There is relative calm across the coaching landscape as conference tournaments ramp up. Only two schools in the Power Five leagues have vacancies: Maryland and Louisville.
Those openings could create intrigue in the Pac-12 over the coming weeks, as we’ll explore below.
But at this point, a conference that experienced four changes in football has just one men’s basketball seat emitting extreme heat.
Here we go:
(Teams listed in order of most likely to experience a coaching change.)
Stanford
Coach: Jerod Haase (sixth season)
2021-22 record: 15-15, 8-12
Chance of vacancy: 85%
Assessment: Six years under Haase and nothing to show for them: No regular-season titles, no tournament titles, no NCAA appearances and no buzz for the program. (His best conference record is a mere 11-7, and that was way back in Year 2.) At any other school, the likelihood of a vacancy would be 110%, but this is Stanford: The university administration doesn’t know if a basketball is inflated or stuffed and couldn’t care less either way; the current athletic director, Bernard Muir, hired Haase and would have to admit the mistake; and the external pressure for change is close to non-existent. If a basketball program collapses in broad daylight but nobody cares, does it really collapse?
USC
Coach: Andy Enfield (ninth season)
2021-22 record: 25-6, 14-6
Chance of vacancy: 30%
Assessment: There is no chance of Enfield getting dismissed, but there is a chance that he’ll draw interest from a Power Five program close to his roots in the Mid-Atlantic region. (Did we mention Maryland has a vacancy?) In that case, the Trojans must determine whether Enfield is worth the whatever-it-takes approach or whether a take-it-or-leave-it offer is all they’re willing to extend. The leverage is with the school because of basketball’s place in the hierarchy. If anything, Enfield has lost strategic position since a certain football coach was hired three months ago.
UCLA
Coach: Mick Cronin (third season)
2021-22 record: 23-6, 15-5
Chance of vacancy: 25%
Assessment: The Bruins’ vacancy meter has spiked in recent weeks because of a development thousands of miles from Westwood: It no longer appears certain that Louisville’s search will end with the appointment of alum Kenny Payne. That suggests the Cardinals could have an eye on Cronin, who grew up in nearby Cincinnati and would be an A-level hire after taking UCLA to the Final Four. Cash isn’t an issue for Louisville, but stability is: The school has an interim president and athletic director and is awaiting sanctions from the NCAA from the FBI scandal. Would Cronin jump? Our gut: No. Would Cronin use this to leverage a new contract out of the UCLA administration? Our gut: He’s not stupid.
Cal
Coach: Mark Fox (third season)
2021-22 record: 12-19, 5-15
Chance of vacancy: 2%
Assessment: Fox is seemingly secure for one more season because no athletic director wants to admit a mistake after just three years and that includes Cal’s Jim Knowlton, who hired Fox after inheriting the two-year sinkhole that was the Wyking Jones era. Cal is one of the toughest jobs in the conference — nobody expects top-four finishes with regularity. But the Bears should be competitive most years and haven’t been under Fox, whose team is well-coached but lacking in talent. Next season will be telling.
Arizona State
Coach: Bobby Hurley (seventh season)
2021-22 record: 14-16, 10-10
Chance of vacancy: 1%
Assessment: The likelihood of a change in Tempe has dropped precipitously in recent weeks with the Sun Devils reeling off seven wins in their final eight games. (Also, the athletic department has other issues, or hadn’t you heard?) ASU probably won’t make the NCAAs and has yet to even reach the Round of 32 under Hurley, so fan frustration is understandable — another NCAA whiff next season, and it could be time for a change. We have set the vacancy meter at 1% only because you never know which jobs might surface on the East Coast, and perhaps Hurley will want to stay a step ahead of the posse.
Washington
Coach: Mike Hopkins (fifth season)
2021-22 record: 16-14, 11-9
Chance of vacancy: 1%
Assessment: In Seattle as in Tempe, the seat has cooled considerably — to the chagrin of many Husky fans. They argue that UW hasn’t beaten anyone, but 11-9 is 11-9. They complain that UW is a one-man team, but recruiting talents like Terrell Brown Jr. is part of coaching. Hopkins needed to show substantive progress after two bad seasons, and he cleared that bar with ease. A year from now, the dynamics might be different. As the situation stands, the Huskies have no reason to make a change.
Oregon
Coach: Dana Altman (12th season)
2021-22 record: 18-13, 11-9
Chance of vacancy: 0.1%
Assessment: Our expectations of an opening in Eugene weren’t high to begin with and have dropped in recent weeks. Why? Retirement is always a possibility with a head coach in his 60s, and Altman will turn 64 before next season. But this year has been deeply frustrating for him, and it seems unlikely that the winningest coach in Oregon history would want to end his career with a clunker.
Oregon State
Coach: Wayne Tinkle (eighth season)
2021-22 record: 3-27, 1-19
Chance of vacancy: 0.1%
Assessment: If not for the Elite Eight run, the Beavers might have dismissed Tinkle last spring following the Pac-12 Tournament. Instead, they were boxed into offering a contract extension (through the 2026-27 season) that has left them without options following an astounding collapse. One more year like this — or close to this — and they will have to eat the buyout and move on.
Washington State
Coach: Kyle Smith (second season)
2021-22 record: 18-13, 11-9
Chance of vacancy: 0.01%
Assessment: The only scenario that leads to a change begins with WSU winning the Pac-12 Tournament, winning a game or two in the NCAAs and Smith drawing interest from another Power Five program. We consider that scenario extremely unlikely but not unthinkable.
Arizona
Coach: Tommy Lloyd (first season)
2021-22 record: 28-3, 18-2
Chance of vacancy: 0.00001%
Assessment: If there’s any news on Lloyd’s future in coming weeks, it assuredly would involve a contract extension from the university. He has four years left, but 28-3 is 28-3 and the Wildcats just might decide to proactively sweeten his pot. However, we believe there’s a non-zero chance of Lloyd leaving until it’s confirmed that Gonzaga’s Mark Few won’t be retiring. If the Zags win the national title, might Few step down? And if Few were to step down, Lloyd, who grew up in Washington and spent 20 years at Gonzaga, would be atop the list of potential replacements.
Colorado
Coach: Tad Boyle (12th season)
2021-22 record: 20-10, 12-8
Chance of vacancy: 0%
Assessment: CU won’t make the NCAAs without the Pac-12’s automatic bid, but the bigger picture under Boyle is worth noting: The Buffaloes probably would have qualified for the Madness in 2020 if not for COVID; they reached the second round of the tournament last spring; he received a pay hike last summer; and he’s working with the best freshman class in school history. Also, the Buffs could use some stability with at least one of their revenue sports.
Utah
Coach: Craig Smith (first season)
2021-22 record: 11-19, 4-16
Chance of vacancy: 0%
Assessment: As a first-year basketball coach at a football school with a roster in need of upgrades, Smith is completely secure. As a first-year coach with a 4-16 conference record, there is no chance Smith gets lured away by a powerhouse in other regions. (He’s from Minnesota.) We won’t offer an opinion on his tenure until the close of Year 3.
