Michael Lev: Pressure’s on UA coach Brent Brennan — but not as much as some of his Big 12 peers

College football talking season is in full swing.

The Big 12 and SEC have held their Media Days. The ACC and Big Ten are on deck. The remarks have ranged from the banal to the bizarre. (Really, Mike Gundy? That’s your take on your star player getting arrested for DUI?)

Brent Brennan and the Arizona Wildcats contingent made a favorable first impression on their new friends and rivals in Las Vegas. Brennan, AD Desireé Reed-Francois and others shared their story of family, unity and sticking together when the program easily could have splintered. It’s an uplifting tale, to be sure.

“There’s a special thing brewing,” Reed-Francois said, as chronicled by my colleague Justin Spears, “and you can feel it.”

In his opening statement on the dais, Brennan noted “all kinds of excitement” and the “tremendous momentum” surrounding UA football. Moments later, Brennan referred to the “incredible responsibility” he has in shepherding the program his mentor, Dick Tomey, once led.

Brennan gets it.

The first-year coach understands that talk is one thing, results are another. He knows he needs to produce immediately — that the narrative can flip in a heartbeat.

I promise this is the one and only time I will make this comparison, but this offseason feels a bit like 2018, the last time expectations for UA football were sky high. Unlike Kevin Sumlin, though, Brennan has done everything right up to this point.

Brennan deftly prevented a mass exodus of veteran players. He wisely kept elements of the previous playbook. He smartly hired Duane Akina as defensive coordinator. He aggressively extended Arizona’s recruiting into Big 12 territory.

This has to be one of the smoothest coaching transitions of all time. The vibes are unrelentingly positive. It’s all very promising.

But Brennan has a high bar to clear. The 2023 Wildcats set a standard that will be difficult to sustain. They became just the fourth UA team to win double-digit games. Thanks to Brennan and veteran leaders such as Noah Fifita, Tetairoa McMillan, Jonah Savaiinaea and Jacob Manu, that team returns largely intact and should be the first UA club to be ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 since 2015.

That squad, beset by injuries to key players, followed up a 10-4 season by going 7-6. If the 2024 Wildcats finish around .500 — for whatever reason — it will be a major disappointment.

That possibility, however remote, got me to thinking: How much pressure is Brennan really under?

It’s certainly greater than anything he ever faced at San Jose State — although he might argue that figuring out how to feed his players and having to practice over 300 miles away during the pandemic was real pressure.

No one expects Brennan to lead Arizona to a national championship. But contending for a Big 12 championship is a realistic goal.

The same could be said for half a dozen teams in the conference, maybe more. Brennan isn’t the only one who’ll be feeling pressure this season. I took a stab at ranking all 16 Big 12 coaches in that regard.

Criteria include expectations for 2024, recent program history and prior coaching record:

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1. Deion Sanders, Colorado: No one has talked the talk more than Coach Prime. His Buffaloes walked the walk for three games last year before faceplanting. He turned the roster over again. He might have two top-10 picks in son Shedeur and Travis Hunter. It’s time to back up the bluster.

2. Dave Aranda, Baylor: The Bears have been trending in the wrong direction. After posting a 12-2 record in 2021, Aranda’s first year, they’ve gone 6-7 and 3-9. Another sub-.500 season could get Aranda fired.

3. Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati: This was a weird hire to begin with after Satterfield barely cleared .500 in four years at Louisville. Then the Bearcats went 3-9 on his watch, including a 1-8 mark in the Big 12. Several coaches have proved you can win at UC. How patient will the administration be if Satterfield doesn’t?

4. Neal Brown, West Virginia: No coach in the Big 12 entered the 2023 season with a hotter seat than Brown. He cooled it by going 9-4 — just his second winning mark in five seasons in Morgantown. It’ll heat up again if the Mountaineers backslide.

5. Kalani Sitake, BYU: Starting with 2020, these are the Cougars’ win totals over the past four seasons: 11, 10, 8, 5. Like the other ’23 newbies, they struggled to make the transition to the Big 12. Another 2-7 conference record won’t cut it.

6. Sonny Dykes, TCU: Surprised to see Dykes this high just two years removed from a national runner-up finish? Well, LSU fired Ed Orgeron less than two years after going 15-0. It can happen that fast. Another 5-7 season will cause a freakout in Fort Worth.

7. Brent Brennan, Arizona: The Wildcats are brimming with high-end talent, they’ve shored up their depth and their schedule is manageable. Everything is in place for Brennan to succeed. Now he has to prove he’s up to the challenge.

8. Kenny Dillingham, ASU: Dillingham will be given a decent-sized leash after inheriting a mess from the previous staff. But if the Sun Devils don’t show signs of progress after going 3-9 in his first season, the blazing Valley sun won’t be the only heat he’ll feel.

9. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State: Gundy is the winningest coach in OSU history — a made man in Stillwater. He’s at no risk of losing his job if the Cowboys regress to their 2022 form (7-6). But expectations are lofty coming off a 10-4 campaign with a ton of starters returning.

10. Matt Campbell, Iowa State: Campbell has turned the Cyclones into consistent winners — and himself into an annual candidate for other jobs. But is 7-6 still good enough for a program with a Top 25 ceiling?

11. Guz Malzahn, UCF: After back-to-back nine-win seasons, the Knights slipped to 6-7 (3-6) in their first year in the Big 12. Malzahn has recruited well, though, raising the talent level in Orlando — and expectations along with it.

12. Joey McGuire, Texas Tech: Since the departure of Mike Leach in 2009, the Red Raiders have peaked at eight wins (four times). McGuire is 15-11 through two seasons. He has recruited well, and TTU has a robust NIL program. That ratchets up the pressure a bit.

13. Chris Klieman, Kansas State: Klieman is a rarity — someone who successfully succeeded a legend (Bill Snyder). He has the KSU program in a great place, posting records of 8-5 or better in four of five seasons (the COVID year being the exception). There’s no reason to think the Wildcats won’t continue on that trajectory under Klieman’s leadership.

14. Willie Fritz, Houston: Fritz is in his first season at Houston, where he’s facing what amounts to a near-total rebuild after the up-and-down Dana Holgorsen regime. Fritz will be given at least two years to get the Cougars going in the right direction. Investments have been made to boost the program’s profile.

15. Lance Leipold, Kansas: Leipold is a borderline miracle worker, having lifted one of the nation’s losingest programs (three or fewer wins annually from 2010-21) into the Top 25 in three years’ time. Even with elevated expectations, Leipold faces little to no pressure in Lawrence.

16. Kyle Whittingham, Utah: If Gundy is a made man, Whittingham is the Godfather. With Utah having named his successor (DC Morgan Scalley), Whittingham is likely nearing the end of his tenure. His legacy is secure.