With playoff implications galore, Week 17 is shaping up to be another massive slate in the NFL with just two more regular-season weekends to go.
First and foremost, the Baltimore Ravens can secure the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon.
The Ravens are coming off a huge win over the NFC-leading San Francisco 49ers on Christmas night, and are currently on a five-game winning streak, while also winning nine out of their last 10.
Miami’s hopes for the AFC’s top seed are also in play, if the Dolphins beat Baltimore on New Year's Eve and then beat AFC North rival Buffalo in the regular-season finale.
So it goes without saying that Sunday’s game – where the Ravens are favored by 3 points in Baltimore – is big.
And there’s a lot to consider when picking a winner, especially against the spread.
Baltimore and Miami are both tied for the best record in the NFL ATS at 10-5, along with Tampa Bay and Detroit.
The Ravens are 7-3 against the spot in their last 10 games, including covering four out of the last five. They’ve only been underdogs twice this season and won both times. Oh, and the Ravens are 5-0 in any game they’ve been favored by 4 or less points.
Miami is 4-1 ATS in the last five games and has only been an underdog three other times this season – all as a road team. The Dolphins are 4-2 against the spread on the road, but only 1-2 as an underdog.
Trends would tell you to pick the Ravens to cover. And while we don’t always go with the grain here at FrontPageBets, we do see the writing on the wall: Baltimore to win … and cover.
Speaking of trends, as we try to get back to .500 for the season, we’re going heavy with home favorites in the penultimate regular-season week.
Out of the 15 remaining Week 17 games, we’re going with 12 home teams to win straight up, including eight to cover.
Why, you ask?
Well, for the 2023 season, home favorites have won almost 70% of the games straight up, while covering more than 51% of the time.
Makes sense.
Now … on to the picks!
(All below odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)
Saturday, Dec. 30
Detroit Lions vs. Dallas Cowboys
- When: 8:15 p.m.; ABC/ESPN
- Spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-110); Lions +5.5 (-110)
- Money line: Cowboys -250; Lions +200
- Over/Under: 53.5 (-110)
- The pick: Cowboys, 27-24
Sunday, Dec. 31
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Bills -13 (-110); Patriots +13 (-110)
- Money line: Bills -700; Patriots +500
- Over/Under: 41 (-110)
- The pick: Bills, 24-14
Atlanta Falcons vs. Chicago Bears
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Bears -3 (-110); Falcons +3 (-110)
- Money line: Bears -150; Falcons +125
- Over/Under: 38.5 (-110)
- The pick: Bears, 21-17
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Indianapolis Colts
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Colts -3.5 (-110); Raiders +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Colts -165; Raiders +135
- Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
- The pick: Raiders, 22-20
Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Rams -5 (-110); Giants +5 (-110)
- Money line: Rams -300; Giants +240
- Over/Under: 42 (-110)
- The pick: Rams, 28-12
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Eagles -12 (-110); Cardinals +12 (-110)
- Money line: Eagles -650; Cardinals +450
- Over/Under: 47.5 (-110)
- The pick: Eagles, 32-17
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110); Saints +2.5 (-110)
- Money line: Buccaneers -160; Saints +130
- Over/Under: 42.5 (-110)
- The pick: Buccaneers, 24-20
San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Commanders
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: 49ers -13 (-110); Commanders +13 (-110)
- Money line: 49ers -900; Commanders +600
- Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
- The pick: 49ers, 38-20
Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Jaguars -6 (-110); Panthers +6 (-110)
- Money line: Jaguars -275; Panthers +210
- Over/Under: 37.5 (-110)
- The pick: Jaguars, 35-21
Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens
- When: 1 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Ravens -3 (-110); Dolphins +3 (-110)
- Money line: Ravens -160; Dolphins +135
- Over/Under: 47 (-110)
- The pick: Ravens, 24-20
Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans
- When: 1 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Texans -3.5 (-110); Titans +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Texans -190; Titans +155
- Over/Under: 42.5 (-110)
- The pick: Texans, 28-21
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
- When: 4 p.m.; FOX
- Spread: Seahawks -3.5 (-110); Steelers +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Seahawks -185; Steelers +150
- Over/Under: 41.5 (-110)
- The pick: Seahawks, 20-14
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Denver Broncos
- When: 4:25 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Broncos -3.5 (-110); Chargers +3.5 (-110)
- Money line: Broncos -250; Chargers +200
- Over/Under: 38.5 (-110)
- The pick: Broncos, 17-14
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs
- When: 4:25 p.m.; CBS
- Spread: Chiefs -7 (-110); Bengals +7 (-110)
- Money line: Chiefs -375; Bengals +300
- Over/Under: 45.5 (-110)
- The pick: Chiefs, 31-27
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
- When: 8:20 p.m.; NBC
- Spread: Vikings -2 (-110); Packers +2 (-110)
- Money line: Vikings -130; Packers +110
- Over/Under: 45.5 (-110)
- The pick: Vikings, 30-24
Szvetitz season record: 115-119-6 (49.1%) ATS; 148-92 (61.7%) SU
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