Back for Game 8, the Star presents “Lev it on the Field,” our unique look at Arizona’s upcoming football matchup and other happenings around the Pac-12 (and Big 12) through the eyes of UA beat reporter-turned-columnist Michael Lev. Away we go ...
Saturday likely will mark the last time Arizona and Oregon State face each other as members of the Pac-12 Conference. How much have things changed since the last time they met at Arizona Stadium?
Michael Lev is a senior writer/columnist for the Arizona Daily Star, Tucson.com and The Wildcaster.
The game took place on Nov. 2, 2019. The Wildcats had lost their previous three contests, leading then-UA coach Kevin Sumlin to fire defensive coordinator Marcel Yates and one of his assistants. Chuck Cecil stepped in as interim defensive coordinator. It did not go well that Saturday afternoon.
The Beavers shredded the Wildcats, accumulating 572 yards in a 56-38 victory. Arizona never got within a score in the second half.
Three coordinators and a ton of personnel changes later, the Wildcats have a legitimate defense. Led by Johnny Nansen, they have allowed 10 or fewer points three times this season, most recently in a 44-6 victory over Washington State (which defeated OSU 38-35 on Sept. 23). The last time Arizona surrendered 10 or less at least three times in the same campaign: 2010.
This Beavers team presents a different challenge than Washington, USC and WSU in that they run the ball often and well. OSU ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in rushing attempts per game (35.71), third in average per rush (5.46) and fourth in yards per game (195.14). Arizona is allowing 96 rushing yards per game and 3.04 yards per attempt, both top-four marks in the conference.
This isn’t 2019 anymore.
Oregon State coach Jonathan Smith walks the sideline during the second half of the Beavers’ game against Utah on Sept. 29, in Corvallis, Ore. Oregon State won 21-7.
Take that for data!
Oregon State is 23-10 over the past three seasons. The Beavers are 6-1 for the first time since 2013.
Pretty good, right?
Well, all of those achievements have raised widely respected OSU coach Jonathan Smith’s career winning percentage to ... .500.
Smith took on a legit rebuilding project when he became the Beavers’ coach on Nov. 29, 2017. Pre-transfer portal, a project of that magnitude would take years. Even with the portal, overnight transformations are rare.
Kudos to the OSU administration for having the patience to stick with Smith through the hard times. That commodity is too often in short supply.
Arizona is 6-4 in its past 10 games under Jedd Fisch. His overall record here is 11-22.
It’s a long road to .500.
(Rincon) Market report
Going up: Jonah Coleman
Similar to Noah Fifita at quarterback, you could make a case for Coleman remaining Arizona’s starting tailback even if Michael Wiley is able to return this week. Coleman has been that good. Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded Power Five running back, Coleman is averaging 5.08 yards per rushing attempt <&rdpEm>after contact</&rdpEm>. Against USC and WSU, he averaged 174 scrimmage yards per game and 8.5 yards per touch. Arizona has and will play more than one back, so there’s room in the backfield for Coleman, Wiley and others. That won’t fly at QB.
Arizona running back Jonah Coleman (3) forces his way upfield despite pursuit from UTEP safety Kobe Hylton (2), cornerback Torey Richardson (8) and cornerback AJ Odums (1) in the third quarter of the Wildcats’ 31-10 win at Arizona Stadium on Sept. 16.
Going down: Sign stealing
I’m completely on board with Fisch on this one: College football’s signal-callers on both sides of the ball should have radios inside their helmets, a la the NFL. It would eliminate the need for elaborate signaling from the sidelines — and the equally elaborate schemes to decipher those signals, one of which has given Connor Stalions his 15 minutes of fame and could spell major trouble for No. 2 Michigan, one of Fisch’s former employers. The NFL has utilized some version of the radio helmet since 1994. It’s long overdue.
A question from my X
Is UA’s run defense real or a desert mirage? — @CaribCat1912, via X/Twitter
The numbers we rattled off above suggest it’s the former, but I understand the question. The answer could be revealed Saturday night.
OSU is tied for 21st nationally in rushing. Every other FBS team Arizona has faced ranks between 65th (UTEP) and 127th (WSU).
Mississippi State had moderate success vs. Arizona (39 carries, 145 yards, 1 TD), but the Wildcats mostly stifled the Bulldogs after the first quarter.
UW ran effectively (26-111-4), but that isn’t the Huskies’ game. Likewise, USC (33-146-5), whose quarterback, Caleb Williams, accounted for 41 yards and three TDs.
The most telling stat, for me, is average allowed per rush. At 3.04 yards, Arizona is tied for 14th nationally — ahead of Alabama, Texas, Clemson and Oregon, to name a few. Even after adjusting for sacks, the Wildcats are surrendering less than 4 yards per carry (3.87). That’s exceptional in modern college football.
Threads
UCLA will don throwback uniforms for homecoming against Colorado, and they are amazing. The jerseys are sky blue and feature white numbers and white stripes on the shoulders. The hype video suggests they’ll be paired with gold pants and gold helmets, harking back to the Bruins’ glory days of the 1950s and ’60s. The homecoming “poster” on UCLA football’s X/Twitter feed featuring Joe Bruin doing a Heisman-like pose on a palm-tree-lined street is perfection.
What he said ...
“I’m gonna keep that ’til game time right now. I think they’re both ready to play, though. We’ll have to see how it’s all gonna end up. But right now they’re both gonna be dressed, both gonna be participating in warmups and both prepared regardless of who goes in.” — Fisch on Arizona’s QB situation
What he meant ...
“I know who’s starting. They know who’s starting. You can probably figure out who’s starting. But life is better with a little mystery, right? It’ll all become clear at 7:35 p.m. Saturday. I look forward to not having to answer this particular question from that point forward.”
The other side
Nick Daschel, via The Oregonian:
Oregon State defensive coordinator Trent Bray was asked earlier this week about his assessment of the Beavers’ defense through seven games.
Bray was coming off a bye week, with time to take a deep dive. Defensive coordinators can be difficult to satisfy.
And yet?
“There was a lot of really good stuff,” Bray said.
So much for the perception that Oregon State’s defense has significantly tumbled from a year ago. Truth is, even with Washington State having its way through the air, and California and UCLA running wild, this Beaver defense has held up.
In nine different defensive categories — scoring, rushing, passing, total, sacks, tackles for loss, takeaways, third down, 10-plus-yard plays — OSU is among the Pac-12′s top half in each one. Even last year’s defense can’t say that, though with the caveat that the Beavers have yet to face offensive juggernauts Washington and Oregon.
Pick to click (aka #fadelev)
There are five home underdogs in the Pac-12 this week. The most enticing among them: Arizona State (plus-6) vs. WSU. The Sun Devils have lost their past three games by a combined 14 points and gave UW fits for 60 minutes last week. They’ve continued to play hard for first-year coach Kenny Dillingham. This is by far their best chance to get a conference win before the Territorial Cup. I say they get it done. (season record: 5-2)
Oregon State quarterback DJ Uiagalelei watches his pass against Cal during the second half of the Beavers’ win Oct. 7 win in Berkeley, California.
One last thing
How good of a QB coach is Jonathan Smith?
D.J. Uiagalelei plateaued at Clemson. His overall numbers in 2022 look OK — 61.9% completion rate, 22-7 TD-INT ratio — but he struggled down the stretch. He had five touchdowns and five picks in his final six games, including an absolute clunker against South Carolina: 8 of 29 for 99 yards.
The previous season, Uiagalelei had just nine TD passes and 10 interceptions.
Under the tutelage of Smith and OC Brian Lindgren, Uiagalelei has a 15-4 TD-INT ratio and career-high marks in yards per attempt (8.9) and efficiency rating (158.9).
Smith has put the talented Uiagalelei in a position to succeed. He has helped rebuild his confidence.
That’s coaching.
Arizona football coach Jedd Fisch, speaking on Oct. 26, 2023, knew Connor Stalions, the Michigan staffer at the center of a sign-stealing scandal, but “he’s never been a part of Arizona football," adding, "he’s never been employed by Arizona football.” Fisch said the last time he spoke to Stalions was during Arizona’s spring game in 2021. (Justin Spears/Arizona Daily Star
