Eight games is not a small sample size in the NFL.
With half the season over, it was interesting to hear Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott say this week that his team is still in the process of forming its identity.
“I think we're working on it, to be very forthcoming,” he said. “I think that's also exciting because I think there's better football yet to be coached and played and maybe it's because the short run-up to the start (of the season), honestly. But we do have some new pieces and so like every team, there's been attrition through some injuries and challenges and whatnot, but I think we're still figuring out our true identity and maybe how good we can be as a football team, because I feel like there's still more out there for us.”
The Bills accomplished plenty in the first half. At 6-2, they are firmly in control of the AFC East race. Consider this: If the Bills get to nine wins, with one of them coming over the Dolphins in Week 17, Miami would have to go 6-2 in its other eight games (not including the season finale against Buffalo) to overtake the Bills for the AFC East championship. That’s a big ask.
So the Bills have gotten off to the start they needed in 2020. Their only losses are to the two teams that played for the AFC championship last year.
“There's certainly things we've done well. Winning six games doesn't come easy, so you're doing a lot of things well,” McDermott said, “and there's some things certainly we can improve on. I like how we developed in terms of offensively with the passing game early and now the run game and I think that bodes well moving forward. On defense, I like how our defensive line is doing some things up front of late with the quarterback and the rush element. And our special teams, overall, I think they've continued to play fast and physical and fundamentally sound."
Things won’t be any easier in the second half. Buffalo’s remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .579, which gives them the fourth-toughest schedule the rest of the way. Before the second half of the season starts, though, let’s close the books on the first half with The Buffalo News’ mid-term, position-by-position report card:
Quarterbacks: B
It’s been all Josh Allen this season, with Matt Barkley’s only appearance coming in mop-up duty of a blowout loss to the Titans in Week 5. Allen’s first quarter of the season earned an easy ‘A’ grade – he was an early MVP candidate – but he’s regressed to a ‘C’ over the last four weeks. Average those out, and you arrive at a deserved ‘B’ grade. Allen threw for 12 touchdowns and just one interception in the first four games, but that ratio has dropped to 4-4 over the last four. Overall, he’s made big strides with his accuracy – completing 67.1% of his passes this season – and often times he has been the Bills’ best player, which is exactly what you need your quarterback to be.
Wide receivers: A
Stefon Diggs has been everything the Bills hoped he would be, and more. Diggs ranks second in the NFL in both catches (54) and yards (695). He’s on pace to set a single-season franchise record in receiving yardage, currently held by Eric Moulds with 1,368 in 1998. Diggs’ addition has also made life easier for slot receiver Cole Beasley, who has 41 catches for 494 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s slightly off the pace for his first career 1,000-yard season, and might break his career high of 75 catches, which he set in 2016 with Dallas. The big disappointment for the Bills at receiver has been John Brown, but that’s because a knee injury has left him either unavailable or at far less than 100% for the last four weeks. Over that time, he has just one catch for 21 yards in two games. Rookie receiver Gabriel Davis was a pleasant surprise over the first half, with 15 catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns. Davis, though, did let a potential touchdown go through his hands last week against New England.
Running backs: D
Recency bias might say this is a low grade, but one good game for Devin Singletary and Zack Moss against the Patriots in Week 8 isn’t enough to cover up what has been a tough first half for each. Moss has somewhat of an excuse, given that he missed three games with a toe injury. His last six quarters – the second half against the Jets and the game against New England – have been his best. Singletary isn’t totally to blame for what have been underwhelming numbers to this point (93 carries, 385 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, one touchdown). Far too often, he’s been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage. Nevertheless, more was expected of him to this point. T.J. Yeldon has been a healthy inactive when Moss is in the lineup. Fourth running back Taiwan Jones is a key member of special teams.
Tight ends: D+
Perhaps the biggest disappointment this season thus far has been second-year veteran Dawson Knox. A chic pick as a “breakout candidate” before the season, Moss has been slowed by a concussion, a calf injury and, most recently, a stint on the league’s reserve/Covid-19 list. As a result of all that, Knox has just six catches for 93 yards. No. 2 tight end Tyler Kroft has been an important part of the roster as a result. With 11 catches for 118 yards and two touchdowns, Kroft has stepped up in a time of need.
Offensive line: B-
Individually, members of the line have graded out well. Collectively, not as much. The Bills are 22nd in analytics website Football Outsiders’ rankings of offensive lines around the league. The team is averaging 4.09 adjusted line yards, which is a formula that takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the line. The pass blocking has been better, ranking 11th in the league. Individually, left tackle Dion Dawkins and right tackle Daryl Williams both are in the top 20 of Pro Football Focus’ rankings of offensive tackles. Williams has been one of General Manager Brandon Beane’s best moves in free agency. Playing on a one-year contract, he’s given up just one sack on 331 pass-blocking snaps. Dawkins, meanwhile, has lived up to the big-money contract extension he signed before the start of the regular season. He has been penalized just once this season. The story at guard has been much different. Former starter Quinton Spain was benched, then released. Cody Ford and Brian Winters have combined to give up 31 total pressures. Ike Boettger had a rough game against the Jets, but bounced back nicely against the Patriots with Ford out of the lineup.
Defensive line: C
The run defense (which factors in linebacker play) ranks 22nd in Football Outsiders’ grading of defensive lines, with opposing running backs gaining 4.64 adjusted line yards. It’s easy to point to the absence of one-technique defensive tackle Star Lotulelei as a big reason for that. Harrison Phillips’ performance coming off an ACL tear last year has predictably been negatively impacted. The lack of a true, run-stuffing defensive tackle is an ongoing issue that has impacted every level of the defense. Given that the Bills invest more in the defensive line than any other team, it’s safe to say they have underperformed up front. Ed Oliver’s performance has been uneven at times, Trent Murphy was benched and hasn’t come close to living up to his salary and A.J. Epenesa can barely get on the field as a second-round draft pick. It’s telling that Justin Zimmer, who started the season on the practice squad, has turned in some of the team’s best performances up front.
Linebackers: F
What a mess here. Matt Milano has struggled through injuries all season – first to his hamstring and currently to his pectoral. The Bills would be better off shutting Milano down until he’s fully healthy – what he’s giving them on a part-time basis right now isn’t good enough. Likewise, a shoulder injury has left Tremaine Edmunds looking like a shell of himself at times. Edmunds seems to be playing his way out of the team picking up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract. Here’s to hoping A.J. Klein doesn’t have social media – he’s been a whipping boy among fans for his performance this season.
Secondary: C
The Bills have just two interceptions from their secondary – by cornerbacks Levi Wallace and rookie seventh-round draft pick Dane Jackson. The second cornerback spot opposite Tre’Davious White has been a problem area all season. The addition of veteran Josh Norman has been a total bust. A recurring hamstring injury has kept Norman off the field most of the year. Nickel cornerback Taron Johnson has been picked on time and again. According to PFF, Johnson has been targeted 45 times, giving up 36 catches for 392 yards, the most among slot cornerbacks.
Special teams: B+
It’s been a roller coaster with rookie kicker Tyler Bass, especially against the Jets in Week 7. Punter Corey Bojorquez has been solid, with a net average of 42.7 yards. Returner Andre Roberts has generally made good decisions on when to attempt a return, although he has been unable to take one back to the end zone. Tyler Matakevich made one of the low-key best plays of the season when he recovered an onside kick attempt against New England.
