Welcome to the Bills Mailbag. Let’s get right into your questions …
bk asks: How much money has Tremaine Edmunds lost by his performance this year and is Ed Oliver moving toward being considered a bust?
Jay: In my midterm report card for the Bills that published Friday, I wrote that Edmunds might be playing himself out of the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. The Bills will have to make that decision in the offseason. If his performance doesn’t get a lot better over the second half of the season, it won’t be easy. It’s impossible to know with any certainty just how much Edmunds’ shoulder injury is impacting his performance, but the fact remains he’s just not making that many game-changing plays – which is exactly what’s expected of a first-round draft pick. Edmunds is second on the Bills with 52 tackles, but has just one tackle for loss and one pass defensed. No interceptions. No quarterback hits. No forced fumbles or recoveries. That’s really bad.
As for Oliver, it’s too early to call him a bust. It’s not too early, though, to question whether a top-10 draft pick should be doing more. Sacks should never be used solely to make determinations on a player, but Oliver has just one in the first half of the season. Nobody should be satisfied with that number. It’s true that a defensive tackle in McDermott’s defense can play a strong game with minimal statistical production. There have been times Oliver has done that. He’s tough to stop one on one. Even with that being true, it’s not unfair to expect more from him. The same goes for Edmunds.
@LordPegula asks: Should Bills consider a position switch for Edmunds?
Jay: No. Former Bills linebacker Lorenzo Alexander said recently that the two every-down linebackers in Buffalo’s defense – Edmunds and Matt Milano – play very similar roles. If that’s the case, other than calling the defense, there isn’t any reason to believe Edmunds’ play would be that much different if he were called an outside linebacker, not a middle linebacker.
@WestphalDavid asks: Matt Milano ... think they shut him down for the season? And if so, do they give him a new deal going forward?
@BigBeefyBills asks: Is Milano headed toward surgery?
Jay: I think all options are on the table right now. Coach Sean McDermott had this to say about Milano on Friday:
“We’ve been trying to figure out the best approach – figuring out the injury and how the injury affects the player,” McDermott said. “Then trying to do the best thing for the player and then the best thing for the team as well. … We’ll see how things unfold moving forward. It’s always great having players that want to play, but you have to be able to execute, as well. That’s the delicate balance that we’re always trying to find. And no one has a crystal ball – as good as our medical staff is – there’s no crystal ball to be able to exactly pinpoint where things are going to be.”
It would not be a surprise to see the Bills shut Milano down at least through their bye week, which comes after next Sunday’s game at Arizona, in an effort to give him more time to heal.
Adam Jacobs asks: What position is needed most to fix the defense?
Jay: It’s been clear since the beginning of the season that Star Lotulelei’s role as a run-stuffing, one-technique defensive tackle makes life easier for everyone else. The Bills haven’t been able to adequately replace Lotulelei, so I’d pick that.
Sean Thomas asks: Are the Bills figured out after eight games, or can they still find a way to have a high-powered offense again?
Jay: They’re not figured out. If Gabriel Davis makes a catch last week, they score 28 points against a decent New England defense. That’s an acceptable total. The Bills need to continue to run the ball well. That doesn’t mean every game will follow the script against the Patriots – it’s not always going to be that windy – but an impactful run game will take some of the pressure off Josh Allen. The Bills’ quarterback is getting better at taking what defenses give him. The more Allen can prove he can move the offense and score points methodically, the better his chances of defenses cheating up, which could in turn lead to a return of the deep passing offense that was so explosive in the first quarter of the season. The next two games, against Seattle and Arizona, are against defenses that give up a ton through the air. Allen and Co. will have an opportunity to get right.
Joe asks: Why don’t they like A.J. Epenesa?
Jay: It’s too soon to say they don’t like him. One thing holding Epenesa back right now is the fact that he doesn’t play special teams. That leads to Darryl Johnson Jr. being active over Epenesa at the moment – although Johnson might miss this week’s game because of a knee injury. Rookies develop at different speeds, and unfortunately, Epenesa has been slower than fans would like in that regard. With Trent Murphy in the final year of his contract, though, and what I would consider to be unlikely to return next year, Epenesa is still a big part of the team’s future.
Adam Jacobs asks: When is Brandon Beane getting his extension to match Sean McDermott’s?
Jay: At this point, it seems like owners Terry and Kim Pegula might be wise to wait until after the season to get a clearer picture of what the NFL’s revenue stream is going to look like next year. There is not a terrible rush to get anything done with Beane, since he’s under contract at least through next season. Sometime this offseason would be fine.
Mike Cunningham asks: If the Bills were to host a playoff game, would it be possible to have it in Pittsburgh or Cleveland so fans could attend?
Jay: I like that you’re thinking outside the box, Mike, but no, that’s not a possibility.
Ed Helinski asks: What’s your take on Ryan Bates’ role with the Bills? He looked good when briefly filling in for Mitch Morse. Is he too valuable as a versatile backup?
Jay: Bates is the type of offensive lineman Brian Daboll and Sean McDermott love. His ability to play multiple positions makes him valuable, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard of a player being too valuable. I could see Bates developing into a starter here in future seasons.
Caleb asks: What happens at tight end this week with Dawson Knox coming back? Knox hasn’t been great this year. Do you think he automatically gets that starting role back?
Jay: No, I don’t think he automatically gets the starting role back, particularly because he is still dealing with a calf injury that had kept him out of the lineup before he landed on the league’s reserve/Covid-19 list. Knox was still limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable, so even if he does play, I’d expect Tyler Kroft to get a fair amount of playing time, too. If Kroft performs well, I see that as being an open competition moving forward. To your point, Caleb, Knox hasn’t done anything to demand that he returns to the lineup when he’s 100%.
Ernest Swanson asks: Are Bills players required to get a flu shot?
Jay: They are not required – I’m not sure that any place of employment can legally require an immunization – but it is strongly encouraged. So much so, in fact, that they are offered at the team facility.
mlm asks: How will they cover D.K. Metcalf?
Jay: Sean McDermott hasn’t told me the game plan, but my (somewhat educated) guess would be with Tre’Davious White and a whole lot of hope. The Bills haven’t always used White to match up exclusively against a specific receiver, but this seems like a good game to do it – Metcalf against Levi Wallace is a clear mismatch. Of course, even if White can contain Metcalf, the Bills face the question of what to do about Seahawks slot receiver Tyler Lockett.
Paul Catalano asks: Your opinion on why the Bills stayed still at the trade deadline – cap reasons, asking price too high for guys or just no one out there they liked?
John Jarzynski asks: Are you at all surprised that Brandon Beane did not try to shore up his defense at trade deadline?
Jay: I think it’s a combination of all three, Paul. The Bills don’t have a lot of cap space right now – a little less than $5 million, which ranks as the eighth least in the NFL – so making a move for a high-priced veteran would have required a corresponding move that might not have been possible. The asking price also was reportedly an issue around the league, not specifically when it came to the Bills. As much as it would have been nice to see Beane be aggressive, the Bills’ GM is right not to mortgage the future. Keep in mind, too, that the team did add cornerback Daryl Worley and linebacker Darron Lee to the practice squad recently. Those moves aren’t splashy, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see both players on the field for the Bills at some point in the second half of the season.
To John’s question, I am somewhat surprised, although given the lack of movement around the league as a whole, can’t say that I am shocked. Don’t forget that trades aren’t the only way rosters can be changed right now. Perhaps a team makes a move to release a veteran to get a younger player more playing time, or the Bills try to pluck someone off a practice squad. Changes could still be coming defensively, especially if the problems on that side of the ball persist.
Scott D. Outterson asks: When do we start questioning the decision to use draft picks on a kicker and third-string quarterback instead of drafting some depth, specifically at linebacker?
Jay: You’re free to question it now. I don’t entirely disagree, although I will point out that Tyler Bass did beat out Stephen Hauschka (who is currently unemployed) and did help the Bills beat the Jets – albeit with some shaky moments sprinkled in. Bass has also been a help to the Bills’ kickoff unit, which ranks seventh in the league in average return yards allowed (18.7). He might make some fans nervous, but it’s justifiable to use a draft pick on him in my mind. As for Jake Fromm, obviously he’s not going to provide any on-field help this year, unless things really go sideways with Josh Allen and Matt Barkley ahead of him on the depth chart. You have to take a long-term view of the Fromm selection to justify it. If he takes over as the backup to Allen next season – Barkley is in the final year of his contract – it’s not a bad pick. Would a linebacker in the fifth round who could contribute this year be a better pick? An argument for that can be made.
Rick McGuire asks: With his history of concussions, do you think the Bills will consider moving on from Mitch Morse next season and look for a younger center in next year's draft, or is Morse their guy? Mitch is an awesome center, but those concussions have to be a concern for both him and the Bills.
Jay: They absolutely could consider moving on from him. Doing so would mean $5.5 million in dead money against the 2021 salary cap if Morse was cut before June 1, but the team would save $4.875 million. If he were cut after June 1, the savings would be $7.625 million next year, with Morse counting $2.75 million against the cap in both 2021 and 2022. It was a good sign that Morse was working out with athletic trainers on the sideline this past week. Hopefully, that means that he’s close to returning to 100%. As Rick stated, though, five documented concussions in the NFL is a major concern for Morse, and that has nothing to do with his impact on the field for the Bills. Rather, you worry about his long-term health and quality of life after football. If Morse can get back in the lineup and finish out this season, I would expect he’s on the team next year, as well. If the Bills cut him after 2021, they would be on the hook for just $2.75 million and would save $8.5 million against the 2022 salary cap – when Allen’s contract takes a big jump in pay.
Robert Goodwin asks: Why do they call a safety a safety? What’s safe about it? What’s the history of the name?
Jay: The name refers to the position being the last line of defense. Typically, safeties are the last players on a defense to protect the end zone. That’s especially true of the free safety. For what it’s worth, the Bills don’t differentiate between free and strong safety (the player who lines up on the side of the offensive tight end) – Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer are interchangeable. Historically, the position was known as “safetyman,” and before that it was called the defensive fullback and even before that, a goaltender.
Louis Stromberg asks: Thank God for the mailbag, Jay. The Bills’ game Sunday will be a much-needed break from the news. In honor of such, please rank the following breaks: "The Breakfast Club," windbreakers, "Breaking Bad," "Achy Breaky Heart," "Daybreak." Thanks and go Bills!
Jay: 5. "Achy Breaky Heart." In a way, so bad, it’s good. 4. "Breaking Bad." Never saw it. Probably ranked too low. Sorry. 3. Windbreakers. Remember those Surf Style ones? Those were boss. 2. "The Breakfast Club." 1. "Daybreak." I’m assuming you mean Western New York’s No. 1-ranked morning show, anchored by the beautiful and talented Melissa Holmes, right? Of course you do. An easy choice for No. 1. Thanks for all the questions this week!
