Cats claw upward: A Tucson reporter's handicapping of the '23-'24 Pac-12 men's basketball race

After picking Arizona to finish in a fourth-place tie before the Wildcats ran away with the Pac-12 regular-season title in 2021-22, media correctly predicted last season that Arizona would finish second behind UCLA (though USC tied the Wildcats).

What now? The Bruins lost four starters — yes, Jaime Jaquez and Tyger Campbell are finally gone — while UA, USC, Oregon and Colorado all have rosters suggesting they could win it this time.

The Pac-12 will release the results of its official 2023-24 poll on Wednesday, at the conference’s men’s basketball media day in Las Vegas, after asking media who regularly cover the league to vote.

Here’s the ballot we submitted, with reasons why:

1. Arizona

Last season: 28-7 overall; 14-6 Pac-12 (tie-2nd), lost to Princeton in NCAA Tournament first round

Tommy Lloyd may not have quite the top-shelf talent he had in his first two seasons as the Wildcats’ head coach, but he has much more depth and versatility. UA can go 10 or 11 players deep, with a big or smaller lineup, potentially reducing the wear-and-tear that hurt them late last season. The key is building chemistry on a team with seven newcomers, especially in how high-volume scorer Caleb Love will fit in after an inefficient season at North Carolina.

2. USC

Last season: 22-11 overall; 14-6 Pac-12 (tie-2nd), lost to Michigan State in NCAA Tournament first round.

Despite Andy Enfield’s overall success at USC, the Trojans still have not won a Pac-12 regular-season or tournament title during his tenure. They have one last chance, and it could happen: USC has a strong returning core, led by all-conference guard Boogie Elllis and defensive anchors Kobe Johnson and Joshua Morgan, plus a recruiting class 247 ranks No. 3 in the nation. Among the freshmen, point guard Isaiah Collier was arguably the No. 1 recruit, while Bronny James is expected to play this season despite a cardiac arrest event in the summer.

3. Colorado

Last season: 18-17 overall; 8-12 Pac-12 (tie 8th), lost to Utah Valley in second round of NIT

The Buffs could make a run for the conference title thanks to versatile POY candidate Tristan da Silva, along with a few guys Arizona fans may know all too well: Guard K.J. Simpson, a second-team all-Pac-12 pick last season; former UA recruiting target Cody Williams of Gilbert Perry High School, the highest-rated recruit in CU history; and center Eddie Lampkin, the TCU transfer who nearly bowled over Arizona in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.

4. Oregon

Last season: 21-15 overall; 12-8 Pac-12 (4th), lost to Wisconsin in NIT quarterfinals.

Usually a reliable pick to compete for the conference title, the Ducks have underachieved the past two seasons largely because of injuries, starting 11 different players last season. But guard Jermaine Couisnard, who scored 27 points in Oregon’s 87-68 win over UA in Eugene, returns after missing 17 games along with leading scorer and rebounder N’Faly Dante. If the Ducks stay healthy, watch out.

5. UCLA

Last season: 31-6 overall; 18-2 Pac-12 (1st), lost to Gonzaga in NCAA Sweet 16

Without all the familiar faces of the past few seasons, UCLA is rebuilding just like everyone else for a change. Strong international recruiting could help them stay in the race, while sophomore center Adem Bona could be a go-to force if he stays healthy after a late-season shoulder injury. But the new guys need some developmental time.

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6. Utah

Last season: 17-15 overall; 10-10 Pac-12 (tie-7th), no postseason

In an era where NIL money and coaching changes fuel the transfer portal faster than ever, Branden Carlson is an anomaly. The Utes’ 7-footer not only stayed in Salt Lake City after the 2021 firing of Larry Krystkowiak but is still around now for a fifth season, all at the same place. This time, he’s one of four returning starters on a team that should be coach Craig Smith’s best.

7. Stanford

Last season: 14-19 overall, 7-13 in Pac-12 (10th), no postseason

In seven years at Stanford, Jerod Haase has elevated the Cardinal’s recruiting but has not reached the NCAA Tournament. That might change this season, with a returning group that includes second-team all-Pac-12 forward Spencer Jones and 7-footer Maxime Raynaud, who led France to the FIBA U20 European Championships over the summer. A point guard transfer from Providence, Jared Bynum is expected to run the offense.

8. ASU

Last season: 23-13 overall; 11-9 Pac-12 (tie-5th), lost to TCU in NCAA Tournament first round.

Saying he doesn’t want to use NIL as an excuse for the nine players who took off after the Sun Devils’ NCAA Tournament run last season, coach Bobby Hurley is praising the three guys who stuck around: guards Frankie Collins and Jamiya Neal, along with center Alonzo Gaffney. That threesome and LSU transfer guard Adam Miller – if he receives a waiver to play immediately as a second-time transfer – should help the Sun Devils stay competitive.

9. Washington

Last season: 16-16 overall, 8-12 in Pac-12 (tie-8th), no postseason

For the past two seasons, prolific scorers Terrell Brown (2021-22) and Keion Brooks (2022-23) have helped coach Mike Hopkins hang on to his job in Seattle. Now it’s up to eight new players — including Kentucky transfer Sahvir Wheeler and Lamar transfer Nate Calmese of Gilbert — to help make Brooks a more efficient shooter and the Huskies a more efficient team. Nobody is holding their breath.

10. Washington State

Last season: 17-17 overall, 11-9 Pac-12 (tie-5th), lost to Eastern Washington in NIT first round

Coach Kyle Smith mostly had the Cougars on an upswing over his first four seasons in the Palouse, but a step backward appears inevitable this season. WSU lost its top four scorers — forward Mouhamed Gueye, Justin Powell, TJ Bamba and DJ Rodman — though versatile Macedonian forward Andrej Jakimovski is back along with guard Myles Rice, who missed last season while battling Hodgkin’s Lymphoma.

11. Cal

Last season: 3-29 overall; 2-18 Pac-12 (12th), no postseason

Known as the “Mad Dog” during his Stanford and NBA playing days, Mark Madsen is carrying fiery ambition into his first season with the Bears, whom he says have “the opportunity to have the greatest turnaround in NCAA history.” Madsen upgraded a talent-thin roster that now includes Fardaws Aimaq, the WAC’s Player of the Year in 2020-21 while playing for Madsen at Utah Valley, while former five-star guard Devin Askew is back from a hernia surgery.

12. Oregon State

Last season: 11-21 overall; 5-15 Pac-12 (11th), no postesason

After slamming the reset button following a three-win season in 2021-22, the Beavers rebuilt around nine new players last season and made a modest improvement. While they still aren’t expected to go far — or anywhere, really — the Beavers wildly surpassed expectations of a 12th-place finish in 2020-21 by reaching the Elite Eight.