The Buffalo Sabres feel they've passed some measuring-stick games this year with wins over Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Edmonton and Nashville. Fair enough.
They've also had some miserable failures when you think of the double drubbing against Seattle and home blowouts against Calgary (5-0) and Tampa Bay (6-1).
The Red Wings scored twice in the final 10:07 of regulation to rally from a two-goal deficit and went on to beat the Sabres 3-2 in overtime.
Putting all that aside and taking the walk-before-you-can-run approach, Monday and Tuesday are two pretty interesting days traversing snowy Rebuild Road.
Talk all you want about Tampa Bay, Toronto, Boston and now even Florida. If the Sabres ever want to get anywhere in the Atlantic Division, they first better conquer Ottawa and Detroit.
There are powers in the Atlantic as well as whatever it is Montreal is doing. And then there are the Sabres, Senators and Wings doing the rebuild thing. And maybe we shouldn't be surprised the team with Hall of Famer Steve Yzerman as the GM is the one doing it best.
Detroit is 12 points ahead of the Sabres and 17 ahead of Ottawa after Monday's 3-2 overtime escape in KeyBank Center that you can only describe as baffling.
The Sabres had a 2-0 lead midway through the third period, gave up a short-handed goal and mentally crumbled. Detroit captain Dylan Larkin tied the game and won it in overtime. The Wings went 4-0 against the Sabres this year – with three of the wins in OT and two of them coming on the road by wiping out two-goal deficits in the third period.
Yeesh. That's a lotta stink right there.
Coach Don Granato subscribed to my theory about the games against the Wings, and Tuesday night's contest in Ottawa, having extra impact organizationally for this year at least. Granato theorized there's actually less pressure against top teams, less stress over mistakes.
Everyone in blue and gold understands these are teams you have to show success against to give some indication progress is being made. Even with no fans in the stands, Tuesday's game in Ottawa won't be easy: The Senators are coming off a five-goal third period that produced a win in Edmonton. When are the Sabres going to show that kind of mental toughness in a game?
The Sabres played much harder than they did during Saturday's no-show in Detroit – not that exceeding that level of incompetence should be any sort of standard – but were still tight when it mattered. Tage Thompson got caught up ice on Vladislav Namestikov's short-handed goal, Dylan Cozens got badly bullied off the puck behind the net on the tying tally and Henri Jokiharju's turnover led to the OT goal.
That's three young core players. Goalie Aaron Dell was solid and deserved better. The shortie clearly agitated Granato the most.
"At some point, you gain the situational awareness to have a greater sense of objective," Granato said. "The last thing you should do is complicate things on the power play at that point. It should be just simple and direct."
Buffalo Sabres center Dylan Cozens (24) gets checked by Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider (53) in the second period at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo, Monday, Jan. 17, 2022.
Roster construction remains a bone of contention in this view. You'd like to see more of Jack Quinn. He got one game against Tampa Bay and was Buffalo's best forward but got sent back to Rochester. In three games in the AHL since, he's had eight points. Isn't that league conquered for the No. 1 pick?
Mattias Samuelsson finally made his NHL season debut and showed that he's already better than at least half of the club's current defense corps. Lucas Raymond had a tap-in chance during the second period but Samuelsson expertly tied him up with his stick with the savvy of a veteran and Dell smothered the puck.
"That's always been my style. I'm not a flashy player obviously that people notice the little things," Samuelsson said. "That's my guy going to the net and they're going to attempt to pass it over there. I gotta either get a body on him or get a piece of the puck. He still got it towards the net and 'Deller' made a nice save."
You get moments within a game and glimpses of the future core and you like it. You look at the results and you just blanch. The Sabres are 1-6 in overtime and barely had the puck in this extra session. They've lost an NHL-high seven games when leading after two periods. That's a ton of points left on the table.
"There's going to be ups and downs in the year," said winger Alex Tuch. "Obviously that's a downer. It's a find-it, fix-it, forget-about-it mentality. Learn from it, understand how that feels to lose when giving up a lead and make sure that doesn't happen next time."
There have been too many next times this season. The Sabres are getting closer when you look within games. You don't see it in the standings because they simply don't finish.
"You look at the positives all you want and at the end of the day, we didn't get the job done," said Jeff Skinner, on a 31-goal pace after netting No. 14. "Moving forward, we have to sort of take both with us. The fact that we're able to get up in the game and establish that lead is something we should focus on as much as the fact that we need to close those games out. Obviously not the result (they want). We've got to keep pushing here."
