When the Bills run: Buffalo currently ranks tied for seventh in the league in rushing yards per game. That’s encouraging, but even more so when considering it was Devin Singletary who handled much of the first two weeks and Zack Moss who stepped up against Washington. If those two can continue to be a 1-2 punch, it takes pressure off the rest of the offense. Houston’s run defense ranks 18th in the league. EDGE: Bills.
When the Bills pass: Bills quarterback Josh Allen could very well be in for another big day. Houston’s cornerback situation is not great. Houston is allowing 269.3 passing yards per game, which ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Texans play more Cover 2 than every team in the NFL except the Falcons. Despite that, Houston has given up 13 completions of 20-plus yards, which is sixth most in the league. Texans defensive coordinator Lovie Smith has sent blitzes on just 11.9% of the opponent’s offensive snaps, which is the league’s third-lowest rate. EDGE: Bills.
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When the Texans run: A team that starts four first- or second-round draft picks on the offensive line like the Texans do should not be as bad at running the football as they are. Houston ranks last in the NFL in expected points added on the ground, a metric that considers down, distance and field position when measuring the success of a team’s running game. A big part of the failures fall on the offensive line. Houston’s ball carriers are averaging just 0.8 yards per carry before contact. When they’re not hit early, Houston’s running backs aren’t making much happen. Phillip Lindsay has carried 20 times, with six of those runs not getting past the line of scrimmage. EDGE: Bills.
When the Texans pass: Houston receiver Brandin Cooks is off to a good start, averaging 107.3 receiving yards per game. His previous career high is 76.7 yards per game. Cooks leads the NFL in target share (37.6%), percentage of his team’s receptions (39.6%) and receiving yardage (46.9%). Rookie quarterback Davis Mills completed nine passes to Cooks for 112 yards last week in his first career start. It will be a different challenge for Mills on the road in a hostile atmosphere, especially considering Cooks is likely to get the Tre’Davious White treatment. EDGE: Bills.
Special teams: Bills coach Sean McDermott said this week Texans returner Andre Roberts should one day make the Hall of Fame. That’s a spicy take. Roberts, though, did a solid job the past two seasons here in Buffalo and the Bills have to be aware of him Sunday. He’s off to a tough start in Houston, averaging just 2.6 yards per punt return and losing a fumble. EDGE: Bills.
Coaching: The Bills are averaging 31.3 points per game and rank in the top five in points, passing yards and rushing yards allowed, so they’re playing dominant football. Expect that to continue, especially against a Houston team that passed over Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier for its head coaching job. That likely didn’t sit well in the Buffalo front office. Some fans tried to make a thing of Texans coach David Culley saying, “I’m going back there to whip their butts,” this week, as if they expected the team’s former quarterbacks coach to say he was going back to Buffalo to hand the Bills a gift-wrapped win. Culley’s comments were harmless … but wrong. The Bills are far and away the better team, and will be determined to show that. EDGE: Bills.
Prediction: Bills 42, Texans 17.
