Here’s what we’re asking ourselves after the Buffalo Bills’ 31-14 victory over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday:
Are the Bills back on a roll after winning by 17?
We’re not sure, and it doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is they won. It's hard to make any long-range declarations in this unpredictable, up-and-down season.
Was it an impressive win? Not especially. Let’s call it a decent win. The Bills were dealing with a significant handicap with the loss of left tackle Dion Dawkins to a positive Covid-19 test. So the offense wasn’t able to pick up where it left off in the second half of the game in Tampa last week, when it marched up and down the field. Presuming Dawkins comes back, there is no reason the offense shouldn’t make amends for its disappointing performance in the first meeting with the Patriots.
Do the Bills have a new WR2?
Yes. Probably the most significant development from the game is receiver Gabriel Davis took over for injured starter Emmanuel Sanders and played great. Sanders has a knee injury, suffered in Tampa last week. He will be out again next week in New England. Sanders has enjoyed a fine season. He has 40 catches for 606 yards and four touchdowns.
But Davis could be considered an upgrade. He’s a bigger body, giving the receiving corps a little different dimension. He’s also a big asset in the red zone. He had seven TD catches as a rookie in 2020 and he has six this season. This doesn’t mean Sanders gets stuck on the bench when he comes back. Before Sunday, Sanders was playing 52 snaps a game and Davis 28. Let’s flip that, or at least make it 50-50.
How does this change the Bills’ playoff odds?
Despite all of the Bills’ inconsistency, the division title is theirs for the taking. Win at New England on Sunday, and they’re in position to repeat as division champions and host a playoff game. No excuses. The Bills would have the tiebreaker edge on the Pats by virtue of a better AFC East record. The Pats (9-5) lost to Miami in the season opener. New England, which lost at Indianapolis Saturday night, stands 3-1 in division, the same as the Bills.
If the playoffs started today, the Bills (8-6) would have the No. 7 seed and they would visit New England in the wild-card round. The Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) and the Colts (8-6) would be the wild-card teams with the sixth and fifth seeds, respectively.
The New York Times’ simulation calculator puts the Bills’ odds of making the playoffs at 70% and their odds to win out and win the division at 34%. That second figure is a little low from this perspective.
