Bowl projections: Utah, USC and Oregon to the CFP as a plot twist begins to unfold in Arizona

In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons. The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.

At the quarter pole, the Arizona schools have switched roles.

The team picked last in the Big 12 is undefeated and one of the biggest surprises in college football. The team picked fifth in the Big 12 has one loss, zero complete games and a challenging reality.

Or is this all one giant illusion?

Yes, Arizona State is better than expected — better, tougher, deeper and more skilled.

If the Sun Devils truly are the worst team in the Big 12, then it’s the best conference in the land. (Spoiler: They are not the worst team in the Big 12.)

And yes, the Wildcats have performed below standard thus far, struggling on defense against New Mexico, on offense against NAU and in all facets last week at Kansas State.

It’s a fascinating twist, for sure. The team thought to be deep in rebuilding mode is on the brink of a perfect September. The team that won 10 games last season is scrambling to rekindle its magic.

But both have nine games remaining, and those nine were not created equally.

Arizona State has three wins and a narrow path to six.

Arizona has two wins and an open road to eight.

In the age of mega-conferences like the Big 12, where 16 schools play nine conference games and miss six opponents, the schedule rotation frames both ceiling and floor.

The Big 12’s schedule matrix for the 2024-27 seasons, announced last fall, was designed to create competitive balance, protect rivalries and limit travel to the greatest extent possible.

It left the Arizona schools with only four common opponents: Utah, BYU, Texas Tech and UCF.

The distribution of the remaining 10 opponents favors the Wildcats, who miss all the Big 12 contenders save one (Utah).

The Sun Devils play all the Big 12 contenders save one (Iowa State).

That said, a morsel of context is required.

The bar for progress in Tempe, where second-year coach Kenny Dillingham has worked tirelessly to extricate his alma mater from a brutal situation, is fairly low.

If the Sun Devils win six games, the season is an unequivocal success. If they win seven, Dillingham should be a candidate for Big 12 Coach of the Year.

In Tucson, there’s a different calculus.

If the Wildcats don’t win at least eight games, coach Brent Brennan’s first season will be viewed as a disappointment.

Three games in, disparate emotions have begun percolating from each community. Sun Devil fans are delighted, Wildcat fans are concerned and the plot appears to be twisting.

But in college football, a nine-game conference season is two eternities.

To the projections ...

College Football Playoff

Team: Utah (Big 12 champion)

Comment: If we apply the aforementioned discussion to Utah’s schedule, the home date with Arizona in two weeks doesn’t feel like the test we initially expected, while the trip to Arizona State looks more challenging than it first seemed.

College Football Playoff

Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)

Comment: The Ducks have an extra week to prepare for a team they could beat in their sleep (UCLA), then comes a visit from Jonathan Smith and Michigan State, followed by the game of the year on the West Coast: Ohio State’s long-awaited appearance in Eugene.

College Football Playoff

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Team: USC (Big Ten at-large)

Comment: If the Trojans fall flat in the Big House on Saturday afternoon — from what we have seen of the two teams, USC should win — then kindly forget you ever saw this projection.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Washington State

Comment: Combine the Cougars’ hot start with a modest upcoming schedule and 10 wins is well within their reach. The key date: Sept. 28, when they visit Boise State.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Cal

Comment: This seems like a good time to remind fans of the selection process: Bowls can bypass one team for another as long as they are separated by no more than one win (in overall record). So if the Bears get to 8-4, which seems possible, they would have protection against falling below 6-6 teams.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Arizona

Comment: The Wildcats could be vulnerable in the selection process: Bowls are loath to invite teams that underperform because fans aren’t emotionally invested to gobble up tickets and hotel rooms. In that regard, the Wildcats have more downside risk than upside potential.

Sun Bowl

Team: Colorado

Comment: From the low of Lincoln to the high of Fort Collins, the Buffaloes’ long-haul outlook remains unchanged. They should win at least five games and as many as seven, with the final tally destined to play out on the margins.

LA Bowl

Team: Arizona State

Comment: The Sun Devils head back to the Lone Star State this week to face wobbling Texas Tech in what stands as a critical game for their postseason forecast.

A victory would get them within two wins of a bowl berth and help relieve the pressure during a rugged November.

Independence Bowl

Team: Washington

Comment: As noted in this space last week, an Apple Cup victory was critical to making UW’s bowl math manageable. The instant they were stuffed on fourth down, long division turned into trigonometry.

ESPN bowl pool

Team: Oregon State

Comment: Current Hotline projections show the Beavers finishing with seven wins, which means they could land in any of the Pac-12’s middle-tier bowl games. The ESPN pool includes the Armed Forces and First Responders Bowls, along with the Gasparilla.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford

Comment: The final two games of the season, at Cal and at San Jose State, look vastly more difficult than they did a few weeks ago. So, too, does the ACC opener this week at Syracuse.

Non-qualifier

Team: UCLA

Comment: The question isn’t whether the Bruins will find their way into the postseason. It’s whether they will find their way out of last place in the Big Ten. To that end, Purdue’s presence in the conference should help.