Pac-12 Hotline: Day 1 matters for a conference that has produced too few first-round draft picks

The Pac-12 is well positioned to end an unseemly streak when the NFL Draft begins Thursday evening in Las Vegas.

In each of the past three years, the conference has produced just three first-round selections.

This year, four players are expected to be picked on Day 1, and a fifth name might be called, as well.

Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, USC receiver Drake London, Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd and Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie are considered first-round locks by draft analysts.

A second Washington cornerback, Kyler Gordon, is viewed as a borderline Day 1 prospect.

Success in the first round matters, particularly on the recruiting trail. Elite prospects from the West Coast are motivated by two factors to sign with powerhouses elsewhere: The chance to participate in the College Football Playoff, and the lure of becoming a first-round pick.

On both fronts, the Pac-12 is lagging: It hasn’t placed a team in the CFP since the 2016 season and typically generates fewer first-round selections than most peers.

First-round picks by Power 5 conferences from 2019-21:

SEC: 36

Big Ten: 19

ACC: 16

Pac-12: 9

Big 12: 8

“The Pac-12 isn’t in its golden age,” said Randy Mueller, a former NFL general manager (Miami and New Orleans) who runs a Seattle-based scouting service.

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“The difference between out here and the schools in the east is the big guys. You watch some of those teams play, and on the lines, it’s a different game. And the exodus of high school quarterbacks going other places hasn’t helped.”

Only one Pac-12 quarterback was picked last year — Stanford’s Davis Mills, in the third round — and the outlook is even bleaker this week.

But three quarterbacks from the Pac-12 footprint who played elsewhere should be selected, possibly in the high rounds: Iowa State’s Brock Purdy (Gilbert), Nevada’s Carson Strong (Vacaville, California) and Mississippi’s Matt Corral (Ventura, California).

“When you lose top quarterbacks in recruiting and then you also lose them to transfers, you end up struggling,” Mueller said.

How far has the Pac-12’s overall talent production fallen?

The nine first-round picks produced over the past three years equal the number from a single draft in the middle of the last decade.

In 2015, the conference had nine Day 1 picks. Not surprisingly, that draft followed one of the best regular seasons in conference history, with Oregon reaching the College Football Playoff and six teams included in the end-of-season AP top-25 poll.

The paucity of first-rounders in recent years tracks closely with the dearth of playoff participants and ranked teams.

“It’s a vicious cycle,” Mueller said.

The lack of first-rounders and playoff success prompts elite recruits to sign elsewhere, which further undermines the product and exacerbates the recruiting challenges.

Or as Stanford coach David Shaw explained last year: “There’s that cycle of, if you want great players to come into your program, you have to show them that you can help great players improve and live that NFL dream.”