The following ballot was submitted to the AP last week and includes the official AP preseason poll rankings that were released this morning.
The AP provides guidance for in-season voting — “base your vote on performance, not reputation” — but not the preseason ballots.
As in the past, the order below is a projection of where teams will finish in the final poll, after the bowl games.
My in-season ballots will be published every Sunday morning, with the exception of Labor Day weekend.
1. Georgia (AP: 5): Finally, the Bulldogs break through the Alabama wall and flex their talent in the CFP. The defense is usually stout, quarterback JT Daniels is set for a dream season, and the regular-season schedule does not include LSU, Texas A&M or the Crimson Tide. If Georgia handles Clemson in the opener, its path is wide open.
2. Oklahoma (2): Combine all the returnees with several high-end transfers, and the Sooners are better positioned for the national title than they have been in a decade. Their fate hinges on how well their lines hold up in a potential CFP showdown against the SEC.
3. Alabama (1): Arguably too low by two spots, but we’ll live with that gaffe if the Crimson Tide wins it all again. The defense is loaded and the offensive line should be first rate, but not even Alabama can lose such a collection of playmakers and not feel the impact, however slight it might be. (Of note: The Tide has not won back-to-back titles in the playoff era.)
4. Ohio State (4): We considered slotting the Buckeyes a few rungs lower because of the void at quarterback and a defense in need of patching. The schedule features an early date with Oregon but is otherwise highly manageable, especially with regard to the, um, regular-season finale.
5. North Carolina (10): With a morsel of trepidation, we’re projecting Clemson to lose its stranglehold on the ACC, and the Tar Heels are better equipped to take advantage than any other plausible contender. Quarterback Sam Howell is one of the nation’s best, and the defense returns 10 starters.
6. Clemson (3): It doesn’t matter how well D.J. Uiagalelei performs or how many starters return or how often coach Dabo Swinney preaches otherwise: Saturdays will be different for the Tigers without Trevor Lawrence and, within that changed dynamic, fourth quarters will be much, much different.
7. Iowa State (7): If anything, this prediction is too low. The Cyclones return the bulk of their starting lineup, including quarterback Brock Purdy, from a team that went 8-1 in the Big 12 and thumped Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Their late-November trip to Norman is a game-of-the-year candidate, with a playoff bid potentially at stake for both teams.
8. Wisconsin (12): Ohio State’s shadow is long enough to extend 500 miles to the northwest, all the way to Madison, but the Badgers are equipped for a special season. If they manage a killer opening month that features Penn State, Notre Dame and Michigan, a showdown with the Buckeyes in Indianapolis awaits.
9. Texas A&M (6): Three consecutive top-10 recruiting classes form the core of a roster that should, once again, contend in the SEC West. Is this the year the Aggies beat Alabama? We’re skeptical, especially with the quarterback void left behind by Kellen Mond’s departure.
10. Indiana (17): We considered a loftier ranking for the Hoosiers, who return 18 starters from a team that almost beat Ohio State. Then we glanced at the schedule and saw road trips to Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, plus home dates with Cincinnati and Ohio State.
11. Oregon (11): There are enough pieces in place for the Ducks to win their third consecutive Pac-12 title and contend for a playoff bid, but only if they receive high-level quarterback play from Anthony Brown. The former Boston College starter played sparingly for Oregon last year and won’t have much time to settle in: The Ducks visit Columbus in Week Two.
12. Penn State (19): Was the sub-.500 record last season a pandemic-fueled fluke or the start of a multi-year backslide for the Nittany Lions? We should have an answer by the middle of September, following early duels against Wisconsin and Auburn.
13. Arizona State (25): The Sun Devils are engulfed in a recruiting scandal that has led to three position coaches being placed on paid leave and forced Herm Edwards to shuffle his staff. But the combination of veteran quarterback Jayden Daniels and an experienced defense could produce the Sun Devils’ first conference title in 25 years, if the NCAA doesn’t get them first.
14. Notre Dame (9): The Irish must break in a new quarterback, rebuild their offensive line and replace their star linebacker. And their schedule looks difficult, with the potential for unforgiving. So we see three or four losses in total, which translates roughly to a middle-tier slot on the ballot.
15. Cincinnati (8): With 15 starters back from a team that went 9-1, including crafty quarterback Desmond Ridder, the Bearcats should be the best of the Group of Five. Every year they retain coach Luke Fickell is a victory, no matter how many wins he produces.
16. Utah (24): The Utes are stocked with super-seniors and should have their typically stout defensive front. Their ceiling depends on quarterback play and tailback production. They have a Baylor transfer (Charlie Brewer) competing with a former Texas transfer (Cam Rising) for the former job and an LSU transfer (Chris Curry) competing with an Oklahoma transfer (TJ Pledger) for the latter.
17. Miami (14): Quarterback D’Eriq King signed an endorsement deal with College Hunks Hauling Junk, but can King, who’s recovering from an ACL injury, lift the Hurricanes to their first ACC title — their first ever ACC title? (They joined the conference in 2004.) Count us as skeptical.
18. Oklahoma State (NR): What might be the final year of the Big 12 — at least in its current shape — should be a riveting one, with emotions high whenever SEC-bound Texas and Oklahoma visit one of the other eight campuses. In the case of Bedlam, they should probably send in the National Guard.
19. Florida (13): The Gators have a few too many holes (replacing Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts, to name two) for us to believe they can hang with Georgia in the SEC East. Their conference opener, against Alabama in Week Three, will provide clarity on everything that follows.
20. USC (15): Is this the year the Trojans reclaim the conference title, or the year the Clay Helton era comes to a close? The combination of quarterback Kedon Slovis and a veteran defense make the former a distinct possibility. The lack of a dominant offensive line and consistent running game create the conditions for the latter.
21. Houston (NR): No team endured more course corrections last season than the Cougars, who had six games postponed because of COVID. The chaos undercut what might otherwise have been a quality season, but UH has enough returnees to turn what-might-have-been in 2020 into what-should-be in 2021.
22. Washington (20): They didn’t play for the Pac-12 title because of COVID, but the Huskies were the North division champs last season. If star edge rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui returns from an Achilles injury sooner than later and the quarterback play is solid, they might replicate their accomplishment over a full season.
23. Louisiana (23): With 20 starters returning from a team that went 10-1, the Ragin’ Cajuns have the hype necessary to climb the polls quickly. Whether they remain in the race for a New Year’s Six berth depends partly on how they perform in the opener, at Texas. And speaking of …
24. Texas (21): Who figured the hiring of Steve Sarkisian would be the second biggest football news of the year in Austin? We fully believe Sarkisian, who was lured away from his playcalling gig at Alabama, will elevate the underachieving program — just in time for the Longhorns to finish third in the SEC West.
25. LSU (16): After winning the national title in 2019 and crumbling last season, the Tigers are in dire need of a rebound. The task became more difficult with the preseason injury to quarterback Myles Brennan, but there’s enough talent elsewhere — more than enough, actually — for Ed Orgeron’s team to regain its footing.
Also considered (in no particular order): Nevada, TCU, Coastal Carolina, Iowa, Mississippi, UCF, Appalachian State, Boise State, UCLA, Northwestern, San Jose State, Minnesota, Liberty, Kentucky, Cal, Ball State, Michigan, Arkansas and San Diego State.
