The Pac-12 hasn’t produced a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament since Oregon earned the honors in 2016, but two teams are in position to end the drought.
UCLA’s lofty perch midway through the season comes as no surprise. But Arizona’s stellar résumé under first-year coach Tommy Lloyd is just this side of shocking. The Wildcats haven’t won a tournament game in five years, much less contended for a high seed.
At the moment, the outlook is bright. They are 14-1 heading into Thursday night’s late game at Stanford, with two first-class wins and no bad losses. They certainly look the part of a No. 1 seed, and their résumé is pleasing to the algorithms that underpin the NCAA selection process — hence their No. 2 position in the all-important NET rankings.
In other words, the Wildcats pass the eye test and the computational test.
As we see it, their Selection Sunday fate depends largely on a fast-approaching, 12-day stretch that features three dates with UCLA (No. 20 in the NET) and USC (No. 28):
Tuesday: at UCLA
Feb. 3: vs. UCLA
Feb. 5: vs. USC
Using those three games as the foundation for a broader assessment, the Wildcats must clear four hurdles in order to remains in contention for a No. 1 seed:
1. Play the games
Depressing as it might seem 22 months into the pandemic, no game is guaranteed until the participants are on the court for tipoff. And because the Pac-12 has so few teams in contention for the NCAAs, resume-boosting opportunities for the Wildcats are few and far between.
They can dine on Utah and Washington all they want; those wins won’t get them to the No. 1 line. Arizona needs to beat other tournament-bound teams, which cannot happen unless the combatants clear COVID-19 protocols.
2. Win two of three
A three-game sweep of the L.A. schools isn’t necessary for the Wildcats to remain on course for a No. 1 seed. Remember, the other top-line contenders (Gonzaga, Baylor, Duke, Kansas, etc.) will lose games in conference play — the Blue Devils did just that against Florida State on Tuesday night, in fact.
But with two of the three at home, Arizona needs two wins to validate its credentials. There’s no guarantee the Wildcats will face either L.A. team in the Pac-12 tournament, or that any other Pac-12 team will be worthy of an NCAA bid.
Their final chance to leave a lasting impression on the selection committee just might be Feb. 5.
Azoulas Tubelis and the Wildcats will play UCLA on Tuesday and again on Feb. 3.
3. Avoid bad losses
The Pac-12 schedule is fraught with opponents so far down the NET rankings that losses, especially at home, would undercut Arizona’s resume.
We’re speaking specifically of upcoming dates against ASU, Cal, Stanford and Oregon State. Lose in McKale Center to any of the four, and the damage could be irreparable.
4. Get help from the Big Ten
Arizona’s best win to date is the four-point escape at Illinois, which currently owns a No. 11 NET ranking. Not far behind is the evisceration of No. 53 Michigan.
The Wildcats need the Illini and Wolverines to hold their own in the Big Ten and continue crafting NCAA-worthy résumés.
And don’t forget about Wyoming. Arizona’s early-December victory will enhance its case for a No. 1 seed if the Cowboys are able to maintain their No. 27 position in the NET.
(The Wildcats’ 29-point wipeout is the best sneaky-good win of the season by any team in the Pac-12.)
All in all, we’d classify Arizona’s path to a No. 1 seed as moderately difficult. The Wildcats are plenty capable of beating the L.A. schools twice and avoiding any sinkhole losses, and their vanquished opponents in the Big Ten should aid the cause.
The chief obstacle could be the only undefeated opponent left on the schedule: COVID-19.
