When the Bills run: Coach Sean McDermott said the team did a “deep dive” during the bye week on why the running game has been stuck in mud all season. It will be interesting, then, to see what changes. The first step could be to return Jon Feliciano to right guard, the position he played last year. The Bills have struggled running to the right side this season, averaging less than 3 yards on carries behind either right guard or right tackle. Feliciano is a rugged run blocker who could help fix that problem. The Chargers are the ideal opponent in attempting to fix the running game. Los Angeles ranks 27th in the NFL on a per-rush basis, allowing an average of 4.65 yards per carry. EDGE: Even.
When the Bills throw: The absence of John Brown will hurt the Bills. With him in the lineup, it would have been a challenge for the Chargers to figure out how to cover the trio of Brown, Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley. That becomes easier with Brown out, but in the process, rookie Gabriel Davis has a huge opportunity. Looking forward to 2021, the Bills will surely want to know if Davis is capable of taking on a much larger role in the offense. For as good as Brown has been in two years with the team, he’s 31 years old and has dealt with a variety of leg/ankle/knee/foot injuries this season. For a receiver who relies primarily on his speed, that’s problematic. If the Bills were to cut Brown after this season, the team could save $8 million against the 2021 salary cap. That’s a significant savings, so the idea can’t be outright dismissed. The Bills will have to pay extra attention to Chargers edge rusher Joey Bosa, who can dominate a game. Los Angeles, though, will be without cornerback Casey Hayward Jr. and edge rusher Melvin Ingram III, two big losses. EDGE: Bills.
Jay Skurski answers that and more in this week's mailbag.
When the Chargers run: On a per-rush basis, Los Angeles ranks just 27th in the NFL with 3.83 yards per carry. That means they are not quite as good a rushing team as their No. 10 overall ranking would suggest. The big question for the Chargers has centered on running back Austin Ekeler. He’s eligible to return from injured reserve, but as of Friday evening had yet to be activated. Ekeler had 47 carries for 236 yards in four games before getting hurt. EDGE: Even.
When the Chargers pass: The future is bright for rookie quarterback Justin Herbert. His numbers – 238 of 350 (68%), 2,699 yards (7.7 yards per attempt), 22 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 104.7 passer rating – are stellar for any quarterback, let alone a rookie. He is on pace to set NFL records for a rookie quarterback in completions, attempts, completion percentage, passing yards and passing touchdowns. Herbert isn’t afraid to throw the ball into tight windows, trusting that his receivers will make plays. Keenan Allen is Los Angeles’ top threat. He’s one of the more precise route runners in the NFL. Tight end Hunter Henry also poses a problem for a Bills defense that has struggled at times this year to cover that position. EDGE: Chargers.
The Buffalo Bills’ star receiver was in the dentist’s chair getting a root canal when he learned something new. “Boom,” Diggs said. “Cleat idea.”
Special teams: Rookie kicker Tyler Bass earned the trust of Bills Mafia by burying three field goals of 50-plus yards in the first half of the Week 10 loss to Arizona. With Bass and return man Andre Roberts having a strong season, the Bills have a big edge here. The Chargers have been a disaster on special teams, currently dead last in Football Outsiders’ rankings. They’ve been called for numerous penalties and had three punts blocked in the last five games. Things have gotten so bad that the Chargers reassigned special teams coordinator George Stewart on Wednesday. EDGE: Bills.
Hot read: Cody Ford's injury hurts, but Bills' O-line can overcome loss
Coaching: It’s a matchup of the Bills’ last two head coaches. Anthony Lynn worked one game as the Bills’ interim head coach at the end of the 2016 season after Rex Ryan was canned. Lynn is a good football coach and a better man. His team plays hard, although it has yet to find a way to pull out close games. Nine of the Chargers’ 10 games have been decided by less than eight points (one possession). McDermott's team has the benefit of extra rest coming out of the bye. The Bills are 3-0 in that situation in his first three years. EDGE: Bills.
Prediction: Bills 30, Chargers 21
