Pac-12 bowl projections: 6 teams alive for New Year’s Six berths; Arizona in line for Sun Bowl if not elsewhere

The release of the first College Football Playoff rankings is less than a week away. Starting on Halloween, and for the ensuing four Tuesdays, the selection committee will reveal its top-25 on ESPN.

The final rankings — the only rankings that matter — will be unveiled Dec. 3.

The rankings are essential not only for determining the CFP semifinalists but also participants in the other four New Year’s Six games.

For the first time in years, the Pac-12 has a slew of candidates for the latter.

As things stand:

Four teams have fewer than two losses and are alive in the playoff race: Washington, Oregon, Oregon State and Utah.

Two more teams have fewer than three losses and are in the candidate pool for New Year’s Six bids: USC and UCLA.

The situation will change this week in at least one regard: The Oregon-Utah loser will have two losses and be unofficially eliminated from the playoff chase. (No team with two defeats has qualified for the event in the CFP’s nine-year history.)

But barring upsets on Saturday, half the conference will be alive for New Year’s Six berths and have plenty at stake when the selection committee’s first rankings are released next week.

To the projections ...

College Football Playoff/Rose Bowl

Team: Washington (7-0)

Home games left: (two) Utah, WSU

Road games left: (three) Stanford, USC, Oregon State

Notable: Our current projections have the Huskies as the No. 3 seed behind Georgia and the Big Ten champion. With the top-seeded Bulldogs likely to play in the Sugar Bowl (because of proximity to campus), Washington would meet Ohio State or Michigan in Pasadena.

New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl

Team: Oregon (6-1)

Home games: (three) Cal, USC, Oregon State

Road games: (two) Utah, Arizona State

Notable: Noteworthy that there are six at-large spots available in the New Year’s Six via the Peach, Cotton and Fiesta Bowls. However, one is reserved for the top-ranked Group of Five team (the frontrunner: Air Force). So the Ducks could end up in Dallas or Atlanta, but Phoenix seems most likely.

Alamo Bowl

Team: Oregon State (6-1)

Home games: Stanford, Washington

Road games: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon

Notable: A small thing with the potential to become a big thing: OSU did not face a Power Five opponent in non-conference play. That would be a topic for discussion with the selection committee if the Beavers are in position for a ranking that places them in the New Year’s Six pool.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Utah (6-1)

Home games: Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado

Road games: Washington, Arizona

Comment: Although it’s not reflected here, our ceiling for Utah’s bowl outlook has been raised ... all the way to the College Football Playoff. With the emergence of safety Sione Vaki as an offensive playmaker, bet against Kyle Whittingham and Co. at your risk.

Holiday Bowl

Team: USC (6-2)

Home games: (two) Washington, UCLA

Road games: (two)Cal, Oregon

Comment: The Holiday Bowl’s presumed aversion to UCLA — the Bruins backed out of the 2021 game, leading to a lawsuit — could end up being USC’s salvation if the Trojans slide into the middle of the pack.

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Sun Bowl

Team: Arizona (4-3)

Home games: (three) Oregon State, UCLA, Utah

Road games: (two)Colorado, Arizona State

Comment: Like many teams that exceed expectations and end postseason droughts, the Wildcats would be a coveted participant, at least for the second-tier games. The high-end bowls that lean into TV ratings prefer participants with bigger brands and larger media markets.

LA Bowl

Team: UCLA (5-2)

Home games: (three) Colorado, Arizona State, Cal

Road games: (two) Arizona, USC

Comment: If the Bruins can’t climb into the Alamo or Las Vegas Bowls, they might slide because of the Holiday’s presumed aversion and the Sun’s reticence over inviting a repeat participant. UCLA lost to Pittsburgh in El Paso last year.)

At-large bowl

Team: Washington State (4-3)

Home games: (two) Stanford, Colorado

Road games: (three) Arizona State, Cal, Washington

Notable: The bowl math gets exponentially more challenging for the Cougars with each passing week. Lose Saturday at Arizona State, and it’s panic time.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado (4-3)

Home games: (two) Oregon State, Arizona

Road games: (three) UCLA, WSU, Utah

Notable: The Buffaloes finished one game short of a bowl berth in three consecutive seasons (2017-19). We strongly suspect that frustrating history will repeat this fall, despite the obvious progress under Deion Sanders. All five remaining games will be challenging, and CU needs two wins.

Non-qualifier

Team: Cal (3-4)

Home games: (two) USC, WSU

Road games: (three) Oregon, Stanford, UCLA

Notable: For the first time in weeks, we considered moving the Bears into the pool of eligible teams. Why? Because their prospects for victory against USC have improved immeasurably.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford (2-5)

Home games: (three) Washington, Cal, Notre Dame

Road games: (two) WSU, Oregon State

Notable: Forget this year and next. If coach Troy Taylor gets the Cardinal into the postseason in 2025, he should be awarded a lifetime contract.

Ineligible

Team: Arizona State (1-6)

Home games: (three) WSU, Oregon, Arizona

Road games: (two) Utah, UCLA

Notable: If bowl bids depended on effort instead of results, the Sun Devils would have already clinched a berth.