The Pac-12 desperately needs an Oregon State to emerge this week at the men’s basketball tournament in Las Vegas.
If it happens to be the Oregon State, that’s fine. But it could be anyone as long as someone duplicates OSU’s feat from 2021 and claims an unlikely tournament championship.
Barring an upset winner, the conference likely will receive just three bids to the NCAA Tournament.
Arizona, USC and UCLA are locks for the at-large field. In order to collect a fourth, the Pac-12 needs one of the other nine teams to win the tournament title and collect the automatic bid.
Oregon State is last in the standings and last on the list of possibilities.
No. 4 seed Colorado and No. 8 seed Arizona State have won seven of their past eight games but are on the same side of the bracket, leaving one pathway for the two best candidates. And that’s the Arizona side of the bracket.
Why does Oregon State 2.0 seem unlikely? The top of the conference is stronger.
Here’s the evidence:
Last year, the top-seeded Pac-12 team in the NCAA Tournament was Colorado, which was slotted on the No. 5 line.
This year, Arizona should be a No. 1 seed, while UCLA is well positioned for a No. 4. Both pose far steeper challenges for the pretenders in Las Vegas than any of the favorites did last year.
The most likely outcome, by far:
One of the heavyweights wins the championship and the Pac-12 sends just three teams to the NCAAs for the third time in the past four tournaments.
Our projections:
Opening round (Wednesday)
No. 8 ASU vs. No. 9 Stanford (1 p.m.): The Cardinal has lost five in a row and seven of its past eight, and it managed just 56 points Saturday in Tempe. Also, its past two appearances in the Pac-12 Tournament have been absolute clunkers: opening-round losses to Cal in both ’20 and ’21. Meanwhile, ASU is one of the hottest teams in the conference. Decent chance Stanford calls it quits long before the final buzzer. Pick: Arizona State
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Oregon State (3:30 p.m.): We see two possibilities here, and both assume the Beavers actually believe they can beat their rival (despite all evidence to the contrary). Either Oregon continues its plunge and loses at the wire to conclude a deeply disappointing season; or the Ducks muster the type of effort we saw in Tucson and Los Angeles and handle OSU impressively. Pick: Oregon
No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Cal (7 p.m.): The Cougars swept the season series, but not by much: It was a one-possession game with four minutes left in Pullman and a one-possession game with 25 seconds left in Berkeley. If WSU shoots well, it should survive and advance. (Nobody relies more on 3-pointers than WSU.) Otherwise, this will be a low-scoring, brutal-to-watch affair in which the first team to 45 wins. Pick: Cal
No. 6 Washington vs. No. 11 Utah (9:30 p.m.): Another close season series, with the Huskies winning both. Will the spirited showings last weekend against the Oregon schools translate to a sterile, quiet neutral court? Will Terrell Brown Jr. receive any help from his teammates in the second half? The Utes had subpar season but played better down the stretch and won’t lack for belief. Feels like an upset. Pick: Utah
Quarterfinals (Thursday)
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 8 Arizona State (1 p.m.): The Sun Devils hadn’t started their late-season push the last time these teams collided, so we’re hesitant to draw conclusions, other than this: It will be intense and entertaining — if not for the full 40 minutes then for 35. No way ASU goes down without making Arizona uncomfortable deep into the second half. Pick: Arizona. (Chance of an upset: 35%. Chance of a technical foul: 103%).
No. 4 Colorado vs. No. 5 Oregon (3:30 p.m.): If the Ducks reach the quarterfinals, that means they brought enough urgency to Las Vegas to become a threat. But CU will have fresher legs and a clear plan to limit Oregon’s erratic but talented attack. We expect high-level showings from freshman point guard KJ Simpson and forward Jabari Walker, who’s good enough to carry CU to victory in what could be the close of his college career. Pick: Colorado
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 10 Cal (7 p.m.): Our assumption — and it’s a big one given how the season has unfolded in Westwood — is that UCLA’s key players are healthy and available. Add the psychological boost from the victory over USC, and the Bruins should win decisively. Cal relies heavily on guard Jordan Shepherd, which is a difficult approach against a defense that has multiple options in man-to-man situations. Pick: UCLA
No. 3 USC vs. No. 11 Utah (9:30 p.m.): Some years, the nightcap isn’t worth watching, but this could be a #Pac12AfterDark special. The Trojans play to the level of their competition better than anyone in the conference, so we don’t expect them to run and hide from the Utes. Quite the opposite, in fact. Look for Utah to take control early and force the Trojans to rally once again. We could see this going to OT. Pick: USC
Semifinals (Friday)
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Colorado (7 p.m.): CU’s recent head-to-head victory brings an added layer of intrigue to what should be a close, well-played affair … for about 35 minutes. With the game on the line, the Wildcats will have more ways to score, more options for defending and more juice from the crowd. The setting will be neutral in name only as the last members of the massive caravan arrive from Tucson prior to tipoff. Pick: Arizona
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 3 USC (9:30 p.m.): The Trojans had no business being in position to win last weekend and yet there they were — ever-so-close to a sixth consecutive victory over the Bruins. Even an incrementally better performance should be enough to continue a rivalry dominance that we cannot really explain. It’s coaching, it’s talent, it’s matchups, it’s fortune — all of it and more. Pick: USC
Championship (Saturday)
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 3 USC (7 p.m.): Should be closer than the meeting last week, but not by much. The Trojans aren’t equipped to handle Arizona on either end while the Wildcats have multiple options for defending USC’s key players, Isaiah Mobley and Drew Peterson. Just 11 months after he arrived, rookie coach Tommy Lloyd lifts the trophy to complete a breathtaking conference season and send the Pac-12 into the Madness as a three-bid league.
Arizona 84, USC 71
