Pac-12 basketball power ratings: Arizona on top, UCLA climbs after narrow loss to Marquette

The Pac-12’s non-conference record is steadily deteriorating, which isn’t a surprise given the uptick in competition but constitutes a mounting challenge nonetheless.

To date, the conference is 39-14 — a winning percentage of 73.5. That’s above the 70% mark that historically has translated to success with NCAA Tournament bids and seeds.

But with a slew of premium opponents looming, the 12 teams will be hard-pressed to keep their win rate on the high side of the threshold.

Results over the Thanksgiving holiday in several high-profile showdowns will be critical.

To the power ratings ...

1. Arizona (6-0)

Last week: 1

Results: beat Belmont 100-68, beat UT Arlington 101-56, beat Michigan State 74-68

Next up: vs. Colgate (Dec. 2)

Comment: The Wildcats have hit the 100-point mark three times and entered Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day tilt with No. 21 MSU averaging 99.6 points per game, third nationally behind Eastern Kentucky and Alabama. No other Pac-12 team is in the 90s.

2. UCLA (4-1)

Last week: 3

Results: lost to Marquette 71-69, beat Chaminade 76-48

Next up: vs. Gonzaga (Wednesday)

Comment: We count a two-point loss to Marquette on a neutral court (in Maui) as tantamount to a victory for Mick Cronin’s rebuilt roster. The Golden Eagles just beat Kansas and are one of the nation’s best.

3. Colorado (4-1)

Last week: 2

Results: beat Richmond 64-59, lost to Florida State 77-71

Next up: vs. Iona (Sunday)

Comment: If Florida State fares well in the ACC, the loss won’t undermine Colorado’s resume. If the Seminoles struggle, as they did last season, it could be problematic for CU.

4. Oregon (4-0)

Last week: 4

Results: beat Tennessee State 92-67, beat Florida A&M 67-54

Next up: vs. Santa Clara (Friday)

Comment: Beware the Broncos. That’s our only comment. Beware. The. Broncos.

5. USC (3-1)

Last week: 6

Results: beat Brown 81-70

Next up: vs. Seton Hall (Thursday)

Comment: The schedule gets vastly more difficult from Thanksgiving through Christmas with Seton Hall, Iowa (or Oklahoma), then Gonzaga and Auburn.

6. Arizona State (2-1)

Last week: 5

Results: DNP

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Next up: vs. Brigham Young (Thursday)

Comment: The schedule provided the Sun Devils with a full week to prepare for BYU, and they’ll need it: The Cougars beat San Diego State and are undefeated.

7. Utah (3-2)

Last week: 7

Results: lost to Houston 76-66, lost to St. John’s 91-82

Next up: at Saint Mary’s (Monday)

Comment: Two difficult games (SMC and BYU) remain in a fairly stout non-conference schedule. The Utes need to win at least one of the two to carry a quality victory into conference play. (Wake Forest doesn’t qualify.)

8. Washington (3-2)

Last week: 10

Results: beat Xavier 74-71, lost to San Diego State 100-97

Next up: vs. UC San Diego (Tuesday)

Comment: The three-point win over Xavier and three-point loss to SDSU constitute 80 minutes of quality play — and hope for a successful season — for a program in dire need of momentum.

9. Washington State (3-1)

Last week: 8

Results: lost to Mississippi State 76-64, beat Rhode Island 78-57

Next up: vs. Utah Tech (Friday)

Comment: If the Cougars are anything worse than 8-3 when non-conference play concludes, something has gone very, very wrong.

10. Stanford (3-1)

Last week: 9

Results: beat Eastern Washington 95-70

Next up: vs. Arkansas (Wednesday)

Comment: Stanford has woefully underperformed against power conference opponents in recent years. Will this season be any different? We’ll know by the end of the week.

11. Oregon State (3-1)

Last week: 11

Results: lost to Nebraska 84-63

Next up: vs. Baylor (Wednesday)

Comment: We calculated what a 21-point loss to Nebraska translates to against Baylor, and it’s not pretty.

12. Cal (2-3)

Last week: 12

Results: lost to UTEP 75-72

Next up: vs. Tulane (Wednesday)

Comment: The rebuilding Bears are responsible for 21% of the Pac-12 losses thus far. Look for the scale to continue to tilt in that direction.