Cats Stats: Midseason numbers show Arizona is making progress, especially on defense

Arizona defense making progress after 'one downfall'

The Arizona Wildcats are halfway through Kevin Sumlin’s first season and seemingly stuck in neutral.

Arizona is 3-3 overall. The Wildcats lost their first two games, won the next two and split the past two. At varying times, the offense, defense and special teams have excelled. Rarely have all three happened for four straight quarters.

Despite the ebbs and flows, the players believe they’re trending in the right direction entering the start of the second half Friday night at Utah.

“The one downfall we had was Houston. Every other game I feel like we’re learning, we’re developing,” sophomore linebacker Tony Fields II said. “We’re getting better and better as a defense — really, as a team.”

To determine whether that’s true, we decided to revisit the five topics previously broached in “Cats Stats.” Generally speaking, the numbers don’t lie.

1. QB rushing attempts

Key numbers then: UA quarterback Khalil Tate had only eight rushing attempts in the opener against BYU, his lowest total for a game in which he played three-plus quarters. We examined the year-to-year rushing attempts of seven iconic dual-threat quarterbacks from the past 20 years and concluded that most of them continued to run the ball about the same amount after their breakout seasons.

What’s happened since: Tate rolled his left ankle against Houston, an injury that has bothered him periodically since.

Over a three-game stretch — against Houston, Oregon State and Southern Utah — Tate had only 15 rushing attempts. They netted 18 yards.

The Houston game was such a lopsided affair, it might not have mattered what Tate did. The Southern Utah and Oregon State games were one-sided the other way. Tate passed for a career-high 349 yards with five touchdowns against the Thunderbirds and had two more TD passes against the Beavers, who yielded 451 rushing yards to Wildcats other than Tate.

Things changed a bit the past two weeks. Tate had a season-high 13 rushes against USC, netting 38 yards. He had eight rushes against Cal for 40, including a season-long 17-yarder. Add those up, and it’s 21 carries for 78 yards — compared to 23 for 32 the first four weeks.

Tate’s average over the past two weeks — 10.5 attempts — is about what we expected under Noel Mazzone. It’s within the range of what Brett Hundley and Trevor Knight did under Mazzone — although far below Tate’s average of 16.9 attempts in the eight games in which he played three-plus quarters last season.

Progress made? Yes.

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2. Points per play

Key numbers then: Through their first two games, the Wildcats averaged .243 points per play — exacerbated by the Houston game, in which they ran 100 plays but scored only 18 points (including a safety). Arizona averaged .591 points per play in 2017. The national average last season for FBS teams was .412.

What’s happened since: In the four subsequent games, the Wildcats have scored at a rate closer to what they did last year. They have run 257 plays and have 141 points. That equates to .549 points per play.

For the purpose of simplicity, we did not include defensive or special-teams touchdowns when examining points-per-play percentages in the original piece. The Wildcats’ percentage would be lower, of course, if their kickoff-return touchdown against Southern Utah and their pair of defensive scores against Cal were excluded from the equation.

Keeping all that stuff in, here are Arizona’s points per play for the past four games:

• vs. Southern Utah: 1.033
• vs. Oregon State: .515
• vs. USC: .286
• vs. Cal: .407

Overall, Arizona is averaging .423 points per play. The national average for FBS teams so far is .444.

In Pac-12 play, the Wildcats are averaging .399 points per play. In league games last year, their average was .580.

So while they have improved in this area, the Cats’ efficiency remains well below the standard they set in 2017.

Progress made? Yes.

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3. Third-down defense

Key numbers then: Heading into Pac-12 play, Arizona was allowing opponents to convert 44.2 percent of their third downs. That rate, which ranked 109th in the nation, represented a slight improvement from the defense’s first two seasons under coordinator Marcel Yates. However, the Wildcats were yielding a 41.4 percent conversion rate when foes faced third-and-7 or longer, significantly higher than what should be expected in those situations.

What’s happened since: In the past three games, Arizona’s opponents have converted 43.8 percent of their third downs — about the same as the first three games.

But in third-and-long situations, the UA defense has taken a significant step forward. Opponents have converted only 29.4 percent of their third downs when needing 7 or more yards.

Additionally, the defense is creating more third-and-long scenarios. Opponents averaged 9.7 third-and-long attempts in the first three games — and 11.3 in the past three. Opponents needed 7 or more yards on 55.8 percent of their third downs in the first three games, 70.8 in the past three.

Arizona is doing a better job on first, second and third downs over the past three games. The Wildcats also are faring better on fourth down. Opponents converted 8 of 10 fourth downs the first three weeks, just 2 of 6 the past three.

Progress made? Yes.

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4. Lack of takeaways

Key numbers then: Arizona had only one takeaway through four games. The Wildcats were one of five FBS teams that had just one. Up to that point, they were 4-14 under Yates when forcing one or zero turnovers and 8-3 when they forced two or more.

What’s happened since: The turnovers have come in bunches. Arizona took the ball away from USC three times and Cal four times. Two of the takeaways against the Golden Bears ended in touchdowns for the Wildcats. They were the difference in the game.

Despite a turnover margin of plus-2 in each contest, Arizona was able to win only one of them. Updating the records, the Wildcats are now 9-4 under Yates when forcing two or more turnovers.

The piece on takeaways also examined Arizona’s turnover luck, which tends to balance out over time. Entering the USC game, UA opponents had fumbled five times. The Wildcats didn’t recover any of them. Since then, they have recovered four of six opponent fumbles.

Arizona also wasn’t procuring as many interceptions as it should have. Through four games, the Wildcats had defensed 20 passes but intercepted only one. Their 5 percent success rate was well below the standard of about 22 percent.

Since then, Arizona has defensed 10 passes and intercepted three — a 30 percent clip.

Progress made? Yes.

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5. Tate’s efficiency

Key numbers then: Entering the Cal game, Tate had attempted 20 or fewer passes eight times. He had a 68.7 percent completion rate; a 13-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio; and averaged 12.56 yards per attempt in those games. The Wildcats’ record: 7-1. In the six games in which Tate threw more than 20 times, he had a 52.0 percent completion rate; an 11-8 TD-INT ratio; and averaged 6.75 yards per attempt. Arizona’s record: 0-6.

What’s happened since: Tate busted the trend against Cal, although there are asterisks attached.

The junior completed 15 of 25 passes for 141 yards with one touchdown and one interception. It was just the second time in his UA career that Tate completed 60 percent or better when throwing more than 20 passes. The other instance came against Purdue in the 2017 Foster Farms Bowl.

That’s all good. But it should be noted that 12 of Tate’s 15 completions came on throws at or near the line of scrimmage; they were essentially an extension of the run game. The others were a 15-yard slant to Cedric Peterson, a 13-yard screen to J.J. Taylor and a 31-yard pass to Tony Ellison.

Tate notched his first win when attempting more than 20 passes. The result, however, further exposed the fallacy of quarterback wins. Tate didn’t deserve a victory against Cal any more than he deserved losses against Arizona State and Purdue last season.

Progress made? Yes.

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