The Pac-12 experienced unprecedented coaching turnover last year with four schools making changes and three coming during the regular season in monthly, rat-a-tat fashion.
USC axed Clay Helton for poor performance on Sept. 13, Washington State canned Nick Rolovich for violating the school’s vaccine policy on Oct. 18, and Washington fired Jimmy Lake on Nov. 14 following a one-week suspension for misconduct.
Add Oregon coach Mario Cristobal leaving for Miami, his alma mater, on Dec. 6, and the normally staid Pac-12 had quite a walk on the wild side.
We don’t expect a comparable level of tumult this season, but the several head coaches are sitting on warm, if not hot seats.
Our assessment is below, listed in descending order of heat.
Salary figures taken from media reports (links provided).
Arizona State’s Herm Edwards
Signed through: 2024 season
Salary: $3.7 million (source)
Seat temperature: Death Valley in July
Comment: The Sun Devils had a premium opportunity to take charge of the South when Edwards arrived in December 2017: USC was cycling down, UCLA was floundering, and Utah had yet to rise. Five years later, ASU is facing a double whammy: The championship window has closed with the program mired in a recruiting scandal. We expect the NCAA’s Notice of Allegations (NOA) to include charges against Edwards directly. Hard to imagine ASU, which opened it season against NAU on Thursday, retaining him in that case. But will the NOA arrive during or after the season?
Colorado’s Karl Dorrell
Signed through: 2024 season
Salary: $3.6 million
Seat temperature: Better bring the sunscreen
Comment: This feels like a make-or-break year for Dorrell. Yes, it’s only his second season post-COVID, but that’s precisely why so much rides on the next three months. Dorrell must prove that CU’s 2020 success wasn’t a fluke within that unprecedented season but, rather, the standard fans should expect. If the results are comparable to last year (4-8/3-6), that becomes the reality. A dismissal this winter seems unlikely — CU is desperate for continuity — but Dorrell would be under intense pressure in ’23.
USC’s Lincoln Riley
Signed through: Undisclosed
Salary: Undisclosed
Seat temperature: Shorts and flip-flops
Comment: Heat takes two forms. In Riley’s case, there is no imminent danger of dismissal. Even if things go wrong, incomprehensibly wrong, he will be back for 2023. But the combination of his resume, USC’s pedigree, the roster additions and the resulting hype has created substantial Year One heat. The Hotline doesn’t value the pressure to meet expectations in the same manner as the pressure to stave off termination. But the former cannot be discounted entirely, especially at USC.
Stanford’s David Shaw
Signed through: Undisclosed
Salary: $6.15 million
Seat temperature: Thawing
Comment: Stanford’s last conference title (2015) feels like eons ago, and not just because of the pandemic. Could Shaw’s seat actually be warming? The Cardinal is bringing basketball coach Jerod Haase back for his seventh season despite having zero NCAA appearances. Would it really fire a football coach who owns three conference titles and a Stanford degree? Unlikely, but Shaw’s huge salary cannot be ignored. If there’s anything Stanford officials know how to calculate, it’s ROI.
Oregon’s Dan Lanning
Signed through: 2027 season
Salary: $4.85 million
Seat temperature: Internal convection setting
Comment: Before settling on our assessment of Lanning’s seat heat, we pondered the following: Would our view of his situation be any different if Georgia had lost the national championship game, or if he had compiled a similarly impressive resume for another program? Our conclusion: Nope, because the pressure on Lanning is rooted in expectations that Oregon has established for itself. With their recent success and loaded recruiting classes, the Ducks are bordering on playoff-or-bust mode. That’s especially true for one particular 84-year-old alum.
Jedd Fisch’s job is secure in Tucson provided he and his coaching staff can develop players from a touted recruiting class.
Arizona’s Jedd Fisch
Signed through: 2025 season
Salary: $2.6 million
Seat temperature: Poised to climb
Comment: Two trajectories emerged in the first 20 months of Fisch’s tenure: On the field, the Wildcats struggled; off the field, they thrived. That’s all well and good during the honeymoon phase, but the scoreboard must begin to reflect the roster upgrades. Put another way: Fisch needs to haul Arizona out of the cellar this season. The high side of .500 isn’t necessary, but the coaching staff must show a minimum level of aptitude for developing talent. Less than four wins, and the seat heat will begin to rise.
Washington’s Kalen DeBoer
Signed through: 2026 season
Salary: $3.1 million
Seat temperature: Global warming-ish
Comment: DeBoer faces more pressure than any of his predecessors (Steve Sarkisian, Chris Petersen and Jimmy Lake) experienced in their first year on Montlake because of the Pac-12 landscape. In the same hiring cycle that USC grabbed an A-lister, Lincoln Riley, and Oregon lured the hottest assistant on the market, Dan Lanning, the Huskies went with a vastly lower-key candidate — and are paying him substantially less. Fair or not, that backdrop will assist the UW faithful in their deliberations over the next two or three years.
UCLA’s Chip Kelly
Signed through: 2025 season
Salary: $4.7 million
Seat temperature: Cooler, but not cool
Comment: Typically, a four-year contract extension would be cause for a significant dissipation in seat heat. Not so with Kelly and UCLA, for two reasons: 1) The extension announced in January was based on a single winning season and doesn’t leave the school with severe financial exposure in the event of a future dismissal, and 2) The Big Ten move ratchets up the need for additional momentum. Put another way: The Bruins can’t set foot in their new conference in 2024 with the program stagnating and Kelly still at the helm.
Washington State’s Jake Dickert
Signed through: 2026 season
Salary: $2.7 million
Seat temperature: On ice, for now
Comment: In one sense, it’s all downhill for Dickert, who navigated a brutal situation, won the Apple Cup in dominant fashion under pressure-free (interim) circumstances, then watched his players plant the colors in the Husky Stadium turf. That led to a promotion, a raise and all the heat that comes with it. Pressure is relative, depending on the campus and the circumstances. Dickert’s pass isn’t free this season, but it’s discounted. Starting in 2023, however, the scrutiny gets real.
Cal’s Justin Wilcox
Signed through: 2027 season
Salary: $4.75 million
Seat temperature: Frozen solid
Comment: Anywhere else, a sub-.500 record through five seasons would place the head coach in danger of termination and surely wouldn’t result in a four-year contract extension. But that’s precisely what Wilcox received last winter. Of course, there is no place like Cal, where institutional impediments to success and COVID-related obstacles found nowhere else combined to derail the Golden Bears’ pre-pandemic momentum. If coaching contracts were based on the frequency of school-induced headaches, Wilcox would have a lifetime deal.
Oregon State’s Jonathan Smith
Signed through: 2027
Salary: $3.77 million
Seat temperature: Vladivostok in January
Comment: All Smith has done in four seasons is rebuild the program faster than expected, make brilliant use of the transfer portal, endure the pandemic, lead the Beavers to their first victory at USC in six decades and their first bowl berth in eight years. He’s not going anywhere … unless he wants to. With another winning season, Smith will be one of the hottest names on the market. Would he actually leave his alma mater? We’re skeptical, but never say never.
Utah’s Kyle Whittingham
Signed through: Doesn’t matter (2027 season)
Salary: Whatever he wants ($6 million)
Seat temperature: There is no seat (it’s a throne)
Comment: Nothing to say, nothing to see. Whittingham will coach until he no longer feels like coaching. And Utah fans should relish every moment.
