Because Arizona gained the No. 1 spot in the sixth Associated Press Top 25 poll of the season earlier this week, the Wildcats are getting some extra buzz among fans, a more prominent spot in media mentions, and maybe even a little cachet in recruiting.
But historically speaking, the Wildcats had plenty of wriggle room in the poll to still get in line for what matters most in college basketball, because every NCAA Tournament champion for the past 21 years has been ranked among the top 12 teams when the sixth weekly AP poll comes out every December.
Since the historical trend was first noted by former ESPN analyst John Gasaway two seasons ago, the sixth poll of the season has become known for its predictive power more so than any poll taken down the stretch of the regular season.
The reasons aren’t entirely clear, but likely have to do with the fact that teams have sorted themselves out somewhat by early December because they have already played several high-level games, many through early-season multi-team events or neutral-site showdowns, while the grind of (and perhaps overemphasis on) conference play hasn’t begun yet.
Also, since early-season and conference games count equally for NCAA Tournament seeding, those who do well over the first five weeks get a head start toward a better postseason placement.
That’s something UA didn’t have last season, when it was unranked at 4-4 during the sixth poll of the season. The Wildcats were playing like a potential Final Four contender during the Big 12 season, tying for third place in the conference race and reaching the Big 12 tournament final, but still wound up with a No. 4 seed in the East Region, a difficult tourney path that ultimately saw the Wildcats end their season against Duke in a Sweet 16 game at New Jersey.
The Wildcats were actually No. 1 in the sixth AP Top 25 poll of the 2023-24 season, having taken it over a week earlier after having beaten Duke, Michigan State and Wisconsin. While the Wildcats didn’t reach the Final Four that season, they did win the Pac-12 regular-season title and reach the Sweet 16 before losing to Clemson.
Notably, the champion in 2023-24, UConn, was in the fifth spot during that sixth poll, while runner-up Purdue was No. 3. The Boilermakers were actually the ones who kicked UA out of the top AP spot with a win on Dec. 16 in Indianapolis that season.
UConn forward Alex Karaban, left, and UConn guard Silas Demary Jr., right, pressure Arizona forward Koa Peat, center in UA's win on Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2025, in Storrs, Conn. The Wildcats and Huskies were both among the Top 12 teams in sixth weekly Associated Press Top 25 poll, a group that has included the last 21 NCAA champions.
This season, if history holds up, the national champion will come from a group headed by undefeated teams Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Iowa State. They finished in the top four spots Monday, when the Wildcats (8-0) received 33 of 60 first-place votes to move up from the No. 2 spot, while second-ranked Michigan (8-0) picked up 19 and third-ranked Duke (10-0) received seven.
Arizona's Big 12 counterpart, Iowa State (9-0), moved up six spots to No. 4 after winning at then-top-ranked Purdue 81-58, picking up one first-place vote in this week's poll as a result and suggesting the Big 12 race ahead could be supercharged, with four teams in the Top 10, and another two in the Top 25.
“I think Iowa State looked amazing,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said Saturday, after the Wildcats beat Auburn, 97-68. “We should throw them in the mix there.
"Maybe people aren't talking about them like they should, but I know they're really good. TJ (Otzelberger, Iowa State coach) has done an amazing job, and to go into Purdue and do what they did …. it's probably as impressive as anything anybody's done all season in college basketball.”
Other potential national title contenders based on the Week 12 poll: UConn (8-1) finished fifth in voting while Purdue (8-1) dropped from No. 1 to the No. 6 spot, followed by Houston, Gonzaga, Michigan State and BYU to round out the Top 10. Then, just behind No. 11 Louisville in that 12th spot is none other than Arizona’s next opponent, Alabama.
The Crimson Tide (7-2) already has two losses so far this season, but those were to Purdue and Gonzaga, while Alabama has beaten St. John’s, Illinois, Clemson and Maryland. The Tide will also get a chance to basically host the Wildcats at the semi-home site of Birmingham’s Legacy Arena on Saturday night.
“We know we have a really tough game against Alabama, who's obviously going to be battle tested,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said. “We're just going to stay focused on us and trying to go play really well next Saturday in a tough atmosphere in Birmingham.”
In making those comments, Lloyd was responding to Auburn coach Steven Pearl’s assessment that “there’s a pretty wide margin” between Arizona and Michigan, and the rest of the college basketball teams.
Lloyd said Pearl was entitled to his opinion, with the Tigers having lost to both the Wildcats and Wolverines, but went on about how many other dominant teams there are right now. On top of praising Iowa State, he rattled down a list of other top teams.
“Michigan's looked unbelievable, the little bit I've seen of them,” Lloyd said Saturday. “That UConn team we played is right there. They're really good, and even UCLA, let's not sleep on them. They're really good.
“And then, Florida is going to be right there. Duke looks really good. I was texting with Jon (Scheyer, Duke coach) today. I thought he did a great job managing that game. And Michigan State is formidable. There's a lot of good, really, really good teams, and you look what Gonzaga did last night against Kentucky…”
Gonzaga beat Kentucky by 35 points in a semi-away environment at Nashville. Michigan State has beaten four teams in KenPom’s Top 30. Duke has also beaten four of those 30 teams, sitting at 10-0 entering a game with Lipscomb on Tuesday.
UConn has beaten three Top 20 KenPom teams and hasn’t lost except for its Nov. 19 game with Arizona, when the Huskies were playing without two starters.
And Michigan crushed San Diego State, Auburn and Gonzaga in the Players Era Festival while also winning a road game at TCU, which received votes in this week’s AP Top 25.
All of those teams Lloyd mentioned, except Florida (18) and UCLA (25), were among the top 12 teams in the week six poll. There's a good chance everyone in the college basketball world will be talking about one of them again in April.
Rim shots
— Iowa State's Milan Momcilovic was named Big 12 Player of the Week after leading the Cyclones to their win at Purdue, while Baylor's Tounde Yessoufou was named the Big 12 Newcomer of the Week. No Arizona players were among the Big 12's "starting five" of honors this week, though the Wildcats had nominated Jaden Bradley for Player of the Week and Koa Peat for Newcomer of the Week.
— In the NCAA’s computerized NET ratings through games played Sunday, Arizona ranked No. 6 behind No. 1 Michigan, followed by Duke, Iowa State, Gonzaga and Vanderbilt.
— The Wildcats are 3-0 in Quad 1 games – with wins over Florida, UCLA and UConn – while their win over Auburn qualified as a Quad 2 game because the Tigers are ranked 34 in the NET, below the 1-25 range needed for an opponent to become a Quad 1 opportunity for a team hosting it.
