Cats Stats: Short, quick passes offer path to prosperity for QB Fifita, Arizona offense

If Arizona’s offense against Houston looked different to you, it wasn’t your imagination.

The Wildcats took a different approach in the passing game, and it was highly effective.

Whether that was the byproduct of a specific matchup or offensive coordinator Seth Doege finding the sweet spot for quarterback Noah Fifita remains to be seen. But there’s plenty of data to suggest that the way Arizona attacked Houston is the way it should attack everyone as long as Fifita is behind center.

That will be our area of focus in this week’s “Cats Stats” as the UA prepares for a critical game at Colorado on Saturday. We’ll talk a lot about average depth of target (ADOT) and time to throw (TTT) — two metrics that show where a quarterback is throwing the ball and how quickly he’s getting it out of his hand.

Fifita had an ADOT of 4.0 yards against Houston, according to Pro Football Focus. That was easily his lowest mark of the season. It was also a career low since Fifita became the starting quarterback in 2023.

Fifita’s previous low this year was 9.7 yards against Iowa State. His season-long ADOT of 9.9 yards is the fourth highest in the Big 12 among qualifying quarterbacks behind Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby (10.4), Houston’s Conner Weigman (10.0) and Iowa State’s Rocco Becht (10.0). That figure is also a career high for Fifita. His ADOT was 8.7 yards in 2024 and 7.8 in ’23.

What changed against Houston — a game in which Fifita tied a UA record by completing 92.3% of his passes?

Part of it was simply taking what the defense was giving. Offensive coordinator Seth Doege said the Cougars basically didn’t cover bubble screens. Arizona took advantage of that multiple times.

Passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage accounted for 26.9% of Fifita’s chartable attempts, per PFF. That was also easily a season high (previous: 18.4% vs. BYU). Fifita went 7 of 7 for 49 yards on those throws.

Fifita’s season-long rate for passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage is 14% — well below last season’s 21.6%. It was 24.2% in 2023, which also happened to be Fifita’s best season.

Fifita did even more damage against Houston in the 0- to 9-yard range. He went 13 of 14 for 107 yards and one touchdown. Those attempts accounted for a season-high 53.8% of his total allotment.

Fifita eclipsed 50% one previous time this season, at Iowa State. He threw 52.1% of his passes in that 0-9 area that night and thrived, completing 21 of 25 for 121 yards and one touchdown. He averaged only 4.84 yards per attempt, but that was due mostly to Iowa State’s elite tackling after the catch (60 total YAC on all passes).

For the season, Fifita has thrown 42.8% of his passes in the 0-9 range, much closer to what he did in 2023 (40.3%) than ’24 (34.9%).

Dearth of deep shots

Fifita did not have a single pass attempt of 20-plus yards against Houston — the only time that’s happened in 28 career starts. He did look downfield a handful of times, but those plays never materialized.

Considering how effective and efficient Fifita was against the Cougars, it would behoove Doege to dial up more plays in those short-to-intermediate areas. We’re not suggesting he completely abandon the downfield passing game; if defensive backs don’t have to worry about getting beat deep, Arizona would be easier to defend. But giving Fifita more “easy” throws that keep the offense on schedule and/or move the chains would play to his strengths.

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Further proof can be found during that ’23 campaign. Fifita’s previous high mark for completion percentage in a start was 79.1% at Washington State on Oct. 14, 2023. He nearly matched it in his next two appearances, connecting on 78.1% against Oregon State and UCLA.

Fifita’s ADOTs in those games were 4.4, 6.1 and 6.4 yards — three of the five lowest of his career.

It’s logical — obvious, even — that you’ll have a higher completion percentage if you throw most of your passes a short distance. This season, Fifita has completed 100% of his passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage; 80.2% in the 0-9 range; 56.9% in the 10-19 range; and 36.4% with 20-plus air yards. Those numbers are consistent, for the most part, with the previous two seasons.

Fifita has plenty of arm strength to throw deep, and those plays are relatively risk-free. He has six touchdowns and zero interceptions on 33 attempts of 20-plus yards.

Timing is everything

It’s also logical — obvious, even — that those plays will take longer to develop. One of Doege and Fifita’s goals this season was to lower Fifita’s average time to throw (TTT), which is intended to measure how quickly the quarterback gets the ball out — not how much time the offensive line provides him to do so.

Fifita’s TTT this season is the same as last season — 3.14 seconds. He “led” the Big 12 in that category a year ago and ranks second this year behind upcoming foe Kaidon Salter (3.26) of Colorado.

Ideally, you’d like that number to be in the 2.50-2.75 range — which Fifita achieved in 2023 (2.55). Sorsby’s TTT this year is 2.85 seconds. Weigman’s is 2.70. Becht’s is 2.67.

Fifita’s TTT against Houston was 2.89 seconds, a season low. His career low: 2.36 seconds in that ’23 blowout win vs. Washington State.

As you would expect, TTT correlates to ADOT. Against Houston, Fifita’s TTT on throws behind the line of scrimmage was 2.17 seconds. It was 2.15 seconds on throws in the 0- to 9-yard range and 3.65 in the 10-19 range.

Sometimes, TTT can be misleading. Fifita has improved immensely at buying time outside the pocket and creating plays. That is a valuable skill.

But, in general, you want your quarterback to get the ball out on time. It helps the offensive line, and it gives receivers a better chance to make yards after the catch.

Fifita’s season-low TTT vs. Houston was undoubtedly tied to his career-low ADOT. It also could be an indicator that he’s starting to trust what he’s seeing and what Doege is trying to teach him.

“He’s just getting more comfortable,” Doege said. “I do think he trusts me. I think he’s just starting to trust the scheme more ... and knowing that if he just follows his reads, his footwork, his progression, it’s gonna look like it did (at Houston).

“I was really proud of him. I do think he’s just progressed in the offense. He’s starting to trust the receivers, the timing. It’s a process. It’s a new scheme. As much as all of us, including myself, wanted it to just overnight happen, it takes some time. I think he’s starting to really feel it and play well.”