Pac-12 power ratings: Should UCLA fire Chip Kelly? That’s asking the wrong question

The coaching carousel, motionless across the Pac-12 footprint during the regular season, began to spin Saturday morning when Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith accepted an offer from Michigan State.

Will the next turn come in Westwood? (It doesn’t look like it, according to the L.A. Times and multiple other outlets).

UCLA coach Chip Kelly’s job security has been the subject of intense speculation following a listless loss to Cal, which followed (by two weeks) a dreadful performance against Arizona State. However, a decisive victory at USC in between those defeats seemingly complicates the situation.

Kelly’s tenure started poorly in 2018 but gained steam following the pandemic. However, with the Bruins on the brink of a move to the Big Ten, momentum is lost.

While Kelly has posted a 24-13 overall record over the past three years, his success leans into a slew of second-tier victories inside and outside conference play.

This fall, for example, the Bruins beat just two teams with winning records: Coastal Carolina and USC.

It’s tough to make the case the program is well-positioned for success in the Big Ten.

And Kelly’s contract, revised last winter, leaves the school with relatively modest buyout exposure. According to the L.A. Times, Kelly would “receive $8.5 million if he’s dismissed before December 2023 and $4.27 million if he is terminated before December 2024.”

But in our view, the central question isn’t whether the Bruins should terminate Kelly. It’s whether they have better options available and willing.

If you fire a coach following his third consecutive winning season … a coach who has beaten USC twice in the past three years … a coach who represents the program well and is likely to maintain a reasonable standard of success … you cannot end up with someone worse.

The Bruins have never paid top dollar, despite the cost of living in L.A., and there’s no indication they plan to start now.

It’s a basketball school with significant academic standards that isn’t fully committed to football the way USC, Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan are fully committed to football.

The move into the Big Ten exerts pressure on both ends of UCLA’s risk-reward calculation with Kelly: Making no change is far better than making the wrong change.

To the power ratings …

1. Oregon (11-1/8-1)

Last week: 2

Result: beat Oregon State 31-7

Next up: vs. Washington in Pac-12 championship (Friday)

Comment: To best explain Oregon’s placement above Washington in the final power ratings of 2023, the Hotline would like to direct your attention to the point differential in conference games. The Ducks outscored their nine opponents by 225 points; the Huskies, by just 76. In our view, that more than offsets UW’s narrow head-to-head victory at home all those weeks ago.

2. Washington (12-0/9-0)

Last week: 1

Result: beat Washington State 24-21

Next up: vs. Oregon in Pac-12 championship (Friday)

Comment: We figured the defense would improve more than the offense over the course of the season given the starting points for each unit. We did not expect the defense to carry UW across the finish line, while Michael Penix and Co. struggled to score more than a few touchdowns per game.

3. Arizona (9-3/7-2)

Last week: 3

Result: won at Arizona State 59-23

Next up: TBD (bowl game)

Comment: The Wildcats appeared to have thoroughly enjoyed the low-pressure ride to nine wins, which was smart. Even if every integral player and coach returns in 2024, the vibe will be different — not because of the Big 12 move but because of enhanced attention and expectations.

4. Oregon State (8-4/5-4)

Last week: 4

Result: lost to Oregon 31-7

Next up: TBD (bowl game)

Comment: Just nine days ago, the Beavers were taking the field against Washington with their sights on a conference title. Three losses later — that’s two games and one coach — they’re reeling. But that’s life on the margins for programs that need so much to go right so often.

5. Utah (8-4/5-4)

Last week: 6

Result: beat Colorado 23-17

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Next up: TBD (bowl game)

Comment: It wasn’t long ago that eight wins would have constituted a perfectly respectable year for the Utes. Now, it takes a surreal string of injuries to create an 8-4 reality. In Salt Lake City, the ceiling has become the floor.

6. UCLA (7-5/4-5)

Last week: 5

Result: lost to Cal 33-7

Next up: TBD (bowl game)

Comment: The Bruins recorded six wins over Football Bowl Subdivision opponents this season. The ledger: Coastal Carolina (7-5), USC (7-5), Washington State (5-7), San Diego State (4-8), Colorado (4-8) and Stanford (3-9). That, folks, is a bone with no meat.

7. USC (7-5/5-4)

Last week: 7

Result: Did not play

Next up: TBD (bowl game)

Comment: Plenty of names being tossed about for the defensive coordinator position, but let’s offer a caveat: It doesn’t matter who Lincoln Riley hires for the position (Jim Leonhard, Danny Gonzales … Nick Saban) if Lincoln Riley doesn’t make defense and physicality priorities within the program’s culture.

8. Cal (6-6/4-5)

Last week: 8

Result: won at UCLA 33-7

Next up: TBD (bowl game)

Comment: We’re reminded of the end of 2019, when the Bears won their final three games and carried loads of momentum into the offseason (it was soon derailed by the pandemic). But coach Justin Wilcox must keep tailback Jaydn Ott out of the portal and playcaller Jake Spavital off the market.

9. Washington State (5-7/2-7)

Last week: 9

Result: lost at Washington 24-21

Next up: season complete

Comment: And so the streak of consecutive bowl appearances (in non-COVID years) ends at seven. Which game kept the Cougars from making it eight in a row? You could point to the three-point loss at Cal or perhaps the three-point loss at Washington. But we would select the three-point home loss to Stanford, which remains inexcusable to this day.

10. Arizona State (3-9/2-7)

Last week: 10

Result: lost to Arizona 59-23

Next up: season complete

Comment: The 36-point losses to Oregon and Arizona at the bitter end should not fully obscure what was, for 10 weeks, an impressive showing under brutal circumstances. At the same time, let’s not sugarcoat the challenge: Kenny Dillingham has a difficult rebuild ahead, even if the NCAA sanctions are soon to come and modest in nature.

11. Stanford (3-9/2-7)

Last week: 11

Result: lost to Notre Dame 56-23

Next up: season complete

Comment: According to the best measure of defensive efficiency, yards-per-play allowed, the Cardinal had the third-worst unit in the Power Five — outdone only by Baylor and Cincinnati. That won’t be an easy fix for coach Troy Taylor, given his restricted use of the transfer portal.

12. Colorado (4-8/1-8)

Last week: 12

Result: lost to Utah 23-17

Next up: season complete

Comment: The more things change, the more they remain the same: Colorado’s stay in the Pac-12 ends in exactly the same place — last — where it began back in 2011.