 46%.
The four wide receivers who played 250-plus snaps for Arizona in 2021 are no longer with the team, for better or worse. Stanley Berryhill III and Boobie Curry combined to snag 11 of 18 contested balls (61.1%). Tayvian Cunningham and BJ Casteel were a combined 5 of 18 (27.8%).
This is one area where new No. 1 receiver Jacob Cowing can stand to improve. PFF had him at 37% (10 of 27) last year at UTEP.
Average gain allowed per pass attempt
The good news: Arizona limited the opposition to 190.1 passing yards per game, second fewest in the Pac-12. It was the first time that figure had been below 200 since 2008.
The bad news: The Wildcats yielded 8.1 yards per pass attempt, the second-highest figure in the league. Opponents attempted only 283 passes against Arizona, mainly because they were playing with the lead more often than not. Those attempts yielded far too many big plays and a league-high 25 touchdowns.
The hope is that Nansen’s zone-oriented coverage scheme and an experienced, slightly reconfigured secondary will result in fewer breakdowns.
Rushing offense
Remember when Arizona excelled at running the ball? As recently as 2019, the Wildcats ranked third in the Pac-12 in rushing yards per game. They were No. 1 from 2016-18.
Arizona fell to eighth in 2021, averaging 129.7 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. Taking sacks out of the mix, those numbers climb to 150.6 and 4.6 — better, but still not at peak RichRod levels.
The Wildcats have added talent to their tailback corps, and Fisch has said they must be able to run the ball in the red zone to maximize their effectiveness there. Much of his offense — with its play-action, bootlegs and fly sweeps — is predicated on the run game.
Sacks allowed
Arizona surrendered the most sacks in the Pac-12 (35) and lost the most yardage because of them (251). The offensive line must perform better in all areas. It returns enough starting experience and front-line talent to take a step forward.
What role might de Laura play here? The quarterback works in concert with the offensive line. If the QB can get the ball out on time on a regular basis, that sack total will go down.
PFF tracks the percentage of pressures that turn into sacks — basically a way to measure sack avoidance. The lower the rate, the better.
De Laura came in at 16.3% last year compared to 18.9% for Will Plummer and 20.9% for Gunner Cruz. McCloud’s figure was 12.9% — one of the reasons the offense moved the ball when he played.
Third-down percentage
Yet another area that undermined the UA offense last season. The Wildcats ranked last in the conference at 32.1%. That figure tied for 120th in the nation with Rutgers and ... San Diego State. (Don’t underestimate the importance of the punt game Saturday.)
Running the ball better, mitigating negative plays, making more contested catches — do all or most of the above, and you won’t face nearly as many of those third-and-long scenarios that are so difficult to convert.
Arizona’s worst third-down performance last year? The Wildcats were 1 of 14 against SDSU. They managed only seven points before scoring a second touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. The game was well out of reach by then.
