Pac-12 Hotline: Our post-spring basketball Top 25: USC and UA climb, UCLA falls and Colorado enters

Arizona men’s basketball coach Tommy Lloyd has struggled to navigate March Madness during his two seasons on the job, but the man knows his way around May like few others in his profession.

Lloyd expertly combined the transfer portal and recruiting trail last month to remake Arizona’s roster and position the Wildcats for the 2023-24 conference title and a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.

He fortified the bench with several touted international recruits, including Lithuanian center Motiejus Krivas, who reportedly owns a 7-foot-5 wingspan.

More importantly, Lloyd landed three likely starters from the transfer portal: Guards Jaden Bradley from Alabama and Caleb Love from North Carolina, plus forward Keshad Johnson, who played a crucial role in San Diego State’s stunning charge to the national championship game.

Bradley and Love will provide needed perimeter playmaking; Johnson, frontcourt defense. Above all, the newcomers should increase the level of physical and mental resolve for a program that was too soft to survive the rock fights that define March Madness.

All in all, Lloyd’s surgical overhaul of the roster significantly improves Arizona’s near-term outlook. (Center Oumar Ballo, versatile wing Pelle Larsson and promising guard Kylan Boswell are returning, as well.)

As a result, the Wildcats jumped five spots in our revised Top-25 forecast, which accounts for the recruiting decisions, NBA Draft attrition and transfer portal maneuverings that unfolded across the sport in April and May.

1. Kansas

Bill Self’s return to the bench, Hunter Dickinson’s arrival (from Michigan) and a strong core of veterans improved KU’s outlook substantially since our early-April forecast. It might take time for the pieces to coalesce — two-thirds of the roster is new — but the Jayhawks could be the top overall seed come Selection Sunday. Previous: 6

2. Purdue

We slotted the Boilermakers in this position two months ago when it appeared center Zach Edey would return for an encore. His decision became official on the final day of May, solidifying Purdue’s placement. Every starter returns from a team that won 29 games (but was shocked in the NCAAs by No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson). Previous: 2

3. Duke

Combine the returnees with the arrivals, and Duke has too many five-star talents to count. (The list starts with Kyle Filipowski and Jeremy Roach.) That’s the good news for second-year coach Jon Scheyer — and also the bad news. If the season ends prior to the Final Four, the heat under his seat will soar. Previous: 3

4. Marquette

The Golden Eagles lost in the second round of the NCAAs. Prior to that, they won 29 games, claimed the Big East regular-season title and conference tournament, and were a No. 2 seed in March Madness. All the key players except forward Olivier-Maxence Prosper are back for Shaka Smart’s third season. Previous: 4

5. Michigan State

The Spartans reached the Sweet 16 and appear well positioned for a deeper run 2023-24 as a slew of blue-chip recruits join coach Tom Izzo’s stocked lineup of returnees, which includes Tyson Walker, one of the nation’s top guards. In the Big Ten, two teams are not like the others. Previous: 5

6. San Diego State

The national runner-up was a huge winner in the NBA Draft withdrawal game as guards Lamont Butler and Jaedon LeDee opted to return. And don’t overlook the addition of USC guard Reese Dixon-Waters, who fits perfectly with the Aztecs on both ends of the court. But the outcome of what might be SDSU’s last season in the Mountain West depends entirely on its ability to manage the attention and expectations following that magical run. Previous: 11

7. UConn

Few teams were harder hit by NBA Draft defections than the national champions, who lost three key players in Jordan Hawkins, Adama Sanogo and Andre Jackson. (They combined for 40 points and 18 rebounds.) That said, few programs are better positioned to handle the defections. Coach Danny Hurley has several savvy veterans returning and a stellar recruiting class arriving. Previous: 1

8. USC

The other basketball team in Los Angeles is one of the offseason’s biggest winners. The Trojans possess an elite backcourt as returning guard Boogie Ellis joins forces with rookies Bronny James and Isaiah Collier, the nation’s No. 1 recruit. The frontline is loaded with long defenders — keep a close eye on Vince Iwuchukwu, a former five-star prospect — to give USC first-class court balance. Previous: 19

9. Houston

The return of guard Jamal Shead and arrival of wing LJ Cryer (from Baylor) will help the Cougars navigate their first season in the rugged Big 12. The elevated competition will prepare Houston for the NCAAs but could result in a lower seed — and a tougher path through March. Previous: 12

10. Arizona

We suggested earlier this spring that the departures of forward Azuolas Tubelis (NBA Draft) and guard Kerr Kriisa (transfer portal) — two highly-skilled players who struggled in the NCAAs — would benefit the Wildcats by expediting the roster changes needed to succeed in the postseason. After viewing Lloyd’s craftsmanship on that front, our position remains unchanged. In fact, we’ll double down. Previous: 15

11. Tennessee

The Vols won’t hit their peak until guard Zakai Zeigler fully recovers from his torn ACL, likely early in 2024. But at that point, watch out: Tennessee cleaned up in the transfer portal and has several key pieces returning. In our view, this is the team to beat in the SEC. Previous: 23

12. Creighton

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One of the top-12 teams in the country is merely the third-best in the stacked Big East (based on our forecast). The Bluejays return three double-digit scorers from a team that won 24 games and added a key transfer in guard Steven Ashworth (Utah State), who should offset the loss of Ryan Nembhard (to Gonzaga). Previous: 7

13. Kentucky

With his job performance under fire, John Calipari returned to his one-and-done blueprint for success: The Wildcats signed the top recruits in the country at three positions (plus the No. 3 point guard). The group will need time to gain cohesion but should be dangerous by March. Previous: 8

14. FAU

We believe in the Owls … for the most part. Every starter returns from the Final Four team, as does coach Dusty May. But FAU is moving into the American Athletic Conference, creating two daunting obstacles: The Owls must manage elevated competition and the expectations resulting from their March success. Previous: 14

15. Arkansas

The Hogs might have the best collection of talent in the SEC with their stellar recruiting class, transfers Tramon Mark (Houston) and Keyon Menifield (Washington) and several first-rate returnees (Devo Davis and Trevon Brazile). Until proven otherwise, we view them as a lock for the Sweet 16 under coach Eric Musselman. Previous: 10

16. Miami

Coach Jim Larranaga’s program will remain a contender in the ACC so long as it adequately fills the void left by Isaiah Wong’s departure. Then again, the current version of the ACC offers plenty of opportunity at the top. After Duke, it’s wide open. Previous: 16

17. Colorado

The outlook brightened considerably in Boulder when forward Tristan da Silva withdrew from the NBA Draft to join returning guard KJ Simpson, mega-recruit Cody Williams and transfer Eddie Lampkin (TCU). That quartet should propel CU back into the NCAAs and, potentially, to the top of the Pac-12. Previous: not ranked

18. Gonzaga

There’s a new era in Spokane following the departure of Drew Timme (and others), but the Zags managed to land two impact transfers in Ryan Nembhard from Creighton and Graham Ike from Wyoming. Still, we don’t see the same level of talent that existed in recent seasons and wonder about Mark Few’s long-haul recruiting success without former ace Tommy Lloyd. Previous: 21

19. North Carolina

From NCAA Tournament runners-up in 2022 to mere NCAA Tournament observers in 2023, the Tar Heels experienced quite the regression. Armando Bacot and R.J. Davis are back for another season, but success in Chapel Hill depends on the newcomers, including Stanford transfer Harrison Ingram. Previous: 22

20. Villanova

Nowhere to be found in our April rankings, the Wildcats are a solid inclusion after a stellar haul in the transfer portal with Washington State’s TJ Bamba and Richmond’s Tyler Burton (to name just two). Add returnee Justin Moore, and the post-Jay Wright dip we saw in 2023 could be fleeting. Previous: not ranked

21. Texas A&M

With the bulk of his starting lineup back, Buzz Williams will be under pressure to perform in March. His teams have won 52 games the past two seasons — but none in the NCAAs. The Aggies missed the tournament in 2022 and were bounced in the first round this spring. Previous: 20

22. Baylor

Any program with 104 wins and a national championship in the past four years while playing in one of the nation’s best leagues warrants a spot in our rankings. But the triple-whammy departures of Adam Flagler, Keyonte George and LJ Cryer create a major challenge for Scott Drew and Co. Previous: 18

23. Saint Mary’s

With guard Aidan Mahaney due back, we expect more of the same from the Gaels — that is, at least 20 wins and an NCAA Tournament berth. But just as the floor is high because of Randy Bennett’s stellar coaching, so is the ceiling low due to the lack of high-end talent. Previous: 24

24. St. John’s

If you’re surprised that Rick Pitino accumulated significant talent in a short period of time with the Red Storm — his incoming class includes Oregon State transfer Glenn Taylor — then you haven’t been paying attention for the past 45 years. Previous: not ranked

25. UCLA

Admittedly, this ranking is rooted in the belief that Mick Cronin’s coaching acumen will help the Bruins overachieve. But given the massive personnel losses and modest talent gains, the margin for error in Westwood will be oh-so-thin as UCLA takes its final swing through the Pac-12. Previous: 9

Dropped out: No. 13 Alabama, No. 17 Xavier, No. 25 North Texas