Greg Hansen's guide: History shows Wildcats due for another deep NCAA Tournament run

Editor's note: This story appears in the Star's NCAA Tournament preview section, which you can read in its entirety by clicking here.

Cats typically cruise early as No. 1 seed

In six opening games as a No.1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Arizona has been in a worry-free zone, able to clear the bench on all six occasions.

Not once did the Wildcats wobble. No. 1 seeds have gone 143-1 against No. 16 seeds in tournament history. The only loss: UMBC shocked Virginia 74-54 in 2018.

Here’s how Arizona cleared its bench in its 6-0 streak of 1-vs.-16 openers:

1988: Arizona 90, Cornell 50. Lute Olson played his reserves 82 of the 200 minutes. Jud Buechler, Harvey Mason and Joe Turner combined to score 25 points. Stat of the game: Cornell committed an astronomic 27 turnovers.

1989: Arizona 94, Robert Morris 60. Wildcat reserves played 65 minutes with Sean Rooks scoring 16 points in 14 minutes. Stat of the game: It was 54-26 Arizona at halftime.

1998: Arizona 99, Nicholls State 60. The Wildcat bench played 67 total minutes but not all were productive. Junior Jason Terry shot 0 for 9 — although he did have four steals and seven assists. Stat of the game: Nicholls State point guard James Bank shot 1 for 10 with eight turnovers.

2000: Arizona 71, Jackson State 47. UA reserve forward Justin Wessel played 27 minutes — at center. He was filling in for injured Loren Woods, although Arizona started three forwards: Luke Walton, Richard Jefferson and Michael Wright. Stat of the game: Wright had a 19-point, 13-rebound double-double.

2003: Arizona 80, Vermont 51. UA reserves played 70 minutes. Andre Iguodala — no, he didn’t start — played 21 minutes. Stat of the game: Salim Stoudamire made as many 3-pointers — four — as the entire Vermont team.

2014: Arizona 68, Weber State 59. In the closest of Arizona’s 1-vs.-16 games, Weber State fell behind by 19 and closed the gap, although nothing threatening, in the final minutes. Arizona freshman reserve Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was terrific, with 13 points, shooting 5 for 5 from the field. Stat of the game: Arizona blocked 12 Weber State shots, five each by Aaron Gordon and Kaleb Tarczewski.

No men’s NCAA Tournament games in Tucson anytime soon

Until former Arizona athletic director Greg Byrne and basketball coach Sean Miller decided not to bid to be a host for the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament starting in 2012, McKale Center had been host to the tournament 10 times between 1977-2011.

Only Utah’s Huntsman Center (12), the Philadelphia Palestra (12) and the Dayton Arena (13) have been a first-weekend host site more times.

Unfortunately for Tucson basketball fans, the men's NCAA Tournament will not return to McKale Center until 2027, at the earliest. Byrne and Miller decided that playing host to the NCAAs would likely mean Arizona would be sent to a more distant venue, prohibiting large groups of UA fans at those games.

Now there’s a new variable: Arizona has emerged as an attractive option to host the women’s NCAA Tournament. McKale Center could not accommodate two tournaments in the same season.

For the next four years, the NCAA men's tournament's first-and second-round Western venues are as follows:

2023: Sacramento and Denver. The West Regional will be at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

2024: Salt Lake City and Spokane. The West Regional will be in Los Angeles.

2025: Seattle and Denver. The West Regional will be at the Chase Center in San Francisco.

2026: Portland and San Diego. The West Regional will be held in San Jose.

Scoring 30 is rare for Wildcats

Five Wildcats have scored 30 or more points in an NCAA Tournament game. Here’s how it stacks up:

32 points: Derrick Williams vs. Duke, 2011 Sweet 16

32 points: Khalid Reeves vs. Loyola (Md.), 1994 Round of 64

31 points: Sean Elliott vs. Oklahoma, 1988 Final Four

31 points: Herman Harris v. UNLV, 1976 Sweet 16

30 points: Miles Simon vs. Kentucky, 1997 championship game

30 points: Miles Simon vs. Providence, 1997 Elite Eight

30 points: Khalid Reeves vs. Virginia, 1994 Round of 32

The only loss among the 30-point scorers was Elliott’s '88 game in the Final Four.

The three top-scoring UA opponents in the NCAA Tournament are as follows:

35 points: Mike Glenn, Southern Illinois, 1977 first round

32 points: Kyle Hill, Eastern Illinois, 2001 first round

32 points: Mark Hull, UC Santa Barbara, 2002 first round

Those totals don’t threaten the tournament-record of 61 points set by Notre Dame’s Austin Carr against Ohio in 1970. Incredibly, Carr also scored 52 points twice in NCAA Tournament games.

Cats have feasted on No. 1 seeds

Over the 71-year period Arizona has played in NCAA Tournaments, its most impressive statistic is that it has  more victories, seven, over No. 1 seeds than any other school.

If that doesn’t make you a blueblood, what does?

At the bottom end, Arizona has won six games each against No. 15 and No. 16 seeds.

The Wildcats are 7-7 in their 14 games against No. 1 seeds.

Here’s how it played out:

1994: Defeated No. 1 Missouri 92-72 at the Elite Eight in Los Angeles

1997: Defeated No. 1 Kansas, 85-82 at the Sweet 16 in Birmingham, Alabama

1997: Defeated No. 1 North Carolina 66-58 at the Final Four in Indianapolis

1997: Defeated No. 1 Kentucky 84-79 in the championship game in Indianapolis.

2001: Defeated No. 1 Illinois 87-81 at the Elite Eight in San Antonio

2001: Defeated No 1 Michigan State 80-61 at the Final Four in Minneapolis

2011: Defeated No. 1 Duke 93-77 at the Sweet 16 in Anaheim

The formula for losing in NCAAs: bad 3-point defense

Six of Arizona’s most painful NCAA Tournament exits are tied to one thing: an opponent’s ability to make 3-point baskets.

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For example:

• Illinois made 16 3-pointers in a stunning comeback to beat Arizona in the 2005 Elite Eight.

• Buffalo made 15 3-pointers in the UA's devastating first-round loss in 2018.

• Louisville knocked Arizona out of the 2009 Sweet 16 by making 14 3-pointers.

• East Tennessee State scored the first shocking first-round upset of the Lute Olson years, making 13 3-pointers in 1992.

• Wisconsin made 12 3-pointers in a forgettable 2015 Elite Eight victory over the Wildcats.

UA first-year coaches have been so-so in NCAA Tournament 

Tommy Lloyd is the seventh Arizona head coach to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here’s how his predecessors fared in their debut appearances:

• Fred Enke (1950-51): Lost to Kansas State, 61-59

• Fred Snowden (1975-76): Defeated Georgetown, 83-76

• Lute Olson (1978-79 at Iowa): Lost to No. 5 seed Toledo, 74-72

• Sean Miller (2006-07 at Xavier): Defeated No. 8 seed BYU, 79-77

• Kevin O’Neill (1992-93 at Marquette): Lost to No. 5 seed Ohio State, 74-62

• Russ Pennell (2008-09): Defeated No. 5 seed Utah, 84-71

Preseason Top 25 was full of errors

College basketball is such a game of change, even moreso with the advent of the NCAA transfer portal in recent years, that accurately predicting the preseason Top 25 has become more of a guess than ever.

The final regular-season AP poll includes 10 unranked teams from the season's first poll, in November. Here’s the Cinderella 10:

2. Arizona (31-3). NCAA Tournament seed: 1

12. Texas Tech (25-9). NCAA Tournament seed: 3

13. Providence (25-5). NCAA Tournament seed: 4

14. Wisconsin (24-7). NCAA Tournament seed: 3

16. Iowa (26-9). NCAA Tournament seed: 5

18. Saint Mary’s (25-7). NCAA Tournament seed: 5

20. Murray State (30-2). NCAA Tournament seed: 7

22. USC (26-7). NCAA Tournament seed: 7

23. Boise State (27-7). NCAA Tournament seed: 8

24. Colorado State (25-5). NCAA Tournament seed: 6

Of the nine schools ranked in the preseason top 25 that finished outside of the final poll, the biggest drop was by Maryland. The Terrapins were ranked No. 21 initially but finished 15-17 and coach Mark Turgeon resigned.

The others who finished unranked were preseason No. 6 Michigan, No. 13 Oregon, No. 14 Alabama, No. 17 Ohio State, No. 19 North Carolina, No. 20 Florida State, No. 23 St. Bonaventure and No. 25 Virginia.

Overtime games? Expect them in March

The most exciting game in March so far was probably Houston Baptist’s four-overtime 149-144 victory over McNeese State on March 5.

Alas, it didn’t count for much. Houston Baptist finished 11-22 and McNeese State 11-18. And maybe it wasn’t that exciting. Houston Baptist’s Darius Lee scored 52 points, but it required 27 free-throw attempts — of which there were 110 in the game.

March Madness thrives on overtime thrillers. In Arizona’s 90 games in the NCAAs, it has played seven overtime games. That’s uncommon. The Wildcats played one overtime game this season — an 82-78 victory over Wichita State in a November game in Las Vegas. Wichita State didn’t turn out to be much; the Shockers finished 15-13.

Before that, Arizona required 197 games to play in seven overtime games. Therefore, it's twice as likely to play overtime games in the NCAA Tournament. Here’s how the UA’s seven NCAA Tournament games finished:

1976: Arizona 114, UNLV 111. In only the third NCAA game in Arizona history, played at UCLA’s Pauley Pavilion, the Wildcats survived as four UNLV players fouled out and point guard Jim Rappis almost played a perfect game with 12 assists and no turnovers and shot 10 for 14 afield.

1987: UTEP 98, Arizona, 91. The only time Arizona played an NCAA Tournament game at McKale Center didn’t go well. Steve Kerr, a junior, was out with a knee injury.

1997: Arizona 96, Providence 92. In a tense Elite Eight game in Birmingham, Alabama, Arizona overcame a 23-point game by God Shammgod — yes, God Shammgod — to win in overtime.

1997: Arizona 84, Kentucky 79. The national championship game wasn’t a thing of beauty — Arizona shot just 37% — but Miles Simon went 14 for 17 from the foul line to win it.

2003: Arizona 96, Gonzaga 95, 2OTs. In Salt Lake City, Arizona survived only when the Zags’ Blake Stepp missed an open 10-footer as time expired in regulation.

2005: Illinois 90, Arizona 89. In Chicago, in perhaps the most anguishing loss in school history, Arizona blew a 15-point lead in the final four minutes of regulation. The game was played before 16,957 fans, almost 95% of them nearby Illini fans.

2014: Wisconsin 64, Arizona 63. In Anaheim, Pac-12 player of the year Nick Johnson couldn’t get a shot off as the clock expired. Tears fell.

One man’s Final Four selections

Kenpom.com ranks Arizona’s strength of schedule as No. 66 nationally. That’s no exaggeration.

Because the Pac-12 was unusually soft this season, the Wildcats’ potential Round of 32 game in San Diego against Seton Hall or TCU is likely to be more difficult than any game against a Pac-12 opponent except UCLA.

That’s the leading issue for Arizona. Can the Wildcats respond to an upgrade in competition and survive a gauntlet of, say, Seton Hall, Illinois and Tennessee (or Villanova) to get to the Final Four? I think Illinois, Tennessee and Villanova could've won the Pac-12 this season.

Nor would it shock me if three SEC teams (Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee) or three Big 12 teams (Kansas, Baylor, Texas Tech) reach the Final Four.

The biggest needs in Pac-12 basketball is for UCLA to remain a Final Four contender, for Oregon to return to the Top 25 neighborhood and for someone from the middle of the pack — Colorado, Washington or ASU — to recruit more effectively and provide more competition for Arizona.

My Final Four — with how the Elite Eight matchups will look:

• Kansas over Auburn in a classic No. 1 vs. No. 2 Elite Eight

• Gonzaga over Duke in Mike Krzyzewski’s final game

• UCLA over Kentucky behind the JJs: Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez

• Arizona over Tennessee in a game that won’t be good on your nervous system