Bill Polian calls it the βdraft industrial complexβ β the tendency for the NFL media machinery to generate unrealistic expectations for quarterbacks projected as first-round selections.
βThey canβt live up to it,β said Polian, a six-time NFL Executive of the Year and one of the greatest talent evaluators in league history. βThe adjustment from college is huge.
βAnd usually, the better the arm, the harder the lessons.β
Pac-12 quarterbacks included.
No conference has a better collection available in the 2024 NFL Draft, which begins Thursday in Detroit.
USCβs Caleb Williams is the presumptive first overall pick, seemingly destined for Chicago, with Washingtonβs Michael Penix Jr. and Oregonβs Bo Nix as potential Day One selections, as well.
All three face a steep learning curve, Polian told the Hotline earlier this week.
Their chief hurdle: Adjusting from the spread offense to the NFL system, which features a higher percentage of throws from the pocket and often requires quarterbacks to make three or four reads before delivering the ball into tighter windows than exist in college.
βYou canβt put the ball in harmβs way in the NFL and get away with it,β said Polian, who was inducted into the Hall of Fame after his run as general manager of the Bills, Panthers and Colts.
βAdditionally, college quarterbacks havenβt faced the ferocity of the pass rush they will see in the NFL. And they havenβt faced the post-snap sophistication of the defenses that they will see in the NFL.β
Polian likes what he has seen from Williams, Penix and Nix but believes all three will have a tougher adjustment than Michiganβs J.J. McCarthy, who played in a pro-style offense under coach Jim Harbaugh.
βWilliams is an arresting talent,β Polian said. βHis arm talent is undeniable, and he can make off-schedule throws. Heβll be drafted No. 1 no matter what. But heβs going to have a breaking-in period ... McCarthy is further along in his development.β
Polian believes Penix will be selected in the first round but is wary of the shoulder and knee injuries sustained at Indiana.
βHis size, his arm, his maturity, his competitiveness β everythingβs fine. And heβs a quick processor. He sees the field very well,β Polian said.
βThe injuries issues are the only thing that troubles me with him. Heβs going to have to be careful running the ball and recognize the need to protect himself.
βBut if I was a betting man, Iβd bet he goes in the first round.β
Polian was slightly more skeptical about Nix, largely because of Oregonβs spread offense.
βItβs a big jump in the style of play,β he said. βHeβs mature and has enough escapability to make you worry about him as a defender.
βHe certainly has a chance to be pretty good, but I donβt know if heβs necessarily a first-rounder. He might be a second-rounder.β
One thing is certain: Nix wonβt be the first quarterback selected; neither will Penix.
But recent history suggests thereβs a path to stardom nonetheless.
It has been eight years since the quarterback voted first-team All-Pro was the top quarterback selected in his draft class. Atlantaβs Matt Ryan, the first-teamer in 2016, was the first quarterback off the board in 2008.
Since 2016, none of the first- or second-team All-Pro selections β the list includes Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson β was the top quarterback selected in his draft.
So many of the essential traits, from mental processing power and toughness to work ethic and the ability to handle pressure, cannot be quantified.
βThat stuff is 55% of the grade,β Polian said of his method for evaluating quarterbacks.
βPeyton Manning threw 28 interceptions as a rookie. Thatβs the real world. But in the world of the draft industrial complex, all these guys are going to make the playoffs in Year 1.
βThe transition is hard, and if you donβt have good players around you, especially at receiver and offensive line, itβs really hard.β