Halfway through the season, the Pac-12 has three teams on the brink of securing bowl bids and three more within manageable reach.
But that’s it. For everyone else, the climb into the postseason is either steep or Himalayan.
Based on the current records and upcoming schedules, it’s entirely possible that only half the conference will qualify.
For context on the calculus, the Hotline examined every year dating back to Pac-12 expansion in 2011, with the exception of the COVID-disrupted 2020 season.
We found a distinct downward trend in recent seasons compared to the first half of the 12-team era.
Pac-12 bowl teams per year:
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 9
2014: 8
2015: 10
2016: 5
2017: 9
2018: 7
2019: 7
2020: N/A
This season is unlikely to mirror the decade-low of five bids in 2016, the year Washington made the College Football Playoff — it would require collapses in Pullman or Corvallis, or both, and no offsetting upticks elsewhere.
But with only six teams in solid shape in late October, the conference is more likely to land on the lower end of the range.
To the latest projections …
Rose Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
Team: Utah (4-2/3-0)
Home games remaining (3): UCLA, Oregon, Colorado
Road games remaning (3): Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona
Comment: The Utes won’t run the table — they aren’t that good — but they should win enough games against the right combination of teams (division opponents) to secure the South. On the first Friday of December, the trophy will come. On the first day of January: heaven on earth.
Alamo Bowl (vs. Big 12)
Team: Oregon (5-1/2-1)
Home games remaining (3): Colorado, Washington State, Oregon State
Road games remaining (3): UCLA, Washington, Utah
Comment: The Ducks remain the North frontrunner and have six weeks to fix their shortcomings. But we’ve seen so little from them in recent weeks, and so much from Utah, that a change in projections was necessary.
Las Vegas Bowl (vs. Big Ten)
Team: Arizona State (5-2/3-1)
Home games remaining (3): Washington State, USC, Arizona
Road games remaining (2): Washington, Oregon State
Comment: The path to the division isn’t blocked, yet. But one more loss, to anyone anywhere, and the Devils are probably doomed. In that situation, Utah would need to lose three times.
Holiday Bowl (vs. ACC)
Team: UCLA (5-2/3-1)
Home games remaining (3): Oregon, Colorado, Cal
Road games remaining (2): Utah, USC
Comment: Oregon’s arrival this weekend brings loads of hype (and ESPN’s “College GameDay” broadcast from Westwood). But the trip to Salt Lake City next week carries far greater implications for the division.
Sun Bowl (vs. ACC)
Team: Oregon State (4-2/2-1)
Home games remaining (3): Utah, Stanford, Arizona State
Road games remaining (3): Cal, Colorado, Oregon
Comment: Would be OSU’s first trip to the Sun Bowl since the 2008 epic in which they defeated Pittsburgh 3-0. (Yes, 3-0.) And speaking of: What are the Rodgers brothers up to these days?
LA Bowl
Team: Washington State (4-3/3-2)
Home games remaining (2): BYU, Arizona
Road games remaining (3): ASU, Oregon, Washington
Comment: A team that appears to thrive on chaos just got a plate-full shoved down its throat. We have no doubt the Cougars will respond emotionally. But they need position coaches, too, or hadn’t you heard?
ESPN-owned bowls (Gasparilla, Armed Forces or First Responders)
Team: USC (3-3/2-3)
Home games remaining (3): Arizona, UCLA, Brigham Young
Road games remaining (3): Notre Dame, Arizona State, Cal
Comment: Nothing has changed from last week, except Arizona State appears more beatable; UCLA, a little less so.
Non-qualifiers
Team: Arizona (0-6/0-3)
Home games remaining (3): Washington, Cal, Utah
Road games remaining (3): USC, Washington State, ASU
Comment: Can’t believe it’s even a consideration, but NAU might not be the Wildcats’ worst loss of the season. Getting blown off the field by a team without an FBS win might be comparable to losing a close game to a decent FCS team.
Team: Cal (1-5/0-3)
Home games remaining (3): Colorado, Oregon State, USC
Road games remaining (3): Arizona, Stanford, UCLA
Comment: We haven’t ruled out the possibility of the Bears winning four of their last six. We have ruled out the possibility of them winning five of their last six.
Team: Colorado (2-4/1-2)
Home games remaining (2): Oregon State, Washington
Road games remaining (4): Cal, Oregon, UCLA, Utah
Comment: Barring a dramatic upturn, the Buffaloes will miss the postseason for the ninth time in their 11 seasons in the conference. We certainly didn’t expect that level of woe, despite the state of the program at the time.
Team: Stanford (3-4/2-3)
Home games remaining (4): Washington, Utah, Cal, Notre Dame
Road games remaining (1): Oregon State
Comment: The bowl math got substantially more difficult with the loss at WSU and the upswing by Utah. We see two wins for the Cardinal (Washington and Cal) but not a third.
Team: Washington (2-4/1-2)
Home games remaining (3): Oregon, ASU, Washington State
Road games remaining (3): Arizona, Stanford, Colorado
Comment: The Huskies are headed for a season-ending gut punch in which they finish one win short of a bowl berth — either because of the loss to Montana or because of a loss to Washington State.
