Douglas York, left, and David Mehl, Republican members of the Independent Redistricting Commission, confer on changes they want in legislative and congressional maps for the coming decade.

 Howard Fischer, Capitol Media Services

PHOENIX — Partisan members of the Independent Redistricting Commission are making last-minute efforts to draw maps that would help their political parties through the 2030 election.

Each is doing so under the banner of balancing populations among congressional and legislative districts. And they are rushing against a Wednesday, Dec. 22, deadline to have final plans.

The alterations have definite implications.

For example, Republican commissioners David Mehl and Douglas York demanded that a corner be chipped out of what was Legislative District 23, which runs from Yuma along the international border to Tucson and north into Goodyear, and put into adjacent LD25.

About 600 people live there. One of them is state Sen. Sine Kerr, a Republican whose house is in the area.

The change moves Kerr from having to run for reelection in what would be a district with about a 15-point Democratic voter registration edge, to one where Republicans have a 25-point edge.

On the congressional side, Republicans also want to move Democratic areas in Maricopa County from CD1, that could be considered competitive, into CD3, which already has a 3-1 Democratic registration edge. They balance that by moving Republicans from CD8, where the GOP leads, into CD1.

Democrats are doing the same sorts of things and finding ways to give their own party’s candidates more of a chance of getting elected, whether to Congress or the Arizona Legislature.

The big flash point for them is how to divide Tucson between CD7 on the west side and CD6 on the east side.

A split needs to take place, because of the population. But the question becomes where to draw that line.

Democrats have been pushing for a line that starts at the Rillito River and runs south along Campbell Avenue to Broadway, then turns east out to Pantano Road, then south to Golf Links Road, before going west.

That would put more Democrats living in midtown Tucson into CD6.

They aren’t needed in CD7, where Democrats already have a 2-1 edge. But they could make all the difference in CD6, which would become a competitive district.

Republicans prefer pushing midtown Tucson into CD7.

The district is expected to get a lot of attention from candidates because Democratic U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, who has represented close to the same area, is not seeking reelection. That creates an open seat and opportunities for either major party.

Other changes pushed by Democratic commissioners appear not to have direct partisan implications.

Shereen Lerner said the Pascua Yaqui reservation does not belong, as proposed, in the same legislative district as the Tohono O’odham Nation. She wants it to be part of the district that includes downtown Tucson.

Both areas already are heavily Democratic.

Lerner also wants other changes, like the line between south Scottsdale and Tempe, to create more competitive districts.

Otherwise, she said, the legislative map favors Republicans in 17 of the 30 districts, which she said should not be the case given the closeness of party registration numbers.

Mehl, however, said he doesn’t read the numbers that way. He said five of the legislative districts could be considered “highly competitive,’’ with voter registration margins within four points.

Erika Neuberg, who chairs the panel, said that’s important. “The narrower the vote spread, the more opportunity for a candidate to break out and win.”

Neuberg, the sole independent on the five-member commission, said even if a district tends to lean in one direction or the other, the fact that registration is close means lawmakers have to remain “accountable’’ to all residents, not just those of their own party.

Neuberg brushed aside consideration of the potential effects on the overall makeup of the state House and Senate for the coming decade.

“That’s not something that’s within our constitutional purview,’’ said Neuberg.

Racial considerations are, however. A preliminary version of the plan, backed by Republicans, would legislatively separate Laveen, an area of southwest Phoenix, from the rest of south Phoenix, arguing that the former has more in common with agricultural areas to the west.

But Democrats say the move would divide the Black community which, if left in the same district, would constitute 19% of the vote.

Some changes are being pushed for potentially less obvious reasons.

Still in flux is whether Casa Grande belongs in CD6 — the one that runs from midtown Tucson to the southeast border of the state — or is a better fit with CD2.

That district encompasses Florence and Coolidge. But the sprawling district also takes in Gila, Apache, Navajo, Coconino and Yavapai counties.

One of the last issues likely to be resolved has to do with the legislative district that encompasses six tribes in northern and eastern Arizona.

No matter how the district is drawn, it is likely to send Democrats to the state Capitol. But the question becomes which Democrats.

Neuberg pointed out that when lines were drawn after the 2000 election, the district also included Flagstaff. That enabled “white liberals’’ living off the reservation, she said, to nominate candidates of their choice, such as Tom Chabin and Kirkpatrick, who represented that part of the state at that time.

A decade later, the redistricting process moved Flagstaff into a district with Sedona and the Verde Valley, with the White Mountain communities added instead to the district with tribes. That led to the nomination and election of Democrats living on the Navajo reservation.

Mehl and York favor keeping Flagstaff in the tribal-dominated district.

But there is a potential legal impediment. The federal Voting Rights Act prohibits election changes that would prevent minorities — in this case, tribal members — from having the opportunity to elect someone of their choice.

Neuberg, who holds the swing vote, said if leaving Flagstaff in the district undermines the ability to elect Native Americans, she cannot support it.

She said congressional lines need to be finished by the end of Tuesday. That gives Wednesday to make minor adjustments to comply with federal laws that require virtually identical populations of 794,600 in each of the nine districts.

Legislative districts are supposed to each have about 238,000 residents. But commissioners have more leeway in those lines, particularly when they create population disparities to comply with other needs such as protecting minority voting rights.

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