An NFL Draft unlike any other arrives, with a pool of Pac-12 candidates that includes opt-outs and opt-ins.
It’s heavy on linemen, light on skill position players and almost entirely devoid of quarterbacks.
Some prospects played seven whole games last season. Others played three or four. A few played zero.
None of them were able to make their case at the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis, which was entirely remote.
But all of them, to one degree or another, are part of the Pac-12’s ongoing reputation-enhancing process, which began with the sterling performance in the NCAA Tournament and continues — potentially — for three days in Cleveland.
Here are five storylines to watch:
Fate of the opt-outs
A slew of the Pac-12’s top talents, including Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell, passed on the 2020 season because of COVID concerns, injury worries, both or neither.
And the NFL might not look too kindly on their decisions.
“Some clubs won’t hold it against the kids for opting out, but they have questions,” said Rob Rang, a Seattle-based draft analyst for Fox Sports.
“If the teams sense they were scared of losing draft stock, then what does that say about them?
“I had two (NFL) guys tell me that if they had players with the same grade and one played last season and the other didn’t, they would take the guy who played.”
The total haul
The Pac-12 has produced at least 30 NFL Draft picks in each of the past seven years, with a peak in the mid-2010s followed by a leveling off in recent years.
Annual totals since Utah and Colorado entered the conference:
2012: 28
2013: 28
2014: 34
2015: 39
2016: 32
2017: 36
2018: 30
2019: 33
2020: 32
This year, the selection total could drop into the 20s because the prospect pool is smaller: Numerous seniors are taking advantage of the free season of eligibility and returning to school for ’21.
As a result, the post-draft totals could look grim for the conference compared to its peers; context will be required.
Day 1 candidates
Only two players are considered locks for the first round, and both are offensive linemen: Oregon’s Sewell and USC tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, who projects as a guard in the NFL.
Two others prospects are viewed as borderline first-rounders, and both are from Washington: defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike and edge rusher Joe Tryon.
Either (or both) could be off the board in the mid-to-late 20s, or they could fall into the early part of the second round.
(Onwuzurike is considered the more valuable pick because of the dearth of quality interior defensive linemen available.)
The last time the Pac-12 had two or fewer first-round selections was 2010, when Cal’s Tyson Alualu and Jahvid Best were the only players picked.
The lonely QB
Perhaps nowhere is the paucity of Pac-12 prospects more evident than the quarterback position.
Stanford’s Davis Mills, considered a potential Day 2 pick — in our opinion, he’s a first-round talent — is the only quarterback available. Every other 2020 starter is either returning for next season or transferred out of the conference.
The ’21 draft will mark the third time in five years that the Pac-12 will produce just one quarterback selection.
In 2019, WSU’s Gardner Minshew was the only pick; in 2017, it was Cal’s Davis Webb.
The final tally
Bragging rights for producing the most ’21 draftees shapes up as a four-school race between Stanford, Washington, Oregon and USC.
Chad Reuter, a draft analyst for NFL.com, published a seven-round mock in which the selections broke down in this manner:
Stanford: 7 picks
USC: 5
Oregon: 5
Washington: 5
