Rest assured, Bills Mafia has been chewing nails since the Bills lost to Kansas City in the AFC title game last season. Not only have they played their way back to the postseason this year, they’ll take the field knowing that playoff home teams that fell in their conference title game the previous season are 44-8 straight up and 34-16-2 against the spread overall. That includes 26-3 straight up and 21-6-2 against the spread when coming off a win of six-plus points. And yes, we realize that six of the Bills' victories this season have come against teams that were using a backup quarterback.
As for New England, after their 7-0 win streak straight up and against the spread, the Patriots are just 1-3 straight up and against the spread in their last four while nearly mirroring their dismal 1-4 start to begin the season.
The Pats were outgained by 406 net yards against the five playoff teams on their schedule this season, while the Bills out-statted six playoff teams by 325 net yards.
Here's the clincher: NFL playoff home favorites that were in the playoffs the previous season are 15-3 straight up and 14-5 against the spread since 1996 when facing an opponent coming off a loss, including 6-0 against the spread when coming off a loss of more than eight points. (The Patriots lost to Miami by nine last Sunday.)
Prediction: Bills over Patriots by 13.
Marc Lawrence previews the NFL from a Vegas perspective. You can follow him online at PlaybookSports.com or @MarcLawrence.
