The college sports world will spend the next five days frothing over a Final Four matchup for the ages, with bitter rivals Duke and North Carolina meeting in the semifinals for the first time — and on the final weekend of Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching career, no less.
UNC’s presence on the big stage as a No. 8 seed is somewhat surprising; Duke’s appearance is not.
The Blue Devils possessed the most NBA talent in the West regional, by far. Anything short of a run to New Orleans would have approached a misuse of personnel.
• In a mock of the 2022 NBA Draft published last month by HoopsHype, which aggregates projections by various analysts, Duke had five first-round picks:
No. 3: forward Paolo Banchero
No. 5: forward AJ Griffin
No. 24: center Mark Williams
No. 26: forward Wendell Moore
No. 30: guard Trevor Keels
• The rest of the West regional had a combined total of four projected first-rounders:
No. 2: Gonzaga forward Chet Holmgren
No. 7: Memphis forward Jalen Duren
No. 19: Notre Dame guard Blake Wesley
No. 25: Alabama guard JD Davison
• Duke’s talent advantage holds this week, too. The rest of the Final Four field has one projected first-round pick:
No. 14: Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji
The Blue Devils have overwhelming talent, and talent matters most at the Final Four. In fact, Krzyzewski’s advantage in personnel this time around is greater than in many prior appearances.
Duke’s 2015 national title, for example, was powered by the presence of three first-round picks in the lineup (Jahlil Okafor, Tyus Jones and Justise Winslow). But the Blue Devils had to beat a team with two, Wisconsin, in the championship (Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky).
One could make the case that UNC coach Hubert Davis, Kansas’ Bill Self and Villanova’s Jay Wright had more difficult tasks navigating their teams through the regionals given their limited edge in raw talent relative to the competition.
To the winners and losers from the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight …
Winner: WarnerMedia. The parent company of TBS owns the broadcast rights to Saturday’s semifinals and will show Duke-North Carolina in the 9 p.m. (Eastern) window. The Tobacco Road rivalry is sure to challenge the most-watched national semifinal in history, Kentucky-Wisconsin in 2016, which drew 22.6 million viewers, according to the SportsMediaWatch database. That said, it’s unlikely to become the most-watched tournament game ever. That title goes to the Michigan State-Indiana State title showdown in 1979 (Bird vs. Magic), which drew 35.1 million viewers and propelled March Madness into its modern era.
Loser: Big Ten. The conference sent nine teams to the NCAAs for the second year in a row, failed to reach the Final Four for the second year in a row and was roasted by fans and media for the second year in a row. We would stop short of criticizing the NCAA selection committee, however. The bid process is based on regular-season performance and not intended to be predictive. Big Ten teams tend to fare well in November and December, when the framework for the NET rankings is established.
Winner: Blue bloods. For all the chaos early in the tournament and the miracle run from St. Peter’s, the teams still standing form one of the bluest-blooded Final Fours in decades, with a combined total of 61 semifinal appearances. The list starts with North Carolina (21), followed by Duke (17), Kansas (16) and Villanova (seven). Yep, a program with two national titles in the past six years (Villanova) has the thinnest résumé.
Loser: Elite Eight. The regional finals were a momentous letdown, with lopsided outcomes — only Villanova-Houston was close in the final minutes — and deeply offensive offense. Just two teams (Duke and Kansas) topped the 70-point mark. Houston and St. Peter’s didn’t make it to 50, and Villanova and Miami didn’t make it past 50. All in all, it was a bad look for the sport on one of its biggest weekends.
Winner: ACC. The only member of the Power Five that’s truly a basketball conference has two teams in the Final Four for the first time since way, way back in 2016 (Syracuse and North Carolina). This comes after an unimpressive regular season and just five NCAA Tournament bids. But as we saw last year with the Pac-12, and so many years with the Big Ten, collective results in the regular season don’t always correlate to March.
Loser: Villanova. The Wildcats lost their second-leading scorer, guard Justin Moore, to a torn Achilles in the final minute of the Elite Eight victory over Houston. His absence makes their task this weekend exponentially more challenging. But after watching Jay Wright’s program through the years, we would not underestimate Villanova’s chances. If anything, we’re more inclined to pick the Wildcats to beat Kansas.
Winner: St. Peter’s. The first No. 15 seed to reach the Elite Eight is arguably the most unlikely regional final participant since the tournament expanded to its current shape in 1985. Based in Jersey City, the Peacocks have an annual budget that can be counted with an abacus and one of the toughest coaching jobs in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (Marist, Iona, Monmouth, Rider, Quinnipiac, etc.). Don’t be surprised if Shaheen Holloway jumps to his alma mater, Seton Hall, this week. His leverage will never be greater.
Loser: West Coast. Given reasonable high-end expectations, March was a disappointment for the region. The Mountain West lost all four of its teams before the close of business on the first day of the first round. From the West Coast Conference, San Francisco lost in the opening round, Saint Mary’s went down meekly in the second, and Gonzaga was bounced earlier than expected. Meanwhile, the Pac-12’s three teams were out by the Sweet 16, including a No. 1 seed (Arizona). Last year was an unqualified success. This year, not so much.
Winner: AP preseason poll. The ballots are due in early November and therefore based entirely on raw talent — the same ingredient so critical to March success. For that reason, there might be no better predictor of how the tournament will unfold. How did the AP poll fare this time around? Preseason rankings for the four teams still standing: No. 3 Kansas, No. 4 Villanova, No. 9 Duke and No. 18 UNC.
Loser: My bracket. The Hotline nailed the West, with Duke beating Arkansas in the Elite Eight, but we were obliterated everywhere else and picked Kentucky to win the title. Although after watching St. Peter’s win three games, I feel ever-so-slightly less dumb. For that and so much else over the past two weeks, the Hotline says: Thank you, Peacocks.
