Be careful what you wish for.
That’s the lesson emerging from the GOP primary in Legislative District 17.
Sen. Vince Leach, an incumbent from a different district, worked behind the scenes to ensure his home area of Saddlebrooke was included in the new LD 17, a Republican-dominated district wrapping around Tucson from the northwest side to the southeast.
He got what he wanted — Saddlebrooke became part of the district that is otherwise almost completely in Pima County.
Republican candidates for Arizona Senate, LD17: Vince Leach and Justine Wadsack.
And now he’s on the verge of losing. With almost all the votes counted, Justine Wadsack was leading Leach by 1,493 votes — a margin of 4.75 percentage points.
And all the votes from Pinal County, Leach’s stronghold, have already been counted.
Research by a Democratic-aligned firm last year showed that in October 2021, Leach’s senate staff began working on a letter to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission, arguing in favor of a Republican-leaning district that wrapped around Tucson and included Saddlebrooke.
The letter went out on the letterhead of the mayor of Marana, Ed Honea, and was signed by Honea, Leach and four others. The Southern Arizona Leadership Council also weighed in with their support.
Before long, LD 17 became the most overtly gerrymandered district in Arizona.
The chair of the redistricting commission, Erika Neuberg, even acknowledged out loud she was trying to draw a district for Southern Arizona Republicans, although partisan groups are not supposed to be considered “communities of interest” under the law.
“I am focused on ensuring some accountability in the Tucson area for right-of-center folks, a community of interest, to not be neglected,” she said.
It wasn’t just Leach who got what he wanted, but the Southern Arizona Leadership Council as well. They had claimed that they needed more Republican representation in the Tucson area so that they could get proposals more easily considered in the Republican-controlled chambers at the Capitol.
Of course, they already had Republican representation — Rep. Mark Finchem, for one, and Leach for another. It just wasn’t representation that would carry their water.
Now they could find themselves in a similar situation. The three winners of the GOP primaries for House and Senate in LD 17 were part of a slate that called themselves the “Arizona Freedom Team”: Cory McGarr, Rachel Jones and Wadsack.
These are not corporate Republicans in the mold of Gov. Doug Ducey, the kind that are more likely to concern themselves with the priorities of the council, which is made up of local CEOs and other business leaders. They are more like Finchem — Trump-aligned conservatives.
Wadsack herself has dabbled with the QAnon conspiracy theory and stormed a Vail school board meeting last year protesting mask mandates, although she has no children in the district.
With Leach out of the way, the Democrats are gunning for the seat now, giving stronger backing to candidate Mike Nickerson than they probably would have otherwise.
“I think Mike can beat her — easily,” Pima County Democratic Party Chair Bonnie Heidler said. “A pastor, a moderate, a sane person — come on.”
Pima County Republican Chair Shelley Kais did not return an email or phone call seeking comment before deadline.
So, for the Southern Arizona Leadership Council, too, the lesson may be — be careful what you wish for.
Spend big, still lose
Democrats in Legislative District 18 grew increasingly surprised as mailers supporting senate candidate Morgan Abraham filled their mailboxes this summer.
They weren’t just from Abraham’s well-funded campaign, which had spent about $243,000 as of the last campaign-finance report. Beyond that, outside groups have spent at least $107,000 supporting Abraham, as well.
They were funded in large measure by homebuilding and other real estate interests, as well as the Arizona Chamber of Commerce. Abraham runs a real-estate investment firm focused on affordable housing.
Abraham has already been serving in the Legislature, because he was appointed to serve out the state House term of Stephanie Stahl-Hamilton, who had replaced Kirsten Engel in the state Senate, when she stepped down to run for Congress. But he served in a different chamber, representing an old district.
Sundareshan
Priya Sundareshan, a faculty member focused on environmental law at the UA Law School, had spent a comparatively paltry $64,000 as of the last report. But she was leading Abraham by 2,686 votes in the latest tally — a margin of about 8 percentage points — and Abraham has conceded.
Abraham received some pushback for his financial support, including a letter by former state legislator Tom Chabin to the precinct committeemen in the district, which is heavily Democratic. Chabin accused Abraham of being allied with utility companies and urged support for Sundareshan. That caused its own stir in the party.
Now Sundareshan will face Republican Stan Cain in the general election.
Hernandi lose one
The three Hernandez siblings — Daniel, Consuelo and Alma, who call themselves the “Hernandi” — have run up a remarkable record of wins in their parallel political careers.
Daniel Hernandez
Daniel Hernandez started in 2011 by winning election to the Sunnyside school board, then the state Legislature in 2016. Alma Hernandez won election to the state House in 2018, and their sister Consuelo won election to the Sunnyside school board in 2018 and now the state House.
She led the three Democrat candidates in Legislative District 21 with 46% of the votes, to second-place finisher Stahl-Hamilton’s 33% and third-place finisher Akanni Oyegbola’s 22%. The top two move on.
Alma Hernandez and her current seat mate in the state House, Andres Cano, were the only two Democratic candidates in the new Legislative District 20.
So, though the pioneer Hernandez politician will be out of office soon, for the first time in a decade, his sisters will carry on the family tradition in the state House.
“For us, Tuesday night was both good and bad,” Alma Hernandez said by text message. “But at the end of the day, public service for our family isn’t about winning or losing.”
