Michael Lev: Week 0 trap ensnared every favorite; Arizona Wildcats won't fall into it

If we learned one thing during college football’s so-called “Week 0,” it was this: There’s a non-zero chance your heavily favored team is ripe for an upset.

This past Saturday featured four games involving at least one FBS team. In all four instances, the underdog beat the spread — and it wasn’t even close.

Georgia Tech, getting 10.5 points, beat No. 10 Florida State outright. New Mexico — which visits Arizona on Saturday for the Wildcats’ season opener — was plus-13.5 at home vs. Montana State. The Lobos easily could have won; they lost 35-31.

Nevada, getting 27.5 points (!!!), had visiting SMU on the ropes before a New Mexico-esque fourth-quarter collapse that ended in a 29-24 Mustangs miracle. Finally, travel-troubled Delaware State hung with Hawaii for three quarters before getting shut out in the fourth and losing 35-14. The Hornets were catching 39.5, though. Never in doubt.

What do those results mean, if anything? Could what happened in Week 0 happen again in Week 1??

Let’s dive into this on two levels: macro (across college football) and micro (Arizona vs. New Mexico).

It’s seldom prudent to question the wisdom of the oddsmakers in Las Vegas. Those towering, glimmering hotels on The Strip didn’t pay for themselves.

That being said, it’s entirely possible that even Vegas isn’t sure how to assess the college football landscape at the outset of the season when teams undergo so much change in the offseason. When you combine the coaching carousel, the transfer portal and unfettered transferring, the annual turnover in this sport is massive.

New Mexico, for instance, brought in 42 transfers. That’s the third most nationally, per UNM media relations, behind Charlotte and Colorado (44 apiece). The Lobos are tied for 12th in total newcomers with 59. North Texas is No. 1 with 77.

I’m not sure the Mean Green’s coaching staff knows what it’s got, let alone Vegas.

Additionally, information about most college football teams isn’t as readily available as it is about NFL teams. College football doesn’t have reporters giving play-by-play accounts of 7-on-7 reps. It doesn’t have a preseason. It does have more than four times as many teams with rosters that are about twice as big.

So it’s not surprising that some of the opening spreads were out of whack. Nor should we be shocked to see at least a handful of “shockers” this weekend.

Unless you count monsoon lightning in the mountains, it’s not going to transpire in Tucson.

With all due respect to the Lobos, who played their hearts out for new coach Bronco Mendenhall, they were fortunate to be in position to win last week. Montana State outgained New Mexico by more than 200 yards (567-338). The Bobcats average 7.2 yards per play to the Lobos’ 6.1. Montana State converted 6 of 12 third downs to New Mexico’s 1 of 8.

So how were the Lobos up 31-14 entering the fourth quarter? They had not one but two scoop-and-score touchdowns — a highly unusual occurrence. The Bobcats, meanwhile, were 0 for 3 on fourth downs, including two attempts inside the UNM 35-yard line.

While it’s true, as UA coach Brent Brennan said, that the Lobos were “one catch away from it being over,” it’s also true that they didn’t control the line of scrimmage. If the Bobcats rushed for 362 yards against the Lobos, how many might the Wildcats accumulate?

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Another reason that an upset or near-upset is unlikely to happen to Arizona: The simple fact that Week 0 played out the way it did.

No matter how much the coaches preach it, no message about respecting an underdog opponent is as powerful as seeing that team and others like it scare the you-know-what out of a favorite and its fan base.

“You think we’re infallible? Just look at what happened to Florida State. Look at what almost happened to SMU.”

“It’s definitely something we’ve talked about,” Brennan said. “It’s all about how you prepare and what your mindset is going into it.”

Finally — and critically — the Lobos aren’t a complete mystery anymore. After watching them nearly win as 13.5-point underdogs, Vegas is giving them zero credit for their Week 0 performance: They’re 31.5-point ’dogs against the Cats as of this writing.

Interestingly, UA coaches had differing opinions on whether New Mexico having already played would aid Arizona’s cause.

Before Week 0, I asked QB coach Lyle Moevao if it’d be advantageous for the Wildcats to see the Lobos in action before facing them.

“Very,” he said. “I think that goes across the whole country. Anytime there’s a game before yours ... it always gives you something that you can look at that’s more recent. Their defensive coordinator is probably going to be going back and watching coach (Dino) Babers, what he was doing at Syracuse, what we were doing in San Jose, and now he’s trying to figure out what’s going to show up.

“But until you actually see a game, there’s always going to be that question mark in terms of scouting another team. So to be able to have that in our hands going into that first week will definitely be something that we use.”

Babers, the offensive coordinator, went the other way.

“I look at it totally different. I look at it that they’re getting an opportunity to play a full football game, and your most growth is between the first and second game, every year,” said Babers, who’s been a head coach for multiple programs.

“They’re going to get an opportunity to see themselves play. They’ll be able to critique it. The kids learn more from watching themselves than from watching others, and they will have immense growth from whatever we see in that tape to what shows up (at) Arizona Stadium.”

Defensive coordinator Duane Akina cast the deciding vote, landing on Moevao’s side. I lean that way, too. Game film mitigates the variables and reduces the uncertainty.

That doesn’t mean there’s a 0% chance Arizona will fall into the Week 0 trap. UA fans have been disappointed before.

But this year, with this team in this particular matchup, I wouldn’t worry. When it’s all zeroes on the clock, the Wildcats will be comfortably ahead.