It was such an uncommon occurrence — so rare, so bizarre — that it caught Arizona coach Brent Brennan off guard.
When informed after the Wildcats’ 22-10 victory over NAU this past Saturday that his team had gone 0 for 10 on third downs, Brennan practically gasped.
“Oh my goodness,” he interjected. “I didn’t know it was that bad. Oh, that hurts.”
He added: “Obviously, we're gonna have trouble beating anybody if we're (doing) that. So that's something that we have to do a little work on.”
Arizona was able to defeat NAU despite not converting a third down in a game for the first time in nearly 21 years. A similar showing is unlikely to produce a similar result in Friday’s game at No. 14 Kansas State.
How does something like that happen against an FCS foe — or any opponent? What can the Wildcats do to fix it?
We’ll try to answer those questions in this week’s “Cats Stats.” But first, a little bit of history on inept third-down performances.
Arizona hadn’t gotten shut out on third down since Oct. 4, 2003. That 30-7 loss at Washington State — in which the UA went 0 for 13 on third down — was the Wildcats’ first game after the firing of John Mackovic. Those were some of the program’s darkest days.
Since then, Arizona has had five instances in which it converted only one third down in a game. Likewise, the Wildcats have limited opponents to one third-down conversion on five occasions over that same time frame.
Oddly, the last time the former happened was against NAU last year. In that game, the UA offense had only five third-down opportunities.
Even weirder: Arizona has converted just 4 of 29 third downs — 13.8% — in its past three matchups against NAU, dating to 2021. In all other games over the past four seasons, the Wildcats have converted 41.7% of their third downs.
We’ve delved into the topic of third downs in the past in this space, and one conclusion is inescapable: A team’s success — or failure — on third down directly corresponds to how it fares on first and second down. The more yards you need to convert, the harder it is to do so.
Arizona coach Brent Brennan watches his team during the Wildcats’ opener against New Mexico on Aug. 31 at Arizona Stadium. The UA converted 8 of 12 third downs that night before going 0 of 10 vs. NAU.
Arizona thrived on third down in the opener against New Mexico, going 8 for 12. The Wildcats’ average to go against the Lobos was 5.8 yards. Five of their attempts required 4 or fewer yards. They went 4 for 5 in those “third-and-short” situations.
Arizona’s average to go against NAU was 8.6 yards. The Wildcats had only two third-and-shorts.
Here are the results of every UA third-down attempt last week:
First quarter
• Third-and-goal from the NAU 4-yard line: Noah Fifita is sacked for an 11-yard loss.
• Third-and-6, UA 36: Fifita completes a 3-yard pass to Tyler Powell.
• Third-and-8, NAU 45: Fifita is sacked for a 5-yard loss.
Second quarter
• Third-and-10, UA 25: Fifita scrambles for 4 yards.
• Third-and-9, NAU 30: Incomplete pass to Jeremiah Patterson.
Third quarter
• Third-and-16, NAU 49: Fifita completes a 14-yard pass to Patterson.
• Third-and-goal, NAU 9: Incomplete pass to Tetairoa McMillan.
Fourth quarter
• Third-and-12, NAU 47: Incomplete pass to McMillan.
• Third-and-4, NAU 40: Quali Conley runs for a 5-yard loss.
• Third-and-8, UA 46: Conley runs for 4 yards.
A few notes on those plays:
1. They don’t include a third-and-8 in the third quarter that saw Fifita get sacked. He was facemasked on the play, giving Arizona a first down by penalty (which doesn’t count as a conversion in college football).
2. Fifita was sacked or pressured on half of the eight pass plays.
3. The last third-down attempt was the last play of the game. The Wildcats were running out the clock at that point.
As these captures from the Wildcats’ matchup with NAU Saturday (streamed via ESPN+) illustrate, Arizona had trouble communicating in pass protection against NAU — twice leaving tailback Quali Conley (7) to block two oncoming rushers.
The single biggest issued we observed upon re-watching every offensive snap — third down or otherwise — was poor communication in pass protection. On two of the third-and-long scenarios, NAU showed blitz but ended up sending only three rushers. In both instances, the five UA offensive linemen slid to a side where only one rusher was coming — leaving Conley to block two.
Communication will be even more challenging at KSU. That’s why Arizona practiced with ear-splitting white noise blaring through speakers this week.
The Wildcats should have veteran center Josh Baker back, and that will help a lot. Baker has logged 32 career starts. He has seen — and heard — it all.
The breakdowns in “pass pro” have made things difficult for Fifita, who was incredibly efficient on third downs last season. Fifita basically had the same completion percentage on third down (72.9) as he did on first (72.2) and second down (72.3) a year ago.
Fifita was also phenomenal in third-and-long situations. With 7-9 yards to go, he completed 18 of 22 passes — 81.8% - for 337 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. With 10-plus yards to go, he was 18 of 27 (66.7%) for 179 yards.
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita gets off his throw with the pocket closing down around him against Northern Arizona in the first quarter of the Wildcats' win over the Lumberjacks Saturday at Arizona Stadium.
So far this season — in an admittedly small sample size — Fifita is just a 50% passer on third downs (7 of 14) compared to 69.8% (30 of 43) on first and second downs. He’s 0 for 4 when needing 7-9 yards to convert and 3 for 5 when needing 10 or more.
Fifita’s numbers when pressured are a bit worrisome. He has completed just 4 of 13 passes (30.8%) with one touchdown and one interception, per Pro Football Focus. Last year he went 44 of 79 (55.7%) with seven TDs and two picks.
Reflecting on the third-down issues the Monday after the NAU game, Brennan cited two factors.
“It was a couple missed throws, missed opportunities. That part of it was really frustrating,” he said. “And sometimes when you're in those situations, you can kind of try and press. We’ve just got to relax, let the game come to us and execute the details of our assignment.”
Kansas State ranks 12th in the 16-team Big 12 in third-down defense through two games (36.7%). KSU ranked second last year (30.2%) and third in 2022 (34.0%).
