I learned a long time ago there is nothing to be gained by indulging in “the boy who cried wolf” game of hype. So, when I tell you (as have other meteorologists) the Saturday storm looks like the real deal for widespread wind damage and serious lakeshore flooding, I hope you won’t take the warnings lightly.
Early on Friday, the Buffalo National Weather Service elevated the high wind watch to a warning for all but Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.
What I have projected – as well as others, including the NWS – is well-based in a sea of models. Here, for example, is a peak gust forecast by the European model for around 7 p.m. Saturday.
Here is an even more ominous peak gust forecast by a higher (more detailed) resolution model, called the HRRR.
It appears the strongest winds will occur following passage of a strong cold front attached to a powerful and still-strengthening low pressure system during the midafternoon into early evening. As of this writing, the current low near the Great Lakes is a modest system slated to explosively deepen when an upper level streak of high-velocity winds overruns the circulation of the low. That streak can be observed in GOES water vapor imagery.
The central pressure in the low will plummet by Saturday afternoon, tightening the pressure gradient and providing Western New York with the potential for the most serious high-wind event we’ve had in quite some time. Prior to the cold frontal passage, strong southerly winds will develop before Saturday morning, particularly along the Lake Erie shoreline south of Buffalo, where some gusts to 50 mph will be likely by dawn.
Early on Saturday some briefly heavy gusty showers and thunderstorms will be likely as well.
The strong downslope southerly wind ahead of the cold front will provide some dry time and boost high temperatures enough to set a new record. The old record for Saturday is 61, and Buffalo should reach 64-66 ahead of the cold front. The intensification of the low passing to our north and west is evident in all models, with an unusually deep central pressure.
For those of you who are weather hobbyists, you know we don’t see 975-millibar lows very often. The rest of you will just have to take my word for it.
Following the cold frontal passage between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m., southerly winds will veer to southwesterly, coming up the full fetch of Lake Erie. That smooth surface lessens friction for the low-level winds, and allows acceleration all the way up the lake, resulting in those high-wind forecasts. These are modeled average winds in knots, not stronger peak gusts, but the wind vanes will give you the general idea of late-afternoon conditions.
Winds of this magnitude will cause numerous power outages, downed tree limbs and trees, and certainly pose a threat to many holiday decorations. Yes, it’s a lot of work, but you may want to consider taking them down until the storm passes. Indoors, you’ll want to keep some emergency lighting nearby – not candles – and take other precautions should your neighborhood suffer a lengthier outage.
As for Lake Erie, serious flooding will occur along the shoreline from Chautauqua County through the Buffalo waterfront to the upper Niagara River.
A seiche, or push of rising waters from the southwest to the northeast, will likely bring lakeshore waters to 10 feet above low water datum, or 2 feet above flood stage.
Following all this, Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny with above average temperatures reaching the low 40s, and a 20-30 mph southwest wind.
If you've invested in a trip to Tampa to see what gives with our Bills, the weather there will be lovely. Sunday will be partly sunny with a high around 80, and a very light north wind. Temps will slowly fall through the 70s after sunset.
Speaking of above average temperatures, they will be with us most days well into December, with warm upper level high pressure ridging in the East. The American model upper air ensemble for Christmas Eve does not have the look of any cold in the East.
Having said that, what can’t be foreseen for Christmas week this far in advance would be some quick-hitting waves in the flow that could still deliver briefly colder weather and even some snow. Our probabilities for a White Christmas do look lower than normal climatology, but it is too soon to say the odds are prohibitive. In the meantime, the Climate Prediction Center outlook in the next two weeks matches up with the ensembles and, for now, does not bode well for skiers and ski resorts in the near future.
What I wrote about on Wednesday and in several other Buffalo News articles, however, still holds for the end of December into midwinter: “A persistent warm pattern can still break down briefly if a strong, short wave of low pressure crosses the country, delivering a quick, wintry hit. And, nothing is to say this warm ridging in the East will persist indefinitely, and no polar vortex disruption will occur toward January. In fact, seasonal forecast specialist Dr. Judah Cohen sees a few hints such a disruption may occur later in the month in the form of what he calls a 'stretchy' polar vortex, rather than a strong circumpolar vortex.”
A disrupted polar vortex, which can weaken and deliver a cold blast to the south into the U.S., cannot be reliably predicted more than a couple of weeks in advance.
