The Pac-12 has outperformed the Big 12 on the field this season, placing more teams in the College Football Playoff rankings and generating more serious contenders for the CFP.
But the Big 12 owns an advantage in one regard: Its best teams against the point spread have fared slightly better than the Pac-12’s best.
While the Oregon schools are atop the Pac-12 with 7-2 records against the number (details below), two Big 12 teams, Kansas and TCU, are 7-1-1.
Only one major college team owns a better mark against the spread this season: Tulane — yes, Tulane — has covered in eight of its nine games.
For gamblers who have taken advantage of Tulane’s surprising success, the Green Wave has, in fact, produced a green wave.
Here are records against the spread for each Pac-12 team, according to teamrankings.com:
7-2: Oregon and Oregon State
6-3: UCLA and WSU
5-4: Arizona, Cal, USC and Utah
4-5: ASU and Washington
2-7: Colorado and Stanford
To the details for Week 11 …
Lines from BetMGM. Trends from oddsshark.com and Phil Steele’s College Football 2022.
Colorado at USC (Friday)
Line: USC -34.5 (total: 64.5)
Comment: The Buffaloes are woeful in every regard and have failed to cover several enormous spreads this season, including the 31.5-point line in Week 10 against Oregon. But as we saw with USC a few days ago, focus can easily wane on defense. (Cal scored 21 points in the fourth quarter.) With UCLA lying in wait, the Trojans could turn their thoughts to the Nov. 19 crosstown showdown if they are comfortably ahead in the second half, creating the opportunity for CU to execute the backdoor cover.
Arizona State at Washington State
Line: Washington State -8.5 (total: 56.5)
Comment: A fairly low total that reflects WSU’s stout defense: The Under has been the right call in eight of its past 10 games. The Cougars pummeled ASU in one of the most surprising results of 2021, winning by two touchdowns as a 16-point underdog. This is ASU’s first trip to Pullman in seven years, making it a new and unique experience for the players. It will be 70 and sunny in Tempe when they leave campus on Friday afternoon. For the 12:30 p.m. kickoff, the high will be in the low 30s.
Stanford at Utah
Line: Utah -23.5 (total: 52.5)
Comment: The total feels low given that Utah scored 52 against Stanford last year and that the Cardinal just gave up 52 to Washington State over the weekend. But we have no idea how the visitors will manage more than 10 or 14 points, so any easing up by the Utes in the second half could bring the Under into play. Stanford has failed to cover in 12 of its past 14 games overall and the past five against Utah. The hosts typically get better as the season unfolds, which helps explain why they have covered eight of their last 11 games in November. Forecast for Salt Lake City: 38 degrees and dry.
Cal at Oregon State
Line: OSU -13.5 (total: 49.5)
Comment: An understandably low total given OSU’s stout defense and reliance on the running game, plus a Cal offense that can struggle with the best of ’em. The Bears have not won outside the Bay Area since the end of the 2019 season, a stretch that includes abysmal losses to Arizona last year and Colorado this year. Something has to give: Cal coach Justin Wilcox is 16-6 against the spread as a road underdog; his counterpart, OSU’s Jonathan Smith, has covered the number in 10 consecutive home games. The underdog has won the past three matchups outright.
Washington at Oregon
Line: Oregon -13.5 (total: 69.5)
Comment: The marquee game of Week 11 features a lopsided rivalry, with Oregon winning 15 of the past 17 collisions. This is the biggest point spread in the series since the Huskies were favored by 17 points in 2017 — and won by 35. Washington has failed to cover the spread in its past five games this season and in eight of its past nine games on the road. Meanwhile, the Ducks have covered their last five (home or road), with the Over being the right call in their past five in Autzen Stadium. Oregon averages 43.1 points per game; the Huskies average 38.6. Forecast for Eugene: 50 degrees with a 20 percent chance of rain.
Arizona at UCLA
Line: UCLA -19.5 (total: 77.5)
Comment: One of the highest totals of the season in the Pac-12, and for good reason: The Bruins are a powerhouse offense with a wobbly defense, while the Wildcats possess a solid offense and awful defense. (They have allowed at least 45 points in all five conference losses.) Arizona often plays well in Los Angeles, whether it’s the Rose Bowl or Coliseum, but we wonder about its physical condition one week after facing Utah’s punishing style of play. The Bruins have covered the spread in their past seven games played in November. But this is a major look-ahead situation with USC next week.
