Jim Kubiak has been analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for BNBlitz.com. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League, and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks. He recently was named head coach at Hilbert College.
Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a “Doing Your Job” grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback’s responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
Overview
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was inconsistent against the New York Jets on Sunday, playing at times with the precision of a sharp shooter, while at one point in the third quarter having seven consecutive incompletions over three offensive drives.
It wasn’t Allen’s efficiency passing the football that was this game’s highlight, although his 24 completions on 45 attempts and two touchdown passes looked stellar compared to Jets rookie Zach Wilson’s 35% completion percentage. The highlights were Allen’s key rushes for big plays that broke the back of the stingy Jets defense and his ability to quietly keep himself composed and patient, not allowing himself to make mistakes or turnovers.
Allen’s leadership, his ability to protect the football and his legs did the most damage to the Jets, who, despite the lopsided statistics, played well and kept the score close for most of the game.
Allen finished with an overall QB Performance Grade of 90.25%.
The Bills dominated in every statistical category as they possessed the football for 37 minutes and ran 79 plays. The Jets held the ball for just 23 minutes and ran 46 plays. The Jets had just 53 yards of total offense in comparison to 424 yards for the Bills. Two specific statistics told the story: Allen’s five rushes for 63 yards and Buffalo's nine total sacks.
This was a game that the Bills had to win, and they took care of their business and created momentum heading into their much-anticipated wild-card playoff game against the New England Patriots.
First quarter
Play selection: 20 plays – 10 passes, 10 runs.
Allen: 7 of 10 passing for 79 yards, one touchdown pass. No carries.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Bills, 10-0.
Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll attacked early with balance, calling 10 passing plays and 10 running plays in the first quarter. Allen completed 7 of his 10 attempts and Devin Singletary carried the football eight times.
This strategy seemed to pay off. The Bills scored on their first possession with this third-and-goal scramble by Allen as he found Stefon Diggs rerouting himself to the front pylon.
Here, on a play from the 10-yard line, Allen demonstrated his incredible strength as he stepped up into the pocket to avoid the penetration from the Jets’ four-man pass rush. Allen stiff-armed Quinnen Williams and then made an accurate throw with Jets linebacker Quincy Williams tackling him. This was an astonishing play by Allen to escape and find Diggs while making an accurate throw after contact. Very few quarterbacks have this strength. Diggs did a super job of keeping his right foot on the turf.
The Bills came right back on their second series to score again with a 41-yard field goal that increased the lead to 10-0. It was a combination of bottom up reads by Allen that led to quick throws, and his ability to move outside the pocket when things broke down that made the difference.
Here was a third-and-5 snag route by Diggs that kept this drive alive.
The Jets dialed up a very difficult and confusing defensive look. They bluffed the potential seven-man blitz and initially rushed four defenders, three linemen and safety Michael Carter II. The Jets overloaded Allen's right side and then brought Carter off the edge on the left. Allen felt the pressure and wisely attacked the voided area from where Carter had blitzed. This smart decision, a bottom up style of progression, kept this drive alive. The decisive throw gave Diggs time to catch and plunge forward for the first down.
Cam Lewis blocked a punt to set the Bills up for the next offensive possession.
Second quarter
Play selection: 21 plays – 16 passes, five runs.
Allen: 9 of 16 passing for 78 yards. One carry for 8 yards.
Performance grade: 95%.
Score: Bills, 13-7.
The Bills’ third offensive possession started on the Jets’ 35-yard line, but Allen and the Bills were not able to get any points. Coach Sean McDermott elected to go for it on fourth-and-5 from the 30-yard line, rather than attempt a long field goal into the wind. Allen failed to convert on a locked-hitch to Gabriel Davis and the Bills turned the ball over on downs.
From this point in the second quarter, the Bills went three-and-out on three possessions. Allen missed a couple throws, going 3 of 6 on these drives, while Singletary’s rush attempts were stuffed. Fortunately for Buffalo's offense, their defense stifled a Jets offense that generated only four first downs in the game and converted 1 of 14 on third down.
The Bills offense took over on their seventh offensive possession with 1:39 remaining in the half and proceeded to storm down the field for a last-second field goal that increased their halftime lead to 13-7.
It was this play, as Allen scrambled to his right with no timeouts remaining, that illustrated just how savvy he can be. Allen realized in that split second that if he were tackled in bounds, another 10 seconds would have run off the clock. He attracted defenders to himself, opening a pitch lane for him to flip the ball to Dawson Knox.
Consider what would have happened if Allen did not flip the ball to Knox. He would have achieved a first down, but the game clock would have run down from 17 seconds to less than 10 seconds before the Bills would have been able to kill the ball. The result of this quick-witted play was three shots at the end zone, a pass interference call, and a chip shot field goal with 4 seconds remaining. The Bills nearly scored on throws to both Davis and Diggs.
Third quarter
Play selection: 19 plays – 13 passes, five runs.
Allen: 3 of 13 passing for 39 yards. One carry for 15 yards.
Performance grade: 66%.
Score: Bills, 13-10.
The Bills’ blunderous third quarter was filled with offensive inefficiencies that appeared to be miscommunications between Allen and his receivers. Allen missed throws on third-and-10, third-and-13, third-and-4, and third-and-14. These mostly third-and-long plays have a lower percentage of conversion, but they were opportunities that Buffalo's offense couldn’t connect on. The inability to move the ball in the third quarter resulted in four stalled offensive drives, no points and a muffed punt, which allowed the Jets to capitalize with great field position and a field goal. This shrunk the Bills' lead to 13-10.
Allen's third quarter performance grade was a mere 66%, due primarily to missed throws that appeared to visibly frustrate him.
Fourth quarter
Play selection (with Allen in the game): 14 plays – six passes, eight runs
Allen: 5 of 6 passing for 43 yards, one passing touchdown. Three carries for 40 yards.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Bills, 27-10.
Daboll did a terrific job of getting his quarterback and the offense back on track with naked bootleg play-action passes. Daboll recognized Allen was struggling, and rather than continue to put Allen in those positions and risk a turnover, he gave Allen a two-way-go on the perimeter with naked bootleg action. This put Allen in run-pass opportunities wide and outside the pocket, and Allen did a fantastic job with huge runs like this.
Here, Daboll had Allen play-action fake to the right and boot left. Allen had Diggs and Jake Kumerow short and underneath with Knox running a deep corner. Allen, again using his quick wits, faked as though he was going to flip the ball to Diggs or Kumerow. This froze the New York's defense and Allen burst down the field for a 32-yard gain to the Jets’ 20-yard line. This was the play of the game, as the Jets had bottled Allen up for most of the second half. This play gave the Bills’ offense confidence and momentum. The Bills scored three plays later.
Give credit to Daboll for adjusting. He knowingly gave Allen a play that was easier to create with, and the result was this game-ripping run. Following this score, the Bills jumped out to a seemingly insurmountable 20-10 lead.
Daboll again opened the final drive of the game with another play-action naked bootleg pass.
From the video, notice that Daboll used Tommy Doyle as a sixth offensive lineman and had Reggie Gilliam in the game as a fullback. This was a “heavy” regular personnel grouping, with the only receivers being Davis and Diggs.
Daboll recognized that his heavy personnel and a 10-point lead would indicate that he was running the ball on first-and-10. This was not the case, as the entire play call was designed to draw the defense in to stop the run while trying to sneak Davis down the field behind the out-of-position defenders.
Allen sold the run first and then got excellent depth as he attacked the perimeter. The Jets defense, like a school of hungry piranhas, swarmed to the fake and left themselves immediately vulnerable down the field. Credit Daboll with another great bootleg concept to start the Bills’ drive, giving Allen options to create with his legs or to complete easier throws to open receivers.
This play was again the catalyst for the final Bills score and sealed a second AFC East championship.
Conclusion
Allen’s great play action on two drive starts in the fourth quarter allowed Buffalo's offense to overcome a poorly played third quarter. The Bills dominated the Jets statistically, and yet the game was a three-point contest with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
Daboll’s decisions to utilize Allen in bootleg action on the two final drives resulted in huge offensive plays. I believe the Bills would have won this game 13-10 due to their dominating defense, but it was great to see Allen and the Bills overcome their inefficiencies on offense and get back on track late in the game.
Allen’s strength, his running capabilities, his wits and his ability to not make critical errors were the difference. It will be these same qualities that will be instrumental in making him the most dangerous offensive player on the field Saturday against the Patriots. He will need to weaponize his patience to protect himself from trying to do too much against a game plan that will be designed to challenge his discipline.
