Here are three things to watch in tonight’s Arizona-Utah game at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City (7 p.m., Fox Sports 1), plus a score prediction and some pertinent preview links:
1. THE CASE FOR KHALIL
Many have asked me this week to explain Arizona’s four-game win streak vs. Utah. Every game and situation are different, but if there has been one common theme, it’s Arizona’s ability to run the ball. The Wildcats’ 158 yards last year represented their worst total in the four games; in the other three, they averaged 306. I believe Khalil Tate gives Arizona the best chance to run the ball effectively against Utah. Even if Brandon Dawkins is able to start, there’s no telling how long he’ll last; he could be one shot to the ribs from being sidelined again. Tate showed last week that he could make something out of nothing and make others around him better. It’s no coincidence that Tyrell Johnson had his best half as a running back with Tate as the quarterback. Or that Zach Green (who needs to play more) averaged 6 yards per carry. A healthy Tate gives Arizona a better chance to replicate its running success against Utah than an impaired Dawkins.
2. SPECIAL TREATMENT
They’ve emphasized it, they’ve worked on it, they’ve changed personnel. Will any of those efforts improve the Wildcats’ special teams? They couldn’t possibly be worse than last week, when repeated breakdowns cost Arizona any chance of hanging with UCLA. I can’t emphasize this point enough: When you have a talent deficit or a bunch of injuries – or both – you have to do all the little things right to win. Special-teams play falls under that category (as do third downs … and fourth downs). Arizona can’t expect to defeat the likes of Utah, USC and Stanford – the next three teams on its schedule – without at least holding serve on special teams. That’s been a consistent area of strength for the Utes under Kyle Whittingham. They rank first in the nation in net punting average (47.8), and longtime standout kicker Andy Phillips had made 7 of 9 field-goal attempts, including 2 of 3 from 40-plus yards. Oddly, Utah has been even worse than Arizona on kickoff returns, ranking last in the nation at 13.9 yards per return.
3. MUST-WIN GAME?
I didn’t get the sense this week that the banged-up Wildcats are carrying around a woe-is-me attitude; if anything, they ought to have a palpable sense of urgency tonight. Because if they don’t win one at least one of the next two games, they’ll be in serious jeopardy of not qualifying for a bowl game. Here’s the deal: If the Cats lose their next two, they’ll be 2-5 entering their bye. They would need to win four of their final five to get to 6-6. The post-bye schedule features Stanford (bad matchup for Arizona), Washington State (unpredictable, but won in Tucson last year), Colorado (possibly the most-improved team in the country), Oregon State (the worst team in the conference, but game’s in Corvallis in late November) and Arizona State (beatable). Split one of these next two – which would do wonders for morale – and Arizona is 3-4 and only would need to go 3-2 after the bye to get to a bowl. The program probably should have higher expectations, but I’m trying to be realistic here. It’s not unreasonable to expect an all-out effort at a critical juncture in the season.
FINAL SCORE: Utah 26, Arizona 20
PREVIEW LINKS:
It could be Tate time when Arizona visits Utah
Greg Hansen: It's been a generation since Arizona saw someone like Tate
UA-UCLA Hot Sheet: On drawing flags, third-down efficiency, QB history
